Film Room Preview: Week 10
Why LeSean McCoy has a Dream Matchup this Weekend versus Carolina
All of the stars are aligning for LeSean McCoy this weekend, as he has a great matchup, returning offensive linemen, and a recent uptick in production. Plenty of daily fantasy football players will over-think putting McCoy into their lineups for some reason or another, but that’s simply being contrarian for contrarianism’s sake.
McCoy will have Evan Mathis back at guard to block for him, along with Jason Kelce, Jason Peters and Lane Johnson, who have been paving the way for McCoy’s 349 rushing yards over the past three games. And they’ll be blocking against a Carolina defense that has been awful against the run this season, allowing the third-most points per game to opposing running backs.
Let’s take a look at some of Carolina’s failures on the ground so far this year, to see what kind of success McCoy should be able to have against this defense.
Here’s just a very basic example of how the Carolina defense line doesn’t win in the trenches at all, and it allows the New Orleans offensive line to block the play as designed. The left tackle is going to get to the second level after helping his left guard block, and cut off Luke Kuechly from getting to the gap that’s opened up between the two blocking tight ends off left tackle.
One of the tight ends is unable to sustain his block, which closes the gap a bit, but the defender is unable to shed his blocker and get the tackle, which allows Mark Ingram to pick up even more yards with a bounce to the outside.
Ingram ran for 100 yards against the Panthers, but that was certainly not their most embarrassing moment of the season. The real shame for Carolina comes from their performance against the Steelers, when Le’Veon Bell and LeGarrette Blount combined for over 250 yards against them.
Here are a couple of examples of failures from the Carolina run defense in that game.
At the snap, the Carolina defenders notice a pulling guard moving to their right, so the linebackers will flow that direction. That’s fine, but they must also keep gap integrity, and not overshoot the portion of the line they’re responsible for covering just to pursue the apparent flow of the play.
As you can see here, by the time Bell has taken his first couple of steps with the ball, Kuechly has gone past the gap in the middle of the line, while offensive linemen hit the second level to make sure he and Thomas Davis don’t recover to fill the gap that Bell will make a cut and run through.
Bell then presses through the opening in the line and gets forward for a nice gain.
That was not the only time the Panthers got burned by failing to fill the gaps with their linebackers (and failing to get up the field with their defensive linemen to disrupt blocking schemes and the flow of the run). The next play was the biggest of the night for Pittsburgh, as Le’Veon Bell was able to flip the field with one big run from deep in Pittsburgh territory.
Before the ball is even handed off, Chase Blackburn, Luke Kuechly and safety Roman Harper are all eyeing the same gap in the defense, while Thomas Davis is leaning to his right to fill the gap on that side of the play. Again, this leaves the middle of the formation vulnerable as it was in the play above.
So by the time Bell cuts back and goes against the flow of the defense, he’s running away from three of the second-level defenders for Carolina, who were all chasing the general direction of the blocking and moved to the left of the formation. This means Thomas Davis is left trying to “stay at home” and cover everything from the right guard to the left tackle on his own. It’s a no win situaiton for Davis, who is criminally underrated as a player but can only do so much on this play.
One of the two linemen doubling up the Carolina defensive lineman gets up to block Davis, and now there’s no one capable of even getting a hand on Bell as he rumbles for a huge gain.
Here’s one final example of the Carolina defense failing to fill their gaps and create havoc in the backfield on a running play.
Here we’ll see LeGarrette Blount run on a cutback with the fullback crossing over to cut the backside defender to free up Blount’s path to the left of the formation. Notice the amount of blue shirts on the right of the offensive line, following what they believed to be the flow of the play, and getting stuck away from the run action moving to the offense’s left.
The cut block is timed and executed perfectly, and that leaves Blount one on one with a safety (Thomas DeCoud, who sticks in my mind as one of several players to whiff on tackles on Doug Martin during his fantastic 2012 campaign). The result here is similar to DeCoud’s effort against the Muscle Hamster two years ago.
A missed tackle tops off the poor showing by the Panther defense, and it ends in a touchdown for Pittsburgh.
The lack of gap discipline and penetration by defensive linemen means that Philadelphia’s beloved zone blocking concepts should work perfectly against the Carolina defense. Kuechly and the other Carolina linebacker’s propensity to follow the flow of the play and not stay at home in backside gaps will create plenty of cutback opportunities for LeSean McCoy this weekend.
Because one of the primary elements of the zone blocking scheme is to dictate to the defense which direction the play is going, and then choose a running path based on how they react. Carolina tends to overreact and get to the “play side” too quickly, meaning cutbacks will be on display on nearly every rushing attempt for Philadelphia.
But if the Panthers try to overcorrect this and stay at home, the strong Philadelphia offensive line will dominate the point of attack, and McCoy will be able to run through the holes they open up. The Panthers will have to find a way to win against their blockers at the line and stay at home at the linebacker position to have a prayer of stopping the Philly rushing attack, and I just don’t see that happening based on how Carolina has played this year.
The Rise of Martavis Bryant
The Pittsburgh Steelers spent a fourth-round pick on the other Clemson wide receiver in the 2014 Draft, Martavis Bryant, picking up a tall, red-zone capable receiver to go with their plethora of short receiving options. But Bryant didn’t crack the active roster for the first month of his NFL career, failing to see a target in an NFL game until Week 7 against Houston.
But once he was plugged into the Pittsburgh offense, he started performing as expected, providing a deep ball threat and a red zone presence that the other Steeler wide receivers don’t provide. In only three games, he’s scored five times (tied for the most in a player’s first three games with former Steelers tight end Eric Green) and has been involved in an average of six plays per game on an offense loaded with other options.
We’ve seen Bryant used in the screen game, we’ve seen him thrown deep passes and make nice over-the-shoulder catches, and we’ve seen him drop very catchable balls. But what is it about Bryant that stands out the most, and is he worth paying attention to in daily fantasy moving forward?
Here’s a look at the Steelers in the red zone, with the deep safety circled pre-snap. You’ll see why in a second.
That safety is torn between covering the two receiving options on that side of the formation, as the Steelers are attacking the middle of the field with a smart combination of routes. Bryant is the receiver with the yellow arrow, and he’s got inside positioning against his defender, who is giving him a couple of yards to account for his speed advantage.
But instead, Bryant simply sits down at the goal line and shields off the defenders with his big frame while he hauls in the pass and backs into the end zone. This is a very basic example of a rookie receiver finding open space and taking advantage of his size in the red zone.
Bryant made the same sort of play against Indianapolis, finding open space in the red zone and settling down to provide an easy target for his quarterback.
The Colts didn’t cover that play very well at all, as backup corner Josh Gordy appeared to be responsible to follow Bryant inside and simply didn’t do it. But either way, it’s a credit to the receiver that he finds the open space and gets open, and a positive for fantasy players that he plays on an offense that gets him open so often, and throws him the ball when he gets space to work.
Here’s another positive play from Bryant, and it’s another smart playcall from the Steelers as well. Bryant is lined up inside of Heath Miller, which is perfect for attacking the coverage the Colts have called for. Linebackers match up against both Miller and Bryant at the line, with defensive backs behind to help out those backers as the receivers get upfield.
The linebacker grabs and holds Bryant, and draws a flag for his efforts, but Bryant is too big and strong to be stopped by the contact and powers through to the next level.
Just as he breaks free from the backer, Ben Roethlisberger is winding up to throw, as Bryant has room in front of the safeties to make a play down the seam.
When it comes time to make the catch, the rookie wideout extends his hands away from his body to secure the ball, which is the proper technique. This doesn’t allow his facemask or shoulder pads to deflect the ball away with contact on the way from a defender.
As I mentioned earlier, Bryant has been involved (targeted or handed the ball) in six plays per game since being activated and playing with the team on Sundays. That accounts for 18 of the team’s 208 offensive plays, a far cry from Le’Veon Bell or Antonio Brown’s involvement in the offense.
But apart from the team’s two best players in Brown and Bell, Bryant has been as involved as any other player, as his 18 combined targets and rushing attempts are the most among Pittsburgh receivers other than Brown (by a decent margin), and his 11 touches are fourth on the team over the past three games, behind the two players already mentioned and LeGarrette Blount.
Bryant is trusted and involved in one of the league’s best offenses, and his size and ability make him a red zone threat for a team that has thrown nearly twice as often as it has run in the red zone over the past three weeks (17 throws, 9 rushes). Bryant leads the team in receptions on those throws inside the 20, and is second in targets to Brown.
He’s a bit risky due to his reduced overall market share behind ball-hogs like Bell and Brown, but the way he’s used in the Pittsburgh offense makes Bryant a viable DFS option every week until his price goes through the roof. (Which at this rate is only a couple of more weeks at his touchdown pace.)
Julio Jones is Ready for a Huge Game versus Tampa Bay
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have been really, really bad against the pass so far this year. They’ve allowed the most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers so far this season, and have been on the wrong end of multiple blowouts. One of those lopsided losses came at the hands of Julio Jones and the Falcons.
This week, Jones and his teammates get another shot at Tampa Bay, who haven’t really improved at all since their last meeting a few weeks ago. If you need a reminder of what happened the last time these teams played, here’s an example.
The Buccaneers have three defenders on Julio’s side of the field, and seem fully prepared to deal with the Falcons’ best receiving threat.
And as the play unfolds, they’re still in good shape. They have two defenders near the crossing receiver, and two near Jones, which means Matt Ryan has limited options to his left.
But Dashon Goldson bites on the crossing route (which he couldn’t possibly be asked to do, not with Jones on his side, and not with the underneath defender in good position), which leaves Johnthan Banks alone, expecting help to the inside with Jones.
This results in Jones getting free in the back of the end zone, as Goldson’s leap forward was timed just as Banks was ready to hand the receiver off to his safety in coverage. A total mess for the Bucs, and an easy score for Atlanta.
The Tampa Bay safeties and corners have been leaving open spaces for receivers ever since, as we saw on this long third-down conversion for the Vikings just a couple of weeks ago.
Cordarrelle Patterson, who “never gets open” (a myth I debunked a week ago), is lined up against Alterraun Verner on this play.
Verner lets Patterson get past him, as his role in this Cover 2 scheme is to defend the short routes on his side of the field in most cases. But either he or the safety are responsible for a receiver streaking down the right sideline, and…
That safety is nowhere to be found. This appears to be Tampa 2 coverage, which means the middle linebacker carries his man up the seam and plays a third “safety” spot, meaning the safety currently “torn” between the receiver in the middle of the field and Patterson should have been closing on Patterson much, much sooner.
Ultimately we can’t be sure what the exact playcall was, but for fantasy players, that doesn’t matter. We don’t need to know who to blame, we just need to know that the Tampa Bay defense isn’t on the same page, and that leads to critical breakdowns.
Here’s one more example, which features the Bucs trying to get “cute” on defense and it backfires.
The Bucs bring Mark Barron up to the line to fake a blitz, but he’ll drop into coverage and assume the corner’s role in a Cover 2 scheme. Corner Alterraun Verner will bail out into Barron’s usual safety spot. But this will leave the same opening behind the corner and wide of the safeties that Patterson found in the example above.
There’s simply too much real estate to cover here, and Verner never looks back at Brown as he runs to his landmark as the safety on this play. This means Brown can run into open space and make an easy grab.
Ben overthrew Brown by just a bit on this play, because a better throw could have resulted in a touchdown for the speedy receiver. The damage was already done from a Tampa Bay perspective, and it’s one of countless examples of Lovie Smith’s defense failing this season.
The defense has seemed “better” over the past two weeks, but they’ve faced two of the league’s most tame offenses in Minnesota and Cleveland. Atlanta has a lot more firepower and a more competent quarterback, and that’s more than enough reason to buy in on Falcons offensive stars who have seen their price fall in recent weeks.
Nearly every site across the industry features bargain pricing for Matt Ryan, Roddy White and the aforementioned Jones, and like LeSean McCoy, these are plays you simply cannot overthink. Talented players in plus matchups with attractive prices aren’t fool’s gold, they’re good process for daily fantasy players.