Film Room Preview: Week 13
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With three games already complete in Week 13 of the NFL season, the slate of games on Sunday and Monday are as lacking as they would be on a week with four teams on bye. That means there are fewer options and tougher choices to be made by daily fantasy players in the days ahead. And since it’s not possible to stack players at every position from the New England/Green Bay matchup, with it’s huge point total, we’ll look at two other situations that may provide some daily fantasy potential for this weekend.
Making Sense of the Houston Running Game vs. Tennessee
We’re deep enough into the NFL season to have plenty of tape and data on players, and in some cases, previous matchups of division teams who are coming back around for a second contest. This is the case with the Texans and Titans, who will play in Houston this week after Tennessee lost at home in the reverse fixture about a month ago.
Arian Foster had a huge game against Tennessee, rushing for 151 yards on 20 carries with two scores, and adding on a touchdown reception in Houston’s 30-16 victory. But that would be Foster’s second-to-last game before sitting out with an injury, and his status is still a bit up in the air for Sunday against the Titans.
Foster’s absence would open the door once again for Alfred Blue, who has played well in Foster’s absence, getting tons of volume and picking up chunks of yards behind Houston’s offensive line. Here’s a look at how the Texans have succeeded with Blue in the backfield.
On this play, the Texans are going to go with a power blocking scheme, and will have tight end Garrett Graham lead the way for Blue.
The offensive line, especially the center, do a great job of walling off their defenders, keeping the line of scrimmage and even surging forward to give Blue room to work.
Graham’s lead block sets up Blue with a very nice bit of space to run into, and he’s able to surge ahead for a nice gain on this play.
On this play, Graham will once again be a key factor in the run game, as the Texans will allow a lineman to come through unblocked as the left guard releases to the second level to make a block. The center will once again deliver a strong block that walls off the nose tackle, and sets the play up for success.
The guard has reached the second level here, and Graham is about to deliver a timely block on the defensive lineman, meaning Blue will be able to run behind Graham for a nice gain.
You can even see DeAndre Hopkins getting in on the act on this play, providing a solid downfield block to help Blue get up the field for a nice gain.
But there’s something missing from the Houston offense when Blue takes the place of Foster. The oft-injured Tennessee product provides a little something extra that Blue can’t replace, and that’s what helps set the Houston backfield apart.
Here’s a look back to the last meeting between the Texans and Titans which shows why Foster is such a special back.
This will be a zone blocking play (which is what Foster was known for during his time under Gary Kubiak), with the offensive line releasing left.
Foster will “read the helmets” to determine his course of action on this play. Since both Titan defenders are leaning to the outside on their blockers, meaning they’re likely to continue to flow in that direction and fill the hole in front of him, Foster is going to look to cut back.
And you can see in the red circle on the backside of the play that the Titans away from the ball are in a sprint to get over to Foster, which is going to burn them as Foster does his thing and cuts back to their side.
Foster makes a jump cut to get back inside, and has two options. He could cut up just inside of his blockers in front of him and get a decent gain, but there are multiple defenders ready to fill that gap and end the play quickly.
Foster could also cut the play all the way back, and get around the quickly arriving defender who is already out of position as the last line of defense on that side of the field.
Foster cuts again, planting his foot in the grond and driving horizontally across the field past the backside defenders, who are caught chasing Foster’s run to the left and are out of position for a cutback.
Foster would take this run in for a score and a huge play for the Texans. His vision and familiarity with zone blocking schemes opened up a lane to run through that wouldn’t be there for most backs, and certainly not for Alfred Blue. Blue is a below-average athlete built for power running, and the Texans tend to use him in power blocking schemes more often than not.
They use Foster on power runs, as well, and his vision helps to set him apart as the elite back we know him to be. On this play, the Texans get a nice surge off the line, and will send the right guard to the second level to set up a big run for Foster.
This is another play where Foster’s vision and instincts are put on display. The play seems to be developing to run between the right guard and right tackle, or to cut outside of the right tackle and run inside of the tight end. But Foster’s patience is rewarded, as a bigger hole opens up for a big gain.
The right guard was able to get to the second level and deliver a nice block on a linebacker flowing to the play side, which forces him out of the play and gives Foster an easy path to run through. He’s already cutting upfield as the block is made, as he could see the blocking unfolding before his eyes, and made his decision before the lane was as open as it would become.
Foster then gets to the next level and spots two Titan defenders pursuing the play and giving up their angles on the back side of the play. Instead of surging ahead to end the play as a gain of 10 or so, Foster cuts back…
And is able to get down to the one yard line before he’s caught by a Tennessee defender.
Over-pursuit is a big issue for the Tennessee defense, as they are easily tricked into following the flow of blockers and getting out of position when left in backside contain. Here’s an example from the Titans’ recent game against the Ravens.
The Titans are showing double A-gap pressure (the A-gap is the space between the center and the guard), which feeds perfectly into the fake the Ravens are about to run. They’re going to crash their blocking to the center and fake a handoff to the fullback…
… which fools nearly every Titan defender. Meanwhile, Justin Forsett is going to sneak out of the backfield for a pitch, and will be one-on-one with the outside defender for Tennessee, who is already creeping too far forward to keep up with the running back.
This is the moment at which number 95 has realized he’s made a huge mistake by coming up the field against Forsett, who now has the ball and is in a foot race with the bigger, slower defender to the wide side of the field.
Unsurprisingly, this is a race he would lose, and Forsett would walk into the end zone.
In that same game, the Texans used more misdirection and took advantage of the pursuit of the second-level defenders for Tennessee to score another touchdown with Forsett.
This will be a zone run to the right, which is the strong side of the formation for the Ravens, who have loaded up with tight ends for this play.
Forsett, like Foster above, will read helmets, and see that running to the outside of the blocker to the left of the image would be a mistake, as the defender’s helmet is to the outside, meaning he can easily release and plug that hole. On the other hand, number 59 is being blocked to the inside, meaning that some patience and a nice cut could open up a hole between the two circles in the image and lead to a score.
That’s exactly what happens, and all Forsett has to do is slip a diving tackle attempt inside the 10 and stroll in for another touchdown.
So as we’ve seen, the Tennessee defense is particularly vulnerable to backs who can change direction and use vision to spot over-pursuing linebackers and defensive backs. That’s Arian Foster’s speciality, but something that Blue doesn’t necessarily excel at. When Blue is in the game, the Texans run power schemes more often, which favor Blue’s skillset, but limit his upside against the Titans’ aggressive defense.
Here’s an example from the Titans matchup with the Jaguars, as Storm Johnson will run a power play to the left.
You can see that the linebackers are pursuing the run, and Johnson’s lead blocker is going to have to lay a block on one of the two defenders circled as the Titans break into the backfield.
Johnson decides before his blocks develop that he’s going to run left, which is obviously the designed way the play is supposed to go. The fake end-around is meant to draw a linebacker or two to the right, but only the defensive back in man coverage against the wideout follows him across the formation. The rest of the Titans are chasing the ball, and leave a cutback lane for Johnson.
If he waited just a moment, he could have run behind his fullback to the right and picked up a nice gain behind the center and right guard, who are getting up the field with their blocks. Instead, he plunges ahead to the right, not even allowing his fullback a chance to lead the way, and is tackled for no gain.
The Titans are aggressive and strong in their front seven, which means they’re not as vulnerable to straight-ahead power runs as they are to the uncertainty and misdirection of zone runs and other plays that require more vision and athleticism from the back.
It should come as no surprise here that my recommendation is “If Arian Foster is healthy, he’s the better play,” but I believe that Blue’s upside is so limited, while Foster’s is so high, that this game truly hinges on who plays for Houston at the tailback spot.
If Foster is active for this game, I believe he’s the top option for those paying up at running back this weekend. He’s just too good at the plays that break down the Tennessee defense to be ignored, and he’ll be “rested” after a couple of games off due to an injury.
Blue, on the other hand, will see volume if he plays, but don’t expect much in terms of upside. The plodding LSU runner may carry the ball 30 times for 75 yards, and would be touchdown-dependent to reach value thanks to his increased price after getting more touches for Houston.
All signs point to Foster playing in this game, which makes him a very attractive option, but it’s not a one-to-one swap if Blue gets the start instead. Blue is a safe cash-game play on sites where his price is low enough, and nothing but a “score or bust” gamble on sites where his price has approached the middle tier of backs.
Is Colt McCoy Worth Rostering Against the Colts Defense?
It seemed like just yesterday we were trying to figure out whether Robert Griffin III or Andrew Luck would have the better pro career, but now, just a couple of years later, Griffin has been benched for Colt McCoy, while Luck is one of the most productive quarterbacks in the league.
But for Week 13, the debate about RGIII’s future can wait. We’ve got a backup quarterback starting, which means a possible value play in DFS. So can we trust Colt McCoy against the Indianapolis defense at his bargain price?
McCoy has played in only two games this season, and in those games, he’s thrown only six incomplete passes on 42 attempts. According to Pro Football Focus, that’s a result of precise passing in the short game, with 27 of his 28 passes under 10 yards finding their targets.
But don’t mistake “completion percentage” for “accuracy.” McCoy is not “accurate.” And that’s why this game against the Colts could be a tough matchup for him.
McCoy does have one interception on the year, and it was a case of a somewhat ill-advised throw combined with a great defensive play.
Washington will run DeSean Jackson in the flat on this play in hopes of drawing up one of the zone defenders for Dallas and then throw the ball over the top of that defender. The Cowboys run a decent amount of Cover 2 and Tampa 2, which as we’ve discussed before, can often have a weakness behind the corner and outside of the safety.
But when the Tampa 2 is run correctly, that weakness becomes a strength when teams try too hard to run “Cover 2 buster” plays.
As you can see, the defenders stay at home, conceding the short throw to Jackson. The Tampa 2 and Cover 2 have always been about “bend, don’t break” defense, and that’s being executed perfectly here by Dallas.
As the middle linebacker gets up the middle of the field (the hallmark of the Tampa 2), the safety is able to stay at home and wait for the QB to tip his hand before making the decision to cover the inside or outside receiver.
So as McCoy releases the ball, the safety breaks, meaning the already well-covered receiver will now have a safety coming over to make sure he doesn’t catch the ball.
This is actually a decent throw, left just a bit too far inside, but it requires a great defensive play to become an interception. The decision to throw an end zone jump ball to Andre Roberts can certainly be questioned, as the smaller receiver doesn’t stand much of a chance of winning this battle, but with a better option in the flat, this play becomes even more frustrating to watch.
And that’s the problem with McCoy. Nothing he’s done this season has been catastrophically bad. But there have been a lot of minor mistakes that hold him back. Here’s another example from the Dallas game, as he tries to go deep again. DeSean Jackson has a step on his man, and the safety over the top is biting on the receiver on the other side of the field. A quick, deep throw at this moment would lead to a score.
But McCoy has to step up and “load up” his throw, which causes Jackson to get too deep to still lead him upfield without a very powerful throw.
So that space that Jackson earned turned out to be just enough to allow the catch, but was wasted in terms of yards after the catch. A deeper throw, or an earlier throw, would have been a long touchdown for Washington, but instead, they settle for a chunk play to get out near midfield.
Here’s another example of a wide open Jackson, with room to run after the catch. But a poor throw from McCoy leads Jackson to the turf for the reception, and cuts off any chance of a run after the grab by the dynamic receiver.
This sort of imprecision was never truly punished by the Cowboys, who didn’t really get a hand on any of McCoy’s passess outside of the interception. But the Colts and star corner Vontae Davis won’t be so forgiving.
On this play, Davis plays the quarterback’s eyes perfectly and picks up an interception on a well-played route.
Davis is able to play with his eyes on the quarterback on this play thanks to safety help over the top. His job is to deny inside throws to the receiver, and he does that perfectly.
You can see Davis check back at Torrey Smith here to make sure he keeps up with his route, and as soon as he sees him break inside, he too makes that cut and is in perfect position to make the interception.
And if McCoy is even a little bit off on his deep throws against Davis, he’ll see a similar result as his deep attempt against Dallas referenced above…
Davis is as good of a “route runner” as most receivers, and can stay in the hip pocket of his man on both short and deep routes. He’s truly one of the best corners in the game, and should be respected by daily fantasy players when the Colts are on the schedule for an offensive player.
How important is Davis? He was injured for most of Indy’s game against Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers, who posted video game numbers against the Colts. If you take out that game, and focus only on the other games the Colts have played this year (with Davis healthy), they would rank 29th in the league in fantasy points per game allowed to opposing quarterbacks.
In fact, Indianapolis has given up 12 or fewer total points to opposing QBs five times this season, with Andy Dalton, Ryan Fitzpatrick and Joe Flacco joining the Jaguars’ quarterbacks in that dubious distinction.
The Colts are one of the best pass coverage teams in the NFL this season with Davis healthy, and McCoy is just too imprecise to consider, even at a cheap price. Treat Indianapolis as you would the Cardinals or Seahawks as the year goes on, because with Davis healthy, they’re nearly on that level when it comes to shutting down opposing quarterbacks.