Film Room Preview: Week 9
How Will Darrelle Revis Impact the Denver Passing Game?
For years fantasy football players avoided top wide receivers against the Jets because of the “Revis effect.” Darrelle Revis has been one of the best corners in the NFL for quite a few years, and despite being on his third team in three seasons, he’s still just as good as he’s ever been.
This weekend, Revis and the Patriots face Peyton Manning and the Broncos, which puts one of the NFL’s best offenses up against a pass defense on the rise with an All-Pro at corner. But how will Revis actually impact the Denver passing attack?
Luckily, we got a glimpse into how the Patriots will handle a team with multiple star receivers when they took on the Bears this past weekend, and the way Revis was used should shed light onto how he’ll be used this weekend.
On the 36 passing plays I charted before Jay Cutler left the game, Darrelle Revis was lined up on the left side for 28 plays, and in the slot on eight plays. Of those eight plays in the slot, seven were because he was following Brandon Marshall into the slot to play man coverage. On the eighth, he actually followed Santonio Holmes into the slot.
But in general, the Patriots kept Revis on the left side of the defense (he never played a snap on the outside of the right side of the field), and played him in zone or some variety of matchup zone/off-man coverage for a majority of his time on the field. This is similar to how he was used in Tampa Bay last year, drawing the ire of Bucs fans.
Here’s an example of Revis being used as a left corner, not as a shadow or a matchup player.
Revis is lined up on the left despite there being no wideout on that side, leaving him “matched up” with Martellus Bennett. Bennett is going to run a drive route across the formation, and Revis is going to follow him, leaving the left side of the defense without a defensive back.
That’s troubling for the Pats, as one of the best receiving backs in the NFL is going to be running a wheel route in that direction.
Matt Forte winds up one-on-one with a linebacker as Revis and safety Patrick Chung are drawn to their right by the receivers and tight ends. This leads to an easy score for Chicago.
Here’s an example of Revis following Marshall, who starts in the slot to the left, and moves to the slot to the right. Since Darrelle follows him across the formation, this lets Jay Cutler know that Revis is likely in man against his top target, and that is good news considering the route combination they plan to run.
Marshall is going to cross with the other receiver on his side and get upfield, but Revis has such good vision, instincts and change-of-direction that he’s able to stick with the veteran wideout despite having to run through traffic to get there.
Add in some trademark Revis physicality at the top of the route, and the Patriots have earned an incompletion against Cutler and the Bears. The throw was made anticipating Marshall in the end zone, but at the end of the play, it was Revis who was closest to the ball.
The fact that Revis shadowed Marshall, when he shadowed a receiver at all, dispels any rumors that he might track Emmanuel Sanders for the Broncos because Demaryius Thomas is bigger and stronger. Brandon Marshall is the bigger, stronger, slower receiver of the duo in Chicago, yet when Revis was called upon to stick with a man in coverage, it was always Marshall.
But the biggest takeaway is that Revis is almost always playing on one side of the formation, and really only leaves that side when the offense lines up with multiple slot receivers to the other side of the field. The Broncos can then dictate matchups, something Peyton Manning is more than capable of doing at the line of scrimmage, and find ways to get players open against the Patriots that don’t involve “challenging” Revis.
The Patriots have a solid pass defense, and the weather in Foxboro isn’t going to be great for the passing game (winds may be upwards of 40 miles per hour), so there are reasons to fade the Denver passing offense in DFS this weekend.
But based on the way he’s used, and the fact that he’s being targeted more than ever this season, Darrelle Revis is not a reason to fade Denver receivers or Peyton Manning this week. If you want to gamble on the best passing offense besting the elements and a top passing defense, do so without worrying about “Revis Island.” Worry more about the Broncos protecting Peyton, the general strength of the New England pass defense, and about how the weather will impact the game.
Why to Not Fade Jamaal Charles Against the New York Jets Defense
The Jets are one of eight teams allowing fewer than 20 PPR points to running backs so far this season, and are Pro Football Focus’ top-ranked run defense (by a wide margin). That would theoretically make Jamaal Charles’ matchup with Gang Green pretty tough this weekend, and worthy of a fade.
In fact, the Jets have held every running back they’ve faced under 15 FanDuel points, with two exceptions in eight games. Those exceptions are Shane Vereen and Branden Oliver, and they beat the Jets through the air to rack up a majority of their points.
As I pointed out in the Tale of the Tape a couple of weeks ago, the Jets struggled to contain Shane Vereen in the passing game, blowing an assignment when he ran a route down the sideline, and then giving up this score in the red zone…
Oliver was the other back to have a big day against the Jets, and while I’ve also profiled him in the past, we’ll take a look at how the Jets failed in covering him a few weeks ago, and why that bodes well for Jamaal Charles.
New York has a corner staying at home on the left side of the defense, and he’s in perfect position to make a play on Oliver in the backfield. This is a very well defended play, because as we’ll see later, the Jets don’t always stay at home against a running back coming out into the flat.
This play SHOULD be a tackle for loss. Oliver doesn’t even have his feet planted after the catch, and the corner is already in his area, ready to make the tackle.
But instead, he whiffs on the tackle, and Oliver is able to turn a three-yard loss into a six-yard gain.
That’s just a missed tackle, tho. Those happen all the time in the NFL. Jamaal Charles breaks tackles all the time, too. That’s not enough to target the Jets defense in this matchup that seemingly favors him.
But this play, especially when considered alongside the Shane Vereen deep throw against New England, show that the Jets have a real problem keeping an eye on running backs, and that’s what we’ll be exploiting this weekend by rostering Charles.
I’ve included the down-and-distance from the CBS broadcast just to serve as a reminder that on 3rd-and-17, the Jets allowed Oliver to get wide open in the flat and run, uncontested, for a first down.
So how did this happen?
Here’s a look at the play as it’s just beginning to develop. Oliver has a defender on his side of the field, keeping an eye on him as he works to the outside, while every other New York defender is drifting to their right to cover the Chargers running routes to that side. Keenan Allen was on Oliver’s side of the field at the snap, but he’s running across the formation, which takes away a defender from the offenses’ right.
The Jets surround and almost get to Philip Rivers, which for some reason draws in and/or stops the progress of multiple Jets defensive backs and linebackers. They see Rivers under pressure, and either run toward him or stop in their tracks, while Oliver leaks out further into the flat, completely open.
This is just a total breakdown in coverage, as a flat defender shouldn’t be giving up or pursuing a quarterback on the other side of the field when he knows (as we saw above) that there’s a running back on his side of the formation.
Jamaal Charles has seen at four targets in four of his five full games this season, but has yet to see the kind of passing volume he saw when Kansas City was at its best early last season. He’s due to get more involved in the Chiefs air attack, and on a week where they’ll face one of the league’s best rushing defenses, this might be his breakout game as a receiver.
And New York has a physical, intense defense that is prone to mistakes and breakdowns, which means a dynamic, versatile back like Charles is less prone to a bust against them than a more physical, downhill runner.
So on a full-point PPR DFS site like DraftKings, where Charles is only $7,100 and nearly $2,000 less than the next-most expensive back, he makes for a nice play to differentiate from players who will see the Jets’ “defense versus position” rank and be scared into a better matchup.
What Happened to Michael Floyd Last Week?
Michael Floyd let down a ton of fantasy owners this past week, posting a goose egg in the points column in what many expected to be a high-scoring game against the Philadelphia Eagles. Not being able to watch the game live, I saw tweets about injuries and “drops” from Floyd, and was even more aggravated that the Arizona receiver didn’t pan out and produce value on otherwise solid lineups.
But after watching Floyd’s targets against the Eagles, I’m reminded how subjective the word “drop” is in the NFL, and reassured that he’s still a big part of the Arizona passing offense.
Floyd’s first target of the game was a deep throw into the end zone, which some outlets or analysts may credit as a drop.
I credit it as an uncalled defensive pass interference, or just a good defensive play..
Floyd’s left arm is caught on the defender as he goes up to make this catch, and instead of being able to grab it with both hands, it simply bounces off his right hand and onto the ground.
This is the narrowest of missed opportunities, and a sign that Floyd is capable of the big play (something we already knew, but shouldn’t forget just because of one bad week).
His next possible “drop” was on this play…
Floyd dove to the ground to make a catch on a well-thrown deep pass, and let it hit his chest before bouncing to the turf. This is a play he has made before, and should have made, but it’s less egregious of a mistake than the average Vincent Jackson drop I’m forced to watch every weekend as a resident of the Buccaneers’ TV viewing area.
Floyd would get up from this play hobbled from a knee injury, but would re-enter the game later, and be on the receiving end of his narrow miss on a flea-flicker pass.
Had Carson Palmer put just a bit more touch on this throw, or had Floyd not been dealing with a slightly bothersome knee, this would have been six points, or at least a big play for the Cardinals.
Floyd’s final target, which further proves his continued involvement in the Arizona offense, was a slant route on third-and-short, which appeared to be broken up by a Philadelphia defender on a very good play. Carson Palmer trusts Floyd, even though he “dropped” earlier passes, and went to him at a crucial moment in the game.
According to Pro Football Focus, Floyd had two drops on 36 targets coming into Sunday’s game, and had only five on over 100 targets last season. His two “mistakes” against the Eagles shouldn’t come as a warning that he’s an unreliable receiver, and should be seen as a bad luck outlier.
Floyd has been targeted six or more times in every game this season apart from this week’s injury-limited game against the Eagles and a prior easy win against the Raiders. This week, his price has dropped after a scoreless game, but he gets a matchup against a suddenly leaky Dallas pass defense, which allowed two scores to Odell Beckham Jr. two games ago, and gave up a big game to DeSean Jackson this week.
You may not “trust” Michael Floyd after his zero-point performance, but that doesn’t matter. Carson Palmer still does, as do the Cardinals in general, and he’ll be back to his normal production assuming no further injuries occur. He came into this year as a breakout candidate, and he’s been showing signs that those who trusted him to have a big season were correct. That trend should continue starting with a game against Dallas, and his price couldn’t be better in DFS.