Film Room: NFL Week 4
Should You Punt With the Rookie Quarterbacks?
As bye weeks start to roll in, there are fewer matchups every week to exploit. With three games off the docket this week, as six teams aren’t playing, we don’t have quite as many games to choose from.
Which is why we’re very fortunate in Week 4 of the 2014 NFL season to have two rookie quarterbacks starting their first career game against weaker defenses. Blake Bortles and Teddy Bridgewater are both slated to take the first snap for the Jaguars and Vikings this week, giving DFS players two viable punt plays at quarterback.
So let’s take a look at both, considering their pre-draft profiles and their NFL debut performances, and figure out if either, or both, are worth your DFS salary dollars.
Blake Bortles
Coming out of college, I saw Blake Bortles as the second best QB in the class, just behind Teddy Bridgewater, but with a higher upside. He had bigger flaws, but more untapped potential, and showed signs of being an Andrew Luck or Ben Roethlisberger-type of playmaker under center in the NFL.
But there were issues that needed to be sorted out, mainly with his mechanics and footwork, and those were the reasons why it made sense to let him sit and work with his coaches on correcting his flaws and getting everything in order before stepping onto the field in the NFL.
The preseason revealed that Bortles’ flaws weren’t enough to hold him back at the NFL level, as he impressed during the exhibition games and put pressure on his coaches to give him a shot as a rookie. But the team stuck with Chad Henne until last week, when the veteran was finally awful enough to bench and replace with the UCF product.
So how did Bortles do? He was great, and he was poor, as he lived up to his college reputation with moments of brilliance and some moments of frustration en route to a two-score, two-interception day.
Let’s start with the bad news. One of Bortles’ interceptions was a deep throw down the sideline intended for Allen Robinson, who fell down in an attempt to come back for a ball thrown just a bit too far inside. Vontae Davis made a great play on the ball, and it was a fairly harmless interception on a deep throw.
But his other interception was a classic mistake, and one that he has struggled with in the past. Bortles is rolling to his right, and has a receiver “open” but is unable to pull the trigger right away.
By the time he does throw it, he hasn’t checked outside of the numbers yet, focusing only on his receiver on the inside. The defender responsible for the zone outside the numbers is sitting in wait for an easy pick.
Bortles had so much to think about on that play, that he simply failed to check everything he needed to check, scan everything he needed to scan, and make the right decision.
But he didn’t always make bad decisions when under pressure or on the run on Sunday.
On this particular play, Bortles is getting no help from his receivers, linemen or playcallers, as he’s left with no options after reaching the top of his dropback.
As you can see, a defender is breaking through his porous line and about to chase him down, but Bortles spots his opening, and steps up. He keeps his eyes downfield, but with his receivers still not breaking open…
He takes off and runs, and puts a really nice move on the defender to pick up extra yards. Running from the quarterback position is such a fantasy football asset, and with the cheap pricing on Bortles and Bridgewater this week, just 30-40 rushing yards will go a long way to meeting and exceeding value.
He doesn’t always run under pressure, however. On this play, Bortles is in trouble right off the snap.
Again, his coaches and teammates are doing him no favors, as he’s asked to run a bootleg to a side with two unblocked defenders who did not have time to overpursue the run fake.
However, Bortles makes a nice move of his own, and causes one of the Indy defenders to overpursue him toward the bootleg side, as he changes direction and uses his speed to pull away into open space.
He would square his shoulders and make a nice, touch pass down the sideline to an open tight end for a big gain.
The Jaguars also unveiled Bortles in the running game, using him in the read option on multiple occasions. He ran the play to perfection, as you’ll see here.
His job is to read the unblocked defender, in this case the edge rusher to his left. Since he crashed in, chasing the running back on the play, Bortles wisely keeps the ball and picks up 20 yards running into daylight to his left.
Bortles’ running ability was underrated coming out of college, as he was seen as a “traditional, drop back” passer. His athleticism is sufficient to provide a real running threat, similar to an Alex Smith or an Andrew Luck, and he’ll put that to use. This means he’s a safe play in DFS, as those rushing yards will give him a high floor, on top of his volume he’ll see as the QB for a bad team.
But the bad decisions are there, and the weapons and supporting cast are lacking. Because while Bortles wasn’t sacked as frequently as Chad Henne, he was still under fire quite a bit, and it will impact how he plays. The Jaguars are still a bit of a mess on offense, and the rookie QB will make his fair share of mistakes, so you may want to consider the other first-year signal caller this week…
Teddy Bridgewater
The only quarterback I had rated higher than Bortles in the 2014 NFL Draft was Bridgewater, who I saw as a Russell Wilson-like prospect who will run a methodical and careful offense with the occasional moment of brilliance.
He lived up to that billing in his first week under center, failing to register a touchdown or an interception, and generally managing an offense that he had yet to take first-team snaps with.
But his debut revealed why he’s such a solid option in fantasy football, and it’s thanks to improved players around him.
Just look at the opportunity provided to Bridgewater during his first game under center for the Vikings.
He has all day to throw, and that allows him to show off his best attribute, which is his ability to scan a defense and make the right throw. He has a great understanding of how an offense can exploit weaknesses in a defense, and he spots Greg Jennings breaking into open space as other defenders are occupied by other receivers.
Blake Bortles will never have that kind of time in the pocket, and does not have receivers like Patterson and Jennings to throw to on the outside.
But even when things break down, Teddy is just as capable as Blake of adapting on the fly and making a good play out of nothing.
Forced to his right, Teddy throws on the run…
And delivers a strike in a perfect spot for a catch, right along the sideline.
But it’s how Teddy gets himself into situations like the one seen above that’s so impressive. Coming out of last season, I believed Bortles had better pocket presence, but Bridgewater showed excellent poise and vision in the pocket this weekend.
As you can see here, Teddy is facing pressure from his right, but keeps the ball up and his eyes downfield, looking for an outlet.
He steps up, past the pressure, but is grabbed by a New Orleans lineman in the middle of the scrum at the top of his pocket.
Yet he still gets rid of a pass that finds its target perfectly for a decent gain over the middle. This fearless climbing of the pocket, all while keeping eyes downfield for a big play, is an essential skill for an NFL quarterback.
But what about when there’s no pocket to climb into?
Again, Teddy is facing pressure from his right, but on this occasion, doesn’t have a clean pocket to step up into. So he improvises, and is able to make something out of nothing.
The defender on the ground on the left is the one pressuring him from the right in the previous image. He made a man miss in the backfield, and kept the play alive.
And as more pressure arrived, he got outside of the rapidly collapsing protection scheme and shrugged off a pass rusher, and made a perfect throw to an open receiver on the sideline. (It was dropped, but it was still an incredible play.)
This is the sort of play that earned Johnny Manziel nicknames, endorsements and a Heisman, but Teddy is doing it in the NFL, against much tougher competition.
He also ran the ball a couple of times, and showed that he’s athletic enough to pick up yards on the ground. This is key, as it provides stability in his fantasy output, and helps him practically on the field by giving him the means to extend plays and look for big opportunities.
But what makes Teddy a better option this week in daily fantasy is his matchup (he faces the Falcons, who are still as bad on defense as you remember, despite beating down the hapless Buccaneers in Week 3), at home, with better talent around him.
Bortles faces a decent matchup with the Chargers, but the game is on the road, on the west coast. Combine that with his lacking supporting cast, and he’s much more of a boom-or-bust option, with “bust” looming large in a game where San Diego may dominate the time of possession.
If you’re feeling bold, you can certainly roll with Bortles, because these two players are both living up to their pre-draft profiles perfectly from a daily fantasy perspective. Blake is the higher-upside guy with a bigger chance to fail, while Teddy is safer, more methodical, and more likely to return on his investment.