FantasyDraft NFL Expert Survey: Week 16
Want to know who Notorious is definitely paying up for in NFL DFS this week? Wondering which value play STLCardinals84 is eyeing most? You’re in luck. Our daily fantasy sports experts will answer a handful of questions to help you make crucial lineup building decisions for this week’s main slate contests.
Week 16 – Main Slate
Who is your favorite player for cash games?
Who is your favorite player for tournaments?
Who is your favorite salary saver on the board?
Which high-priced player will you have little to no exposure to in tournaments?
Who’s your top contrarian play on the board?
Which low-priced chalk player are you most likely to have little to no exposure to?
Which low-priced chalk player are you most likely to have heavy exposure to?
Which player are you most afraid of being underweight on compared to the field?
Which skill position players (if any) are you targeting versus an elite defense?
Which NFL team are you targeting players from the most?
MrTuttle: DAL but largely spread out
Davis Mattek: LAR
Which NFL team are you looking to avoid most?
Stevietpfl: MIA (except DEF)
Davis Mattek: ARI
What’s the best position to spend up on this week?
Notorious: RB #1
STLCardinals84: WR #1
meansy53: RB #1
Stevietpfl: RB #1
Davis Mattek: RB 1
What’s the best position to save salary on this week?
Notorious: WR #2
STLCardinals84: RB #2
meansy53: RB #2
Stevietpfl: WR #2
Davis Mattek: RB 2 & 3
Which game has sneaky shootout potential this week?
Davis Mattek: NYG/IND
Which position will you have the most exposure to in FLEX?
Davis Mattek: RB
Which useful trend or statistic stuck out most during your research?
Notorious: The second rendition of the Hue Jackson should be a lopsided one. The Bengals are playing on the road against a good defense and are expected to be without their two best receivers in A.J. Green and Tyler Boyd. This is a tremendous setup for Nick Chubb, who racked up 31 touches and 28 fantasy points in his first game against the Bengals nearly a month ago.
STLCardinals84: Over the first seven games of the season, Tampa Bay allowed 97 rushing yards per game. Over the last seven games of the season, Tampa Bay has allowed 159 rushing yards per game. This is a great bounce-back spot for Ezekiel Elliott after the Cowboy offense was a dumpster fire against the Colts in Week 15.
MrTuttle: The narrative surrounding Julio is that he kills the Panthers but that narrative is largely driven by a singular game in 2016 where Jones caught 12 balls for 300 yards and a TD. His game log versus the Panthers since that game: 4/60, 6/118, 5/80, 5/64.
meansy53: Amongst teams on the Main Slate, no one has given up more fantasy points to opposing tight ends than the Cincinnati Bengals (147). The next closest team is the Miami Dolphins (131).
Stevietpfl: Atlanta allows the most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks, and the third most fantasy points per opposing running backs. The Bengals allow the second most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks, and the most fantasy points per game to opposing running backs.
Davis Mattek: The Falcons have tried every way they can to not use Tevin Coleman as an every down back in 2018. Devonta Freeman started the year as the lead runner and Ito Smith admirably filled in for his Freeman once he was sent to the injured reserve. Ito is now on the IR himself and Brian Hill, who has 4 carries and 0 targets this season, is the backup to Coleman. While Jamaal Williams will be heavy chalk (and Elijah McGuire), I expect this game against Carolina to be Coleman’s highest usage game of the year.
What’s your hot take of the week?
Notorious: Nick Chubb rushes for 200 yards and two touchdowns.
MrTuttle: Robert Woods tops 100 yards and scores two touchdowns.
meansy53: JuJu Smith-Schuster goes for at least 150 yards receiving and two touchdowns.
Stevietpfl: Taylor Heinicke puts up at least 20 fantasy points.
Davis Mattek: Josh Reynolds leads the Rams in receiving with 100+ yards and a touchdown.
What is your favorite correlation of the week and why?
Notorious: Nick Chubb with the Browns’ defense – Last week’s correlation play didn’t work out as expected. The Jaguars decided to limit Leonard Fournette workload and the Jaguars’ defense forgot to show up. I feel much better about this week’s correlation play, as the Browns are playing good football and are still technically alive in the playoff hunt. They are playing at home against a short-handed Bengals’ team that has been one of the worst defensive units in football this season. Chubb should see 20+ touches as a home favorite and the defense should be in a favorable game script.
STLCardinals84: Drew Brees to Michael Thomas – Many people will likely be off this combination given that the Saints have scuffled a bit in the passing game lately. In addition, the Steelers are fresh off shutting down Tom Brady and company. However, this is a game with a very high total, and the Saints are generally a much more potent offense at home. This is a fine spot to bank on a breakout at ownership that will be much lower than it would have been had this game been played a month ago.
MrTuttle: Jared Goff + Robert Woods – This one isn’t for the faint of heart and is best reserved for GPPs. The Rams offense, and specifically Goff, have been poor offensively since Cooper Kupp was placed on IR but this is a great rebound spot for the passing game. Despite the recent underwhelming stretch the Rams still have the highest implied team total of the slate at 29.25 and a banged up and questionable Todd Gurley could lead to a reliance on Goff and his weapons. Robert Woods has been the Rams primary slot receiver in Kupp’s absence which should lead to favorable matchups away from Patrick Peterson who has lined up in slot coverage only 12 times this season.
meansy53: Ben Roethlisberger & JuJu Smith-Schuster – If we just look at JuJu’s final box score from last week against the Pats (only 4 receptions for 40 yards), it looks pretty disappointing. However, he still led all Steelers pass-catchers with 10 targets (Antonio Brown had seven). And over the course of the past four weeks, he has almost a 28% market share of the targets, with Antonio Brown checking in at right around 23%. In the game featuring the highest over/under on the slate by a wide margin, I have no problem going back to the well with these two.
Stevietpfl: Taylor Heinicke & Christian McCaffrey – The Panthers are shutting down Cam Newton, and they haven’t officially been eliminated from the playoffs. Atlanta has really struggled against quarterbacks this season, and they’ve allowed multiple passing touchdowns in eight games this season. For the last two seasons, they’ve really struggled with pass catching running backs. McCaffrey had 14 catches for 102 yards in the first meeting this season. With a young quarterback, I like the upside for Cmac in the passing game.
Davis Mattek: Deshaun Watson & DeAndre Hopkins – Despite Hopkins coming off of a massive performance last Saturday against the Jets, early ownership projections only put him at around 12% ownership. This game matters for both teams in terms of playoff contention, so I expect starters to play the whole way, and Philly’s lack of defensive back health is almost legendary at this point. Hopkins has one of the best Air Yards and market share receiving profiles of any player in the league. This is an easy tournament stack to make.
Who is your top overall play (when considering price, matchup, projected ownership, etc.) on the board and why?
Notorious: Ezekiel Elliott – The Cowboys put up a dud last week against the Colts, yet Zeke still managed to score 18 fantasy points. Dallas now returns home for a prime bounce-back matchup against the Buccaneers, who are ranked 31st in DVOA against the run. When it comes to running backs, we like to target high-volume players on teams that are favored. Check. At this time of year, we like to target players from teams that have something to play for. Check. Zeke checks all the boxes and is the top overall play of the slate.
STLCardinals84: Ezekiel Elliott – I’m going right back to the well even after last week. I’ve already touched on how poor Tampa Bay’s rush defense has been in the second half of the season, and Dallas desperately needs to win this game. Despite the Cowboys not scoring a single point last week, Elliott still logged 128 total yards and caught seven passes. He’s primed for a rebound here and is one of the top options on the Week 16 slate.
MrTuttle: Ezekiel Elliott – I strayed from the consensus last week and listed Dalvin Cook as my favorite overall play over Zeke but I’ve got to agree with the group this week on Elliott. The Colts impressively held the Cowboys to 0 points last week but Zeke was still able to post 19.8 DK points and 16.3 FD points thanks to his continued heavy ivolvement as both a rusher and receiver. In fact, even though Zeke hasn’t scored a touchdown in each of the last two weeks he’s still averaging 27 DK points and 20.75 FD points over that span. I would expect Zeke to find pay dirt in a very favorable home matchup against the Bucs this week but he’s still a top RB play on the slate if he doesn’t.
meansy53: Ezekiel Elliott – Despite the Cowboys eating a nice donut last week against the Colts, Zeke still racked up another 25 touches. That was the sixth straight week with at least 25 touches, with a few of those games topping 30. Oh, and not to mention the 40 touches he got in overtime two weeks ago against Philly. He continues to pile up a ton of targets (21 over the past two weeks) and plenty of redzone opportunities. I suppose we saw his floor last week against Indy, so what do ya say we see his ceiling this week against Tampa Bay?
Stevietpfl: Nick Chubb – The Bengals have allowed over 100 yards rushing in seven of the last ten games, and at least one rushing touchdown in eight of those games. They’ve allowed at least one rushing touchdown in 10 of 14 games. Chubb had a massive game in week 12 against them, and I love his upside/floor in this matchup. With him being priced up this weekend, I’d expect lower ownership for him.
Davis Mattek: Ezekiel Elliott – Last week, the Cowboys were shut out and defeated by 23 points, yet Elliott still managed to grind out 18 DraftKings points. If that doesn’t tell you all that you need to know about why he is the best play in daily fantasy at the moment, then I am not sure what will convince you. Almost every other running back’s team has an audible gameplan where they can use different players and progress the ball different ways, but that is just not accurate for Zeke. He leads the NFL in touches, yards from scrimmage and actually has projected touchdown regression in his favor. Zeke is an easy play in Week 16.
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