Find Your Edge: Week 14 - Value of Cheap and Chalky RBs
Director of Data and Analytics, Kevin Cole, returns with a look at how past DFS slates can yield valuable insights to roster construction, decision making, and winning strategies for the coming slate of games. This is a big deal. We’ve collected a massive amount of data on past DFS slates, and Kevin is going to help you “find the edge” buried deep within them.
Each week this column looks through the thousands of NFL contests and millions of historical entries in our ResultsDB to find nuggets of info that you can use in upcoming contests.
This week, we’re going to look deeper into the historical success rates of rostering dirt cheap, chalky running backs. I got the idea by glancing through our NFL LineupHQ and seeing that not one, but two running backs with price tags under $4K and projected ownerships for the DK main slate over 20%.
As of midday Thursday, we have Jalen Samuels ($3,700) projected for 35% ownership, the highest of the week. We also have Jeff Wilson ($3,800) projected for 22.5% ownership.
We spent some time in previous Find Your Edge articles looking at success rates and leverage for different positions by pricing tier, but this week we will go much more in-depth on running backs.
Historical cheap and chalky plays
I screened all of the biggest DK contests from each week 2016-present and found 25 running backs that fit the bill of cheap and chalky options. The exact parameters are salary of less than $4,500 and actual ownership over 20%.
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