Farmers Insurance Open One and Done Picks: Chalk or Pass? (2026)
Editor’s Note: This is a guest post from PoolGenius, whose subscribers have reported more than $10,000,000 in pool winnings across all sports using their tools.
If you’re researching Farmers Insurance Open One and Done picks this week, the decision is less about finding the best golfer, and more about not using the wrong one too early.
The 2026 Farmers Insurance Open heads to Torrey Pines with a wide-open field and no Scottie Scheffler, but it still sits firmly in the second tier of PGA Tour prize money, with a $9.6 million purse and $1.674 million to the winner.
That makes this another week where smart One and Done strategy is about balancing win equity against future value, not just chasing the shortest odds.
The Shortcut to Smarter Golf One and Done Picks
The PoolGenius Golf One and Done Picks Optimizer pulls together win odds, performance data, and season-planning context into one place.
More importantly, it addresses the question that causes the most early-season mistakes in One and Done pools: should you use a golfer now, or save them for later?
That decision is rarely obvious just by looking at odds or recent form. Without understanding how a pick fits into the entire season, it’s easy to make a choice that looks good this week but creates regret down the road.
That’s the gap the PoolGenius tool is designed to close.
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Farmers Insurance Open Odds to Win
Here are the top golfers by outright win odds for the Farmers Insurance Open as of Monday afternoon, January 26:
- Xander Schauffele +1400
- Ludvig Aberg +1600
- Cameron Young +2000
- Jason Day +2200
- Si Woo Kim +2200
- Patrick Cantlay +2500
- Hideki Matsuyama +2500
- J.J. Spaun +2500
With no Scheffler in the field, Schauffele leads the odds board, followed closely by Aberg, who has already shown he can contend on the South Course at Torrey Pines.
Beyond the very top, the odds flatten quickly. That matters in One and Done pools, because small differences in win probability often pale in comparison to how much future value you give up by using a golfer too early.
Past winners are also present, including defending champion Harris English and two-time winner Jason Day, though none enter as overwhelming favorites.
Best Farmers Insurance Open Golf One and Done Picks
This is where PGA One and Done strategy really comes into focus.
Should You Take the Chalk?
On paper, golfers like Xander Schauffele, Ludvig Aberg, Patrick Cantlay, and Hideki Matsuyama all look perfectly reasonable. They sit near the top of the odds board and have the talent to win at Torrey Pines.
The issue is not talent, it’s timing.
We currently rank the Farmers Insurance Open 22nd in total prize money on the PGA Tour schedule. As a general rule of thumb in One and Done pools, that means you ideally want to use a golfer who is ranked 22nd or worse in overall future value.
Viewed through that lens, many of the biggest names this week fall right on the chopping block.
They are strong win candidates, but they are also golfers you are very likely to want later, when purses are larger, and the leverage of each pick increases dramatically. Using them here often means trading away long-term upside for only a modest gain.
In many pool formats, that tradeoff simply isn’t worth it.
Other Picks Worth Considering
If you want upside at Torrey Pines while protecting future value, these golfers profile much better for this spot.
Keegan Bradley: Bradley sits right around the No. 22 mark in future value rankings, making him a reasonable fit for a tournament at this prize level. He offers legitimate win equity without the opportunity cost of the elite tier.
Harris English: The defending champion fits a similar profile. His overall season value places him near the cut line, making him far more reasonable to deploy here than at a higher-purse event later on.
Chris Gotterup: Gotterup profiles as a future value saver. He has enough upside to contend this week, but using him now is unlikely to create regret when Signature Events and majors arrive.
Ryan Gerard: Gerard fits the same mold as Gotterup. In pools where preserving elite options is a priority, he offers a disciplined One and Done play with built-in flexibility.
Get Your Golf One and Done Picks and Season Plan in One Place
One of the biggest challenges in Golf One and Done pools isn’t finding good picks, it’s understanding how your pick compares to the rest of the pool.
Most players are looking at odds and recent results. Fewer are accounting for pick popularity, which is where real leverage is created. Choosing a golfer who finishes near the top is good. Choosing one who does that while fewer people roster him is even better.
At the same time, it’s hard to manage all of this manually:
- Which golfers you’ve already used
- Which tournaments still offer the most prize money
- How much future value you give up with each pick
- Where popularity creates opportunity or risk
The PoolGenius Golf One and Done Picks Tool handles all of that in one place. It combines win equity, future value, and projected pick popularity into a single pick grade, then pairs it with a season planner that shows the downstream impact of every decision.
That means you’re not just picking a golfer for this week, you’re making a pick that fits your entire season.
It’s the fastest way to make a confident decision at the Farmers Insurance Open and avoid regret when the biggest purses arrive.