Find Your Edge: Week 14 - Value of Cheap and Chalky RBs

Director of Data and Analytics, Kevin Cole, returns with a look at how past DFS slates can yield valuable insights to roster construction, decision making, and winning strategies for the coming slate of games. This is a big deal. We’ve collected a massive amount of data on past DFS slates, and Kevin is going to help you “find the edge” buried deep within them.

Week 14

Each week this column looks through the thousands of NFL contests and millions of historical entries in our ResultsDB to find nuggets of info that you can use in upcoming contests.

This week, we’re going to look deeper into the historical success rates of rostering dirt cheap, chalky running backs. I got the idea by glancing through our NFL LineupHQ and seeing that not one, but two running backs with price tags under $4K and projected ownerships for the DK main slate over 20%.

As of midday Thursday, we have Jalen Samuels ($3,700) projected for 35% ownership, the highest of the week. We also have Jeff Wilson ($3,800) projected for 22.5% ownership.

We spent some time in previous Find Your Edge articles looking at success rates and leverage for different positions by pricing tier, but this week we will go much more in-depth on running backs.

Historical cheap and chalky plays

I screened all of the biggest DK contests from each week 2016-present and found 25 running backs that fit the bill of cheap and chalky options. The exact parameters are salary of less than $4,500 and actual ownership over 20%.

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About the Author

  • Kevin Cole (colekev)

  • Kevin Cole previously worked on Wall Street as an equity and credit analyst before transitioning to data-related sports analysis. For a number of years, Kevin has specialized in creating predictive sports models that includes published work at Pro Football Focus, Rotoworld, numberFire, and RotoViz. He is now the Director of Data and Analytics at RotoGrinders.

Comments

  • hedzup

    • 181

      RG Overall Ranking

    • 2015 DraftKings FFWC Finalist

    Great info, ty

  • Volkster6

    Thanks Kevin

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