Film Room: NFL Week 3
Are The Seattle Seahawks Vulnerable to Tight Ends?
The “Legion of Boom” has been all the rage since the Seahawks made their dominant run to the Super Bowl last season, and when they opened 2014 with a big win against Green Bay, forcing Aaron Rodgers out of his element, it seemed like more of the same in their follow-up campaign this year.
But then, the Chargers happened. And not just the Chargers, but one look from the San Diego offense, and the Seattle defense was exposed for four quarters in a high-scoring loss.
Gates ended the game with seven catches for 96 yards and three scores, and a majority of those yards, and all of those scores, came on the same look from the San Diego offense. Have the Chargers found the soft spot in the Seattle defense?
This is the look that gave the Seahawks all sorts of fits against the Chargers. San Diego isolated Antonio Gates on one side of the formation with Danny Woodhead as a back on his side of the field. The other receivers were trips to the opposite side of the formation.
Why is this formation important? As we saw in Week 1 against Green Bay, the Seahawks have very rigid rules about who lines up where in certain coverages and packages. Richard Sherman doesn’t follow top receivers, but against San Diego, he showed that he does follow receivers if there are none on his side of the field.
So by stacking receivers to one side, Sherman and all of the cornerbacks for Seattle are taken out of the play. Gates is then left with the challenge of going up against linebackers and safeties, and even though Seattle has talent at both positions, most NFL tight ends are drafted and trained to beat these players in coverage.
As the play develops, notice the route combination on Gates’ side of the field. The Chargers bring Danny Woodhead out of the backfield, and run him to the middle of the field on an angle route. This forces the help defenders on the right side of the offensive formation to choose between Gates and Woodhead.
On this particular play, that means leaving Gates one-on-one with Kam Chancellor, as the other defenders stay at home to ensure Woodhead doesn’t get a free run over the middle of the field.
The deep safety is stuck helping on the trips side of the field, and is already out of the play, despite seeing Rivers winding up to throw to Gates.
Gates gets away with a bit of a push, and holds Chancellor off right around the five-yard mark (where contact becomes illegal for receivers and defensive backs) and is led into the end zone for a score. Gates has been praised for years for his body control and positioning, thought to be a byproduct of his basketball background. This is just another example of the power forward mentality of a basketballer-turned-tight-end.
Another red zone possession, another of the same playcall for the Chargers. This time, they’re going to send a receiver right up the seam at the deep safety to ensure that he doesn’t come to Gates’ side of the field.
And with Woodhead still running his crucial angle route, the help defender on Gates’ side of the field is drawn away, giving Gates plenty of room to get position against the linebacker covering him on the play.
Philip Rivers is able to buy time in the pocket, and that means Gates can fight his way upfield, and then break into open space for a good touch pass for a score. The safety couldn’t get over in time to help, and a linebacker isn’t going to cover Gates in space.
One last touchdown for Gates means one last example of the same exact play beating the “Legion of Boom” for six. The play is flipped this time, and there is a safety shaded more toward Gates this time, but Woodhead’s angle route and the seam route of Eddie Royal will draw him up the field and out of the play.
And as soon as Gates gets a one-on-one with a linebacker, he’s gone. Rivers again has to buy time in the pocket, but stays alive long enough to lob one up for Gates.
And the safety, who had three receivers on the other side of the field to deal with, simply cannot get there in time, and it’s a third score for the veteran tight end.
This week the Seahawks face former basketball player, now tight end Julius Thomas and the Broncos, who will certainly have similar looks and plays in their playbook, since Adam Gase was once the QB coach under Mike McCoy, the head coach of the Chargers.
Thomas is one of Peyton Manning’s favorite red zone targets, and it’s clear that the Seahawks did not respect one of the best tight ends of all time in the red zone with any special coverage, so it’s unlikely that they’d do the so for Thomas, especially considering the respect that the receivers for Denver command.
The Broncos must protect Peyton Manning better than they did in the Super Bowl for any of this to matter, but if number 18 has time, he may find himself seeing plenty of good looks to Thomas in the red zone should Denver isolate him as the Chargers did with Gates.
Most fantasy players will fade Denver against the Seahawks, but if you’re looking for a contrarian play in daily fantasy this week, Julius Thomas might be the guy. He has the size and athleticism to beat any of the linebackers and safeties for the Seahawks, and if Denver can draw up the right route combinations for him, he’ll almost certainly score in what should be a very interesting game to watch.
Is Kirk Cousins a Smart Option at Quarterback?
When a backup quarterback gets a start in daily fantasy football, it’s almost always worth a look. Being able to load up on the skill positions while punting at QB with a low-priced backup forced into a starting role can certainly win both cash games and tournaments. (My biggest cash to date was with Josh McCown under center last season.)
And with a matchup against the Eagles on deck, many fans will gravitate towards Washington quarterback Kirk Cousins, who has the aura of “really good backup quarterback” about him that really isn’t justified.
Among quarterbacks with 200 or more passing attempts since 2000, Cousins ranks 99th, one spot below Vince Young, with names like Tim Tebow, David Carr, Brooks Bollinger and Todd Bouman ahead of him on the list.
But people seem to remember his positive moments in relief of Robert Griffin III, and his solid performances against the 2012 Browns (who allowed 34% more fantasy points to QB than the average defense) and 2013 Falcons (who allowed 31% more QB points than the average defense) and believe that he’s a fantasy goldmine just waiting to be rushed.
He’s not.
Let’s take a look at one example from his most recent performance against the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Cousins has DeSean Jackson breaking into space with a defensive back short and a defensive back to the inside. The Washington QB has all the space in the world to lead Jackson outside and down the field for what could be a big play and a score.
Instead, the play results in an incomplete pass and an injury to Jackson as the ball is thrown short, and the safety is able to catch up and make a play.
But that was a really deep throw, and while that’s certainly something Robert Griffin III does effortlessly, it might not be Cousins’ forte. Let’s try throwing under pressure.
Here Cousins is in a collapsing pocket, and has chosen to throw off of awkward footing to a receiver near the sideline and several yards downfield.
It’s nearly intercepted by an underneath defender….
And then nearly intercepted by the primary defender, who had perfect position on the assumed intended receiver, Pierre Garcon.
Cousins looked to his right before coming back to his left on that play, and no matter which receiver he was trying to hit, his decision and his execution were very poor.
How about a throw not under pressure from defenders, but in a clutch moment in a game?
Down 14-6 against Dallas in Week 16 last season, in the second quarter with just 52 seconds remaining, Washington was driving inside the Cowboys 40. Cousins drops back on 3rd-and-10 and has plenty of time to throw. Here’s what he produces on a key play on the edge of field goal range.
Santana Moss breaks free of his man, and Cousins winds up to throw to his open receiver.
But the throw is behind Moss, and tipped up in the air for an interception.
FOX’s John Lynch said of Cousins after that play “The common denominator with his picks have not been decisions.” And while I disagree, as Cousins definitely makes some bad decisions, he also shows very poor ball placement and accuracy, which leads to interceptions like the one that occurred on the play above.
Here’s another example of Cousins missing on a throw that could have produced a score.
Pierre Garcon has a step on his defender, but Cousins simply leaves the ball too far out in front of him, and it falls incomplete. This play would have been a decent gain, if not a score, were the ball thrown accurately and placed in Garcon’s path.
Cousins reminds me a lot of Tampa Bay quarterback Mike Glennon, as both have a lack of accuracy and ball placement and struggle under pressure, yet show moments of brilliance (especially against bad defenses) and earn praise across the league for a small subset of their passes.
The Washington QB certainly “looks the part,” which helps add to his growing urban legend status, but the reality about Cousins is that he’s not a very good quarterback, and he folds under both literal and figurative pressure.
My example above from the game against Jacksonville provides proof as to his struggles under pressure from defenders, but he’s also weak under the pressure of the clock and the reality of the game. Last season, Cousins had a QB Rating of 85.1 in the first half, but it fell to a horrible 42.4 in the second half.
And against his own division last season, his QB rating was 48.5, with one touchdown and three interceptions.
In Week 3 of 2014, he faces the Eagles, who are a better defense than the Jaguars, and who are a division foe in what should be a high-pressure game. In other words, don’t expect much from Kirk Cousins this week, or any week in which he isn’t playing a very weak opposing defense.
A Quick Note on Shane Vereen and Stevan Ridley
One of the biggest headaches in fantasy football is the usage of Shane Vereen and Stevan Ridley for the New England Patriots. I was requested to look into Vereen and Ridley’s usage, and it doesn’t seem to be as complicated as many make it out to be.
Ridley is benched when he fumbles, which casts an undeterminable shadow of doubt over his usage in any given week. But why was he used so infrequently in Week 1, and then so heavily in Week 2 of 2014?
Against the Miami Dolphins in Week 1, Ridley had 8 carries for 21 yards. Six of those carries came in the first half, which the Patriots “won” 20-10. He barely saw the field in the second half, getting only two more carries (plus one wiped out by a penalty), while Shane Vereen and the “passing offense” dominated the snap count.
Vereen is a more versatile weapon for New England in the passing game, as he blocks well and is a receiving threat, so he’ll play in shootouts and games where New England falls behind.
So far this season, Patriots tailbacks have carried the ball 38 times while their team has been in the lead or tied, and Ridley has 27 of those carries. But when the team has been losing this season, Ridley has only 6 of 14 carries, and only two targets in the passing game.
The Patriots like to create matchup problems on offense, particularly when they throw the ball, which means Vereen is the preferred back in passing situations. He’s capable in all phases of the offense, which keeps a defense off guard.
Ridley will play his fair share of snaps (assuming he holds onto the ball), but a majority of his work will come with New England has the lead. Which means checking the Vegas line for the Patriots game, rather than watching any film, will be your best bet in predicting which back will get more usage.