Film Room Preview: Week 15
Week 15 is important for fantasy players in season-long and daily leagues, as it represents one of the last opportunities to put together a winning lineup this season. It’s also an exciting week, as we’ll see the debut of oft-discussed Browns’ rookie quarterback Johnny Manziel, who is the focus of this week’s film preview.
Why A Matchup with the Bengals is Money for Johnny Manziel
I don’t think that Johnny Manziel will pan out to be a very good professional football player. This has nothing to do with his off-the-field actions, or his “system” in college, or Mike Evans’ impact on his statistics at Texas A&M. It is based on the film I watched of the exciting former Heisman winner, who I believe is too dependent upon chaos to succeed in the NFL on a regular basis.
But good football players and good fantasy players don’t always share common ground in the Venn Diagram of the NFL. Russell Wilson is a better player than Manziel by almost any measure, but opportunity and usage will dictate that I’ll use Manziel over Wilson in nearly every format this weekend.
A matchup against the Bengals may seem like a less-than-ideal spot for Manziel’s first game of the season, especially when a contest against a Vontae Davis-less Colts team could have come to pass a week ago had the Browns benched Brian Hoyer ahead of his awful game against Indy. But after watching the tape, I think this matchup could be even better for Johnny Football than a game against the Colts.
I’m not rostering Manziel because I expect 20 fantasy points from him as a thrower. To be perfectly honest, I don’t expect much at all from Manziel as a passer in this game. It’s his running ability that causes him to stand out as a top quarterback option this week, and that ability will be put on display against a Cincinnati defense that simply cannot defend running quarterbacks.
The Bengals have faced two of the leagues more athletic quarterbacks so far this season, and failed miserably at containing both, while also allowing some rushing yards to one of the league’s least athletic passers. We’ll take a look at all three games and show why Manziel is poised for a big day on the ground against the Bengals.
The first couple of examples will be from the Bengals game against the Panthers, which pitted them against Cam Newton in possibly his healthiest state of the season.
And as you can see in the first image, he’s going to run a QB draw to perfection against the Bengals. He takes a quick drop and looks to his right, drawing a linebacker toward a releasing tight end and bringing the pass rushers up the field.
Nearly every Panther lineman simply lets his defender get north and south, while keeping them out of Newton’s intended rushing lane. The back coming out of the backfield and the tight ends and receivers draw away the second-level defenders, leaving no one up the middle to stop a running Newton.
This would be bad defense against Cam on a designed pass play, as giving the best running quarterback in the league a clear path up the middle is a mistake. But the Bengals defense often allows this space for opposing signal callers, and Newton takes advantage on this play.
Now we’ll take a look at Cam’s touchdown run against the Bengals, which came on another designed running play for the athletic quarterback.
The general flow of the linemen will be to the offense’s left, but the back and a guard will pull right and lead the way for Newton.
Newton jab steps left before taking off to the right, and that keeps the backside defenders at home, and creates a numbers mistmatch on the right.
In the circle you see the back delivering his block, while the guard gets in front of Cam to deliver the other lead block. In the square you see the other important block, as a lineman has moved to the second level to block a linebacker from the side, rather than head-on. This prevents the backer from moving laterally with Cam and making the play.
The pulling guard does his job, and the linebacker is still engaged, giving Newton all the room in the world. So how did the Bengals fail on this play?
None of them won their individual matchups, and the play design was deliberately fashioned to create a numbers mismatch on one side of the field. This meant that a Bengals player had to beat his blocker off the line to disrupt the play, or a linebacker or defensive back would have to elude blockers to fill the gap and make the play, and none of that happened.
But it shouldn’t come as a surprise that Cam is running well against the Bengals. A healthy Cam Newton is tough to stop for any defense, especially on well designed plays like the ones seen above.
The next examples paint a picture of the Cincinnati defense failing to contain a chaotic, extended play, which is where Manziel thrives, and where he’ll earn his fantasy points on Sunday.
This play features the Titans, led by Jake Locker, against the Bengals, and as you can see, Cincinnati is bringing the house against Locker. They have crowded the line of scrimmage and are threatening pressure from the “A” gaps (between the center and guard) and on the outside.
But when pressure doesn’t get to a quarterback, that leaves lots and lots of empty space. Pressure also leaves defensive backs in one-on-one coverage, and that keeps their eyes out of the backfield, and focused on the receiver they’re covering. These are all recipes for a broken play turning into a big gain.
As Locker steps up into the broken pocket, he’ll see nothing but open space to his left as the receiver clears out that area of the field. He actually has a receiver about to break open deep down the field, which has drawn the safety all the way to the offense’s right, and that clears even more space for the quarterback to run.
Locker evades a tackle and takes off, picking up a very big chunk of yards on a third down play for the Titans. Locker is actually very similar athletically to Manziel, with similar 40 times, and elite agility scores. Manziel is more than capable of making the play in the images above, and watching the Bengals defense, it appears this opportunity presents itself quite a bit.
Here’s Locker again, dropping back to pass against the Bengals in a more relaxed defense. There are two deep safeties and three linebackers patrolling the middle of the field, yet that doesn’t help when the play develops and Locker takes off.
All of the pass rushers are guided up the field (by a less-than-stellar Tennessee offensive line) which leaves locker with room to step up and throw. Two of the linebackers are chasing intermediate receivers, while the third is heads up with a running back at midfield.
As Locker moves up in the pocket, the back sees his intent to scramble, and turns around to block the defender behind him. This leaves no one in the middle of the field to stop the quarterback.
The Bengals don’t discriminate when it comes to handing out rushing yards to quarterbacks, however. Even the slightly-below-average-athlete Matt Ryan picked up nearly 30 total rushing yards against the Bengals, which is a valuable three points in fantasy football.
Here’s Ryan at the back of his drop…
And here he is “stepping up” in the “pocket,” which more resembles someone with arachnophobia trying to get away from a spider in their kitchen. But he’s aware of his surroundings enough to evade a diving tackle attempt, and then…
Step around his blocker and move into open space. There is no reason why the Bengals should have let Ryan go, as he’s not a good enough athlete to dance around professional defenders like this.
He then finds room to run, and gets up the field for a nice gain before sliding.
And while you certainly don’t need proof that Johnny Manziel is capable of running the ball from the quarterback position, let’s take a look at the similarities between his first rushing score of his career, and the plays we’ve seen above from the Bengals defense.
Here’s the play that led to Manziel’s score, which will feature Josh Gordon running a drive route across the formation. This is similar to the play above which saw Locker pick up a big gain against the Bengals after a receiver cleared out defenders moving from left to right.
There are defenders in the middle of the field that could be keeping an eye on Manziel, but they’re also going to be responsible for Gordon, who is already attracting a decent amount of attention as he moves across the formation.
At this very moment, Manziel decides to run, but the Buffalo defenders up the middle of the field decide to commit to Gordon, which leaves them wrong-footed to turn back and stop the running quarterback.
This opens up a clear path to the end zone, which Manziel darts through for the score.
I genuinely expect to see Manziel post a big number in the run column against the Bengals, which is fantastic from a fantasy football perspective. 80 rushing yards is the same as two passing touchdowns, and I believe Manziel is more than capable of that sort of running output in addition to a decent amount of production through the air.
And if he scores on the ground, netting him six points instead of four for a passing score, that further adds to the point potential of the rookie QB. Running quarterbacks break fantasy football scoring in a way that DFS players must take advantage of this week, and that means rolling with Johnny Football as one of the top QB options this weekend.
Latavius Murray is Exciting, But There is Cause for Concern
Believe it or not, there is other football being played this weekend outside of Manziel’s debut, and that includes another opportunity for Latavius Murray to step into the spotlight, once again against the Kansas City Chiefs.
Murray is a freak of an athlete, standing 6’2” but running a 4.43 4-yard dash which equates to an absurd Speed Score of 115.8. Speed Score is meant to put into numbers the impact of size and speed on a defense’s ability to catch AND tackle a running back, and for Murray, his athletic profile makes that task difficult.
But the UCF product is not all flash and excitement, but lacking in substance. He’s shown the ability to pick the right spots when running the ball, which he put on display during his breakout run against the Chiefs a few weeks ago.
This is just a basic counter play with a fullback lead, and you can see that Murray’s intended path is going to be stepping left, and then following his lead blockers to the right. But the play doesn’t quite unfold that way, and Murray adjusts to compensate.
You can already see a gap forming between the two circled areas, which is not how the play is supposed to work. Murray is supposed to find room to run to the right of the center, but the left side of the line is improvising to stop Kansas City defenders, and it’s creating a new running lane.
By the time Murray has the ball and is assessing his options, there’s a Chief defender in the gap he wants to run through, and another fighting off a blocker to get in the way. His one lead blocker that’s pulling around won’t be able to stop both defenders, so Murray is smart to look elsewhere.
Kansas City’s #90 is over-pursuing on this play, as the exact spot he’s in now is where he should have stayed, as there’s a gap opening in front of him as the Raiders who are essentially back to back block their linemen in either direction.
Murray sees this hole and cuts back, changing direction for the second time on this play, and using his speed to accelerate through the open space.
#90’s momentum carried him too far left to make a play on Murray, and the big, strong back slips the tackle and is off to the races.
This vision and strength doesn’t only manifest itself on 90-yard runs, however. Here’s a look at Murray against the 49ers, picking up yards when there seemed to be nowhere to run.
There was really no “good” option for Murray as he was handed the ball, and he winds up looking for room to run behind a line that’s failing to hold back any of its defenders. A linebacker filled the lane in front of him, and there was no one in the cutback lane to help block the linebacker at the second level there.
But Murray keeps his legs moving the whole time, and dodges falling blockers to surge forward after patiently waiting for someone to help him at the second level with the linebackers waiting to tackle him.
He would surge forward for a decent gain on a play that would have ended in nothing for most young backs who lack the strength and patience Murray showed here.
But it’s not always pretty for Oakland. This play, like the last, is an example of a designed run that doesn’t work as well as it may have seemed in walkthroughs and practice. On this play, multiple linemen are going to pull to the right, leaving the tight end to block Ray McDonald as he crashes in from his end position.
That doesn’t work at all, as McDonald always has inside position on his blocker, and gets up the field in a hurry.
The pulling blockers wind up double-teaming an outside linebacker while McDonald gets right in Murray’s face as the ball is handed off…
And the tackle is made in the backfield to ruin the play.
The Raiders rank second-to-last in the NFL in run blocking, according to Pro Football Focus’ grades, and rank 28th in Football Outsiders’ Adjusted Line Yards. This isn’t a good rushing offense, but Murray has still found a way to be productive enough behind this line to succeed against a Kansas City team he ran all over before exiting due to injury.
I would temper expectations just a bit, as Murray’s offense will limit his reliability for fantasy purposes, but he’s certainly big enough, strong enough and talented enough to deliver a solid fantasy performance against the Chiefs this week, and for a nice price across the industry.
Start T.Y. Hilton Because He’s Good, Not Because of the Texans
The final player we’ll examine today is T.Y. Hilton, who faces the Houston Texans in Week 15. Yes, the same Texans team he’s done well against throughout his career. But don’t let that be the only reason you use Hilton this week.
After all, “player versus team” comparisons are small sample sizes that often prove why “correlation does not prove causation.” But in this case, people chasing Hilton in a game against the Texans are picking the right player for the wrong reasons.
Hilton has improved this season, stepping into the leading role for the Colts receiving corps, and has been scoring at a much more consistent clip as this season has progressed. He’s a key part of the Colts attack, and these plays show just how good he has been this year.
Here’s Hilton against Joe Haden, who he leaves behind, tripping and stumbling at the line, as the speedy receiver blazes down the sideline.
Andrew Luck’s throw is short and high, which gives Hilton the advantage, as he’s been tracking the throw longer with Haden chasing the player and failing to pick up on the ball at all. He adjusts well, hauls in the throw, and then sidesteps two defenders for the touchdown..
Here’s Hilton in the red zone, again against Haden, in an area where he hasn’t flourished in the past.
But look at how quickly he gets away from one of the league’s top corners, showing his short-area burst that makes his straight-line speed even more dangerous.
The throw is easy for Luck, and the Colts get a go-ahead touchdown in a crucial moment.
Here’s one last example of Hilton’s quickness and movement, this time against the Steelers.
This subtle turn to the inside is going to totally flip Cortez Allen…
And that’s a bad position to be in against Hilton…
The Indianapolis receiver pulls away into open space, and hauls in an easy touchdown pass.
Hilton doesn’t really need an introduction or a breakdown, but allow this to serve as a reminder that good receivers often do well in good matchups, and that has nothing to do with the particular team they’re playing against. Set Narrative Street aside, and build lineups that make sense based on good players in good matchups with good prices.