Film Room Preview: Week 12
The Denver Broncos were embarrassed last week by the St. Louis Rams, losing what should have been an easy game for Denver and looking out of sorts on offense in the process. Scoring only seven points, even on the road, is far below anyone’s expected floor for a Peyton Manning-led offense. But there was one player who had a respectable day in daily fantasy this past week, and should do so again despite another difficult challenge against the Dolphins in Week 12.
C.J. Anderson Is Trustworthy in DFS This Week, Even in a Tough Matchup
C.J. Anderson hauled in eight passes for 86 yards against St. Louis to go with nine carries for only 29 yards, giving him double-digit fantasy points using any fantasy scoring system. His rushing performance wasn’t quite as good as the 13 carries for 90 yards he posted against Oakland, but his ability in the passing game is noteworthy for those making lineups this week.
Since Peyton arrived in Denver, his running backs have averaged five catches for 42 yards per game. Usually this production is spread across multiple backs, but with Montee Ball and Ronnie Hillman injured, Anderson is the lead back when it comes to contributions in the pass game. He’s also a skilled receiver who will earn more and more of Manning’s trust as he gets opportunities.
Here is Anderson alongside Manning in the shotgun, on a play which calls for him to delay at the line and then sneak into the short middle of the field to provide a dump-off option.
Manning faces pressure…
…and fires a quick pass to Anderson that is tipped at the line. But his back doesn’t bail on the play, and makes a fantastic adjustment to get a hand on the ball and haul it in.
Anderson then springs to his feet, stiff arms a would-be tackler, and takes off for a first down in an attempt to ignite his team’s comeback efforts.
The second-year pro from Bethel made a similarly good catch on his long touchdown against Oakland a week earlier, hauling in a slightly errant pass with one hand and immediately making two Raiders miss on his way up the sideline. He then cut across the field to allow for blockers to do their job, and turned a possible loss into a huge touchdown for Denver.
The running game will be there for the Broncos, as well, assuming they don’t fall behind as they did against the Rams. Teams have to respect Peyton and the passing game, and the Broncos take advantage of that fact whenever possible with run plays from the shotgun.
On this play you’ll notice the Rams lined up with defensive ends in wide-9 positions (outside of the tight end), and with only two linebackers, both playing well off the ball. Manning likely saw this and killed a pass play into this run look which took advantage of the very soft front for St. Louis.
Even after the snap, you have three defenders who aren’t flowing toward the ball as they’re worried about a pass from Peyton. This was 1st-and-10 in a one-score game with plenty of time left, it was not a must-throw situation for Denver.
Anderson has a huge lane to run through thanks to the Rams’ soft defense, and he’s able to get up the field for a decent gain as a result.
Anderson is a very no-nonsense back who gets upfield and runs for power, but doesn’t look very elusive. This is fine for the Broncos, who tend to provide good opportunities for running backs based on their offense’s unpredictability and efficiency.
The Miami Dolphins will provide a tough test, as the Rams did, but they’re susceptible to receiving backs like Anderson. Matt Forte hauled in six passes for 60 yards and a score against them, while Joe McKnight did just about the same. Bryce Brown and Anthony Dixon combined for eight catches, while Shane Vereen had five. Anderson is a safe bet to haul in a handful of passes this week, which gives him a very safe floor on DraftKings. Add in a good chance of finding the end zone for an offense lacking in other weapons, and Anderson has the upside to be used on any DFS site this weekend.
The New York Giants Run Defense Help Make DeMarco Murray the Top RB Play This Week
It seems like DeMarco Murray’s dominant start to the season is ancient history, but it’s really only been a couple of weeks since the last time the Dallas back had a great fantasy football performance. He failed to score against Jacksonville, but did post 100 yards, and his 221 total yards against Washington in Week 8 were huge for DFS players. After a much-needed bye week, he’s back, and has a perfect matchup for those looking to pay up at running back.
The Giants allowed Murray to run for 128 yards and a score in their October matchup, and have since been shredded by every team they’ve faced. The Colts, who are one of the least-efficient rushing teams in the league, picked up only 98 yards on the ground (but got 83 yards on only 14 carries from their starting backs before the game became a blowout), and then the Seahawks ran for 350 yards followed by 148 from the 49ers last week.
The Seattle game provided countless examples of undisciplined football from the New York defense, including Marshawn Lynch’s 17-yard touchdown, which featured a Giants defense that had very few players near the line to defend the run, and that problem was magnified by every player along the line losing their battle with the opposing Seattle blocker. A cutback from Lynch left no one between him and the goal line, and a power move inside the five earned him the score.
Things looked pretty similar against the Cowboys the last time these two teams met. Here are just a couple of examples.
Here you can see the play frozen a moment after the ball is snapped, and you can already tell what sort of run this will be. Every Dallas lineman is releasing right to pave the way for a running play to that side.
The Cowboys linemen get a good surge right from the start and the play is going as intended. Notice the lineman about to make a move up to the second level to block the linebacker, as this will help provide Murray with options once he gets the ball and looks to make his cut.
The lineman has blocked the linebacker, leaving no Giants free to fill gaps and tackle the runner. There are a couple of New York defenders shedding blocks to the left (under the red arrow), but otherwise the Dallas linemen and tight ends are controlling this play.
Murray presses toward the gap up the middle, but the shedding New York defenders make that the less profitable approach, so he’ll cut to the outside after drawing attention to the gap off of the center, which has helped bring defenders inside to give room toward the sideline for a big play.
Murray’s vision is great on that play, as he runs to daylight but then changes course once he sees an even better opportunity present itself.
And it’s Murray’s vision against an often out-of-position defense that will lead to another big game this weekend.
I’ve circled the three New York linebackers, who are all playing very close to the line of scrimmage. Two of them immediately engage blockers, meaning only #52 remains to defend the second level and fill gaps behind his defensive line.
This isn’t a good idea against a talented Dallas offensive line.
The Cowboys are able to get a blocker to the second level to seal off the only second-level defender, meaning Murray’s only job is to find a way through the line to get to the secondary for a nice gain. He has a lane developing up the middle, but it’s closing quickly thanks to a backside defender getting free from his blocker.
Murray presses as close to the linemen to his right as he can as he gets upfield, trusting his blockers to continue to shepherd the Giants further right and allow him a path upfield. This gives him enough room to burst past the oncoming defender and run into open space at the oncoming safety.
A missed tackle adds insult to injury for the Giants, who allow yet another big gain to Murray.
Even when things go perfect for the Giants, missed tackles ruin well-executed defensive plays. Here’s an example of a well-timed run blitz that should stop Murray for a loss.
The blitzer should have been able to make the play, but he slightly over-pursued Murray, and then his linebacker couldn’t make the tackle in space, and a big play for New York became a big play for Dallas.
Here’s one final example, showing how over-pursuit will doom the Giants again against the Cowboys, as it did against the Seahawks as well.
The Cowboys send a tight end in motion…
… and release left, prompting the linebackers to flow to that side. The linebacker on the weak side was already cheating in thanks to the motion, and now will pursue the ball to his right thanks to the offense’s general movement in that direction.
Once Murray gets the ball, he’s instantly looking to cut back, as he’s seen the Giants over-committing to his left before he was even handed the ball.
There’s no one left on the right to defend the Dallas runner, who has plenty of room to run against an embarrassed Giants defense.
Murray’s price is high at nearly every site this week, but he’s worth it. He’s coming off of a bye week and has a terrific matchup, two things that add to the long list of reasons why playing one of the best backs in the NFL is a good idea in DFS this week.
The Highs and Lows of Trent Richardson as the Featured Back in Week 12
Ahmad Bradshaw has been placed on IR by the Colts, ending his season. This means Trent Richardson will take over as the lead back for Indianapolis, a role he’s held multiple times in the past and subsequently lost due to trade or competition from other backs.
His promotion comes just in time for a game against the Jaguars, a team perceived to be one of the best matchups in football for opposing offensive players. But this isn’t the slam dunk it appears to be.
The Colts are one of the worst rushing teams in the league, even with Bradshaw healthy. The Colts rank 24th in the league in yards per rushing attempt, resulting in -41.24 expected points from the running game according to Pro Football Reference.
Richardson isn’t going to change that, as the former first-rounder is inconsistent and has poor vision as a runner. But his biggest issue as the starter for the Colts doesn’t have to do with his ability at all.
It’s his offensive line.
This play will be a toss sweep moving left, and Richardson won’t stand a chance thanks to poor blocking.
You can already see #74 for New England (rookie Dominique Easley) bursting into the backfield, controlling his blocker.
He sheds his blocker and makes a move toward Richardson, and is able to trap him for a loss. Darrelle Revis is setting an edge to the right of the image, while Dont’a Hightower is filling the gap that Richardson would have run through had Easely not blown up the play.
Richardson had nowhere to run on this play, and even the best backs would have only made a man miss to be tackled for a loss anyways.
The Colts don’t always butcher their blocking assignments, and at times, Richardson has been able to get upfield on his runs. But his lack of vision limits him from being a truly great back.
On the play above, Coby Fleener is coming across the formation to block a previously unblocked backside defender, something we’ve noted in the Seattle rushing game in the past. This is designed to facilitate a cutback lane for a runner, which is developing on this play.
But Richardson isn’t interested in a cutback, as his ambition on nearly every play is to get to the outside.
Which he’s able to do, and get a nice gain, but the bigger play would have come with a hard cut up the field and a burst through the middle of the defense.
Even once he reaches the outside, he had a bigger play available by cutting behind his blocking receiver at the numbers to get upfield, but he continued to the sideline for a modest gain.
Richardson takes what is blocked for him, sometimes, and is a very inefficient runner. But he’s talented enough to make players miss in space, which makes him an attractive option in the pass-happy Indianapolis offense.
Here we see Richardson’s good hands in use, as he extends above his head to haul in a slightly high pass.
Richardson then stops on a dime and shrugs off a pretty substantial arm tackle attempt from a defensive lineman to cut inside and turn a decent gain into a big gain.
The former Alabama back isn’t the same sort of well-rounded back that Bradshaw is, but when he’s on the field, he’s a threat in the passing game, which is huge on the Indy offense. Just don’t expect much on the ground this week against Jacksonville.
Defensive tackle Sen’Derrick Marks along with former Seahawks Red Bryant and Chris Clemons lead a talented front four for the Jags, who will be in the backfield all day against the bad Colts offensive line. Pep Hamilton (Colts offensive coordinator) doesn’t shy away from throwing the ball, and he’ll almost certainly have to abandon the run at times to keep his offense moving in this game.
Richardson will see more snaps with Bradshaw out, but don’t expect a huge day from the one highly touted tailback. He’s a big talent with lots of flaws, and those flaws limit his upside as a runner. His price is fair across the industry, which means he’s a fine punt play, but if you’re looking for high upside in your running backs, Richardson isn’t the guy in Week 12.