FantasyDraft NFL Expert Survey: Week 6
Want to know who Notorious is definitely paying up for in NFL DFS this week? Wondering which value play STLCardinals84 is eyeing most? You’re in luck. Our daily fantasy sports experts will answer a handful of questions to help you make crucial lineup building decisions for this week’s main slate contests.
Week 6 – Main Slate
Who is your favorite player for cash games?
Who is your favorite player for tournaments?
Who is your favorite salary saver on the board?
Which high-priced player will you have little to no exposure to in tournaments?
Who’s your top contrarian play on the board?
Which low-priced chalk player are you most likely to have little to no exposure to?
Which low-priced chalk player are you most likely to have heavy exposure to?
Which player are you most afraid of being underweight on compared to the field?
Which skill position players (if any) are you targeting versus an elite defense?
Which NFL team are you targeting players from the most?
Davis Mattek: PIT
Which NFL team are you looking to avoid most?
Davis Mattek: BUF
What’s the best position to spend up on this week?
Davis Mattek: RB
What’s the best position to save salary on this week?
Davis Mattek: WR
Which game has sneaky shootout potential this week?
Davis Mattek: LAR/DEN
Which position will you have the most exposure to in FLEX?
Davis Mattek: RB
Which useful trend or statistic stuck out most during your research?
Notorious: This might be the last James Conner game that we see where he gets a full workload. He made 12 tacklers miss last week against the Falcons, which was a feat that Le’Veon Bell only accomplished one time in his career. Conner draws an exploitable matchup against the Bengals, who are ranked 23rd in DVOA against the run and 26th in DVOA against pass-catching running backs. We know Big Ben struggles on the road, so we could see another 25+ touch game from Conner.
STLCardinals84: Of all starting wide receivers in the NFL, the leaders in targeted air yards per attempt are John Brown, Kenny Stills, and Mike Williams. All three are dirt cheap in DFS formats and offer intriguing GPP upside despite relatively tough matchups this week. Brown is one of my favorite plays, as he has shown great chemistry with Joe Flacco, and I expect the Ravens to bounce back from a woeful offensive performance last week with a big game against the Titans. Brown is averaging 20.1 air yards per target and makes for a phenomenal GPP option this week.
MrTuttle: Ricky Seals-Jones leads the Cardinals in targets (10) and market share of air yards (33.9%) in the two games that Josh Rosen has started. The Vikings rank 31st in DVOA defending the TE position.
meansy53: Todd Gurley has 32 rushes inside the twenty-yard line (the next closest is Alvin Kamara at 20). Todd Gurley has 22 rushes inside the ten-yard line (Kamara is next at 15). Todd Gurley has 10 rushes inside the five-yard line (Carlos Hyde is a close second at 9).
Stevietpfl: Minnesota is throwing the ball 48 times per game this season, which is third most in the NFL. Adam Thielen has a 100% snap share this season and is running 53% of his routes in the slot. He should avoid Patrick Peterson this weekend, and he leads the NFL with 66 targets (13.2 targets per game). Thielen is top ten in receptions, receiving yards, air yards, red zone catches, touchdowns, and fantasy points per game.
Davis Mattek: With all of the furor on Twitter about Defenses Not Mattering, I actually learned something. The inventor of the Air Yards model that has become so commonplace in fantasy football actually uses a 3-week rolling model for his Air Yards buy low model. When you run that screen over the last 3 weeks, no one is even close to John Brown. Brown has 603 Air Yards on 30 targets and should be heavily considered for cash games this week.
What’s your hot take of the week?
STLCardinals84: At least five running backs outscore Todd Gurley in terms of fantasy points this week.
MrTuttle: Ricky Seals-Jones scores two touchdowns.
meansy53: Russell Wilson is a top two fantasy QB in Week 6.
Stevietpfl: Todd Gurley goes for 200+ total yards and at least two touchdowns
Davis Mattek: James Conner gets ignored by fantasy owners because the Steelers are on the road and has another absolute smash, RB1 day.
What is your favorite correlation of the week and why?
Notorious: ATL/TB game stack — Jameis Winston is one of the top point-per-dollar plays at any position and will be one of my heaviest owned players of the week. I love pairing him up with Mike Evans, who has had at least five catches in five straight games against the Falcons (with six touchdowns during that span). You can bring it back with Julio Jones (who has ten career touchdowns againts Tampa Bay) and either Austin Hooper, Calvin Ridley, or Tevin Coleman. If Devonta Freeman is unable to suit up, Coleman will likely be the final piece in my game stack.
STLCardinals84: Andy Dalton to A.J. Green – The Steelers made a statement with a big win last week, but this is still a team that is allowing 27 points per game and 296 yards per game through the air, both of which rank them in the bottom third in the NFL. The Bengals are playing great football right now and have an implied team total of 28 points, but yet nobody seems to be talking about their offense. The Steelers have consistently gotten beat via big plays, and I absolutely love A.J. Green in this spot. With everyone talking up Julio Jones in the same price range, Green makes for a fantastic GPP pivot.
MrTuttle: Jameis Winston + Mike Evans + Cameron Brate + Julio Jones – It’s unsurprising that the game with a total of 57.5 is the most common answer for the favorite correlation play of the week. In DraftKings cash games, it’s likely that lineup construction will contain three of these four players provided O.J. Howard is limited or unable to suit up this week. We’ve been here before with Julio Jones a couple of times already this season but despite his lack of touchdown production he’s still seeing tremendous opportunity and leads the league with a .77 weighted opportunity rating. Mike Evans isn’t far behind on that list, ranking eigth in the league with a .63 WOPR. Stacking players in a projected high scoring game who are seeing some of the best opportunity in the league is just common sense. I will say that projected ownership on players from this game is so high that it does make sense to take a stand away from this game in large field GPP’s.
meansy53: Jameis Winston and Cameron Brate – Winston and Brate are likely to be pretty chalky in Week 6, but their cheap price tags across the industry and the elite matchup are going to make it difficult to pass up. The obvious place to start here is that this game has one of the highest over/unders that we will see all season (57.5). The Falcons defense has a lot to do with that, as it currently ranks 31st in overall defense DVOA and 28th in pass defense DVOA through the first five weeks of the season. Furthermore, Brate has always performed better from a fantasy perspective with Winston under center. There are a bunch of different ways you can go here to stack this side up by adding another pass-catcher or two (e.g. Evans in the expensive range; Godwin in the cheap range).
Stevietpfl: Andy Dalton and A.J. Green – Pittsburgh has allowed over 300-yards passing in four straight games and have allowed multiple passing touchdowns in three of those four games. They’re allowing 83.5 yards per game to opposing WR1 this season. A.J. Green has 11 end zone targets this season, and he has a 64.7% end zone target share, which is the third highest in the NFL.
Davis Mattek: Jameis Winston / Mike Evans / Cameron Brate. The Bucs offense was phenomenal for 12 quarters until the Bears game, and it had nothing to do with Fitzpatrick and almost everything to do with play-caller Todd Monken. Monken doesn’t care about 5-yard plays; he wants 25 yard plays. Cameron Brate’s splits with and without Winston for his career are remarkable.
Who is your top overall play (when considering price, matchup, projected ownership, etc.) on the board and why?
Notorious: Julio Jones – If I recommend him enough, eventually I will be right. Jokes aside, I have a hard time seeing him fail in this matchup. He runs 83% of his routes outside, so he’ll match up against Carlton Davis and Brent Grimes, who are both in the bottom ten in QB rating allowed when thrown their way. Add in the fact that he’s the squeaky wheel and that he has ten career touchdowns against the Buccs (five more than any other team) and it’s time for the big man to find the endzone.
STLCardinals84: Christian McCaffrey – The Carolina running back has simply become one of the most consistent fantasy performers in the league. Despite having just one total touchdown on the season to date, he has accrued the following fantasy point totals in full PPR formats: 14, 31, 24, 20. We can live with an average of 22.25 fantasy points per week for anyone, especially since McCaffrey doesn’t quite command the price tag of a guy like Todd Gurley or Alvin Kamara. This week’s matchup is a fine one against a Redskins team that is playing on a short week and got trounced by the Saints on Monday night. McCaffrey has a great combination of floor and ceiling and is a fine option in any format.
MrTuttle: Julio Jones – Jones is the guy receiving the most opportunity on the team with the highest implied total on the slate. Julio leads the league with a .77 weighted opportunity rating and gets a tremendous matchup against a Tampa Bay defense that ranks dead last in pass DVOA. Julio tops all WR/CB matchup charts as the trio of Carlton Davis, M.J. Stewart and Brent Grimes attempt to slow #11 down. Jones is averaging 19.5 DK points per game this season in receptions + yardage alone – with those numbers, any touchdown scored is just a cherry on top.
meansy53: James Conner – There is plenty of depth at the running back position in Week 6, so my hope is that ownership remains somewhat tame on Conner despite a big Week 5 and high total in this game. He continues to get bellcow usage in the Pittsburgh backfield, racking up 25 touches in Week 5. In addition, the goalline work is there as well, as he has the third most rushes in the league inside the five-yard line (6). Throw in a Bengals defense that gives up the seventh most targets and receptions to the running back position, and Conner checks all boxes for me once again.
Stevietpfl: A.J. Green – For all the reasons I said above with the correlation. I really like this game, and I’d expect this matchup to be one of the highest scoring games on the weekend. With ATL/TB getting a ton of buzz, I’d be shocked if Green gets over 15%.
Davis Mattek: Julio Jones – The best running backs are priced up a little this week and the best WR play on the board is priced down on DK and FD. Despite any of our misgivings about Jones’ ability to score touchdowns, he is still third in the NFL in air yards, has the highest market share of any team’s air yards, and he is first in the NFL in weighted opportunity ranking. It’s certainly possible that all of these numbers are wrong and don’t mean anything, but I am not of that mind. The Falcons have the highest team total on the slate, Jones is their most involved offensive player and the Buccaneers have been an extremely giving defense for all of the 2018 season.
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