Florida State vs. Georgia Tech Prediction, Betting Picks & Odds for CFB Week 0
College Football is BACK! Week 0 kicks off with a neutral-site matchup between #10 Florida and Georgia Tech at Aviva Stadium in Dublin. Florida State is coming off of a near-perfect season in 2023, in which they went 13-1, with their only loss coming in the Orange Bowl. Georgia Tech finished 7-6 last year in Brent Key’s first full season as the team’s head coach.
Georgia Tech lost their last meeting against Florida State 41-16 two seasons ago but had covered the spread in each of their previous 7 head-to-head meetings. Meanwhile, Florida State has won 12 consecutive games against ACC opponents (8-4 ATS).
Ahead of kickoff on Saturday, #10 Florida State is a 10.5-point favorite on the spread. The total for the game is set at over/under 55.5 points. The game will be broadcast on ESPN at 12:00 p.m. ET.
In this college football betting preview, I’ll deliver you my Florida State vs. Georgia Tech predictions, including a free pick for the game. I’ll also break down the rosters for both teams while providing supporting analysis for my prediction.
Florida State vs. Georgia Tech Prediction
- My Best Bet: Over 55 (-121 at BallyBet)
Though there aren’t many pundits singing the praises of DJ Uiagalelei, he has proven himself capable of leading a high-scoring offense. In games against unranked opponents in 2023, Uiagalelei led his team to 42, 55, 26, 52, 24, 26, and 62 points. He had a 16:2 TD:INT ratio in those contests. In 2024, he has a better roster around him, which is a net positive. On Saturday, he gets to face a Georgia Tech defense with only five returning starters and a new defensive coordinator. Florida State should be able to put up points in this matchup.
On the other side of this ACC affair, Georgia Tech’s offense is in good shape as well. The unit has eight returning starters, including last year’s starting quarterback, their top two leading rushers, and their top two receivers. Four of their five starting offensive linemen return as well. A good offensive line and a mobile quarterback should help them move the ball relatively well here.
In college football, 55 is arguably the most important number when betting totals. Buying a half-point to get a flat 55 could be worth 11 cents.
Florida State vs. Georgia Tech Odds
- Spread: Florida State -11.5 (-115) | Georgia Tech +11.5 (-105)
- Moneyline: Florida State -490 | Georgia Tech +365
- Over/Under: 55.5 Points
Florida State Betting Preview
DJ Uiagalelei ready for first game as FSU signal caller
DJ Uiagalelei is entering his 3rd program in 3 years after spending 2022 at Clemson and 2023 at Oregon State. Uiagalelei is coming off of back-to-back solid seasons, in which he posted a 43:14 TD:INT ratio, but he hasn’t been equally productive in all situations.
Last year, Uiagalelei had a 64.9% completion percentage and a 14:2 TD:INT ratio from a clean pocket, compared to a 41.5% completion rate when under pressure and a 7:5 TD:INT ratio. His splits in 2022 were extremely similar, with his turnover-worthy-play% more than doubling when under duress.
Fortunately for Uiagalelei, he is unlikely to be under much pressure on Saturday, facing a relatively weak Georgia Tech pass rush. Georgia Tech ranked 85th out of 133 schools last fall in pass rush grade as a team, per PFF, and they focused more on improving their run defense this past offseason than they did bringing in top-tier pass rushers.
New-look Florida State defense
One consequence of having a lot of talent on a 13-1 team is that a number of those players are potential NFL draft picks when the season is over. This past summer, Florida State had 10 players from their 2023 team drafted, including six players in the first 3 rounds. Among those NFL draft picks were DE Jared Verse, DL Braden Fiske, DB Renardo Green, and DB Jarrian Jones. When the dust settled, Florida State lost six of their top nine tacklers. They have only five returning starters on the defensive side of the ball heading into 2024.
Head coach Mike Norvell hit the transfer portal hard, so there shouldn’t be much season-long drop-off in production. However, it could take a couple of games before the defense is clicking on all cylinders.
Georgia Tech Betting Preview
Georgia Tech offense looking to build on impressive 2023 campaign
Texas A&M transfer Haynes King had a strong debut season with Georgia Tech, throwing 26 touchdowns and running for another 9 scores with his legs. Turnovers were an issue at times, but a few bad games made his end-of-season numbers look more problematic than they actually were. He had 4 interceptions against Clemson and 3 interceptions against Boston College, which accounted for nearly half of his total turnovers for the season in just those two contests.
One thing to watch on Saturday is how much King is active as a runner. In 4 games against ranked opponents in 2023, King had 42 rushing yards against Ole Miss, 46 rushing yards against Miami, 90 rushing yards against North Carolina, and 24 rushing yards against Georgia. Don’t be surprised if King looks to take advantage of a Florida State linebacker corps that is in a transition phase after losing Tatum Bethune and Kalen DeLoach to the NFL Draft.
What to expect from the Yellow Jackets defense
Georgia Tech’s defense has an extremely tough task on Saturday, facing a top-tier offense with only five returning starters. Georgia Tech couldn’t stop anyone on the ground last year, ranking dead last in the ACC, allowing 221 rushing yards per game. Their secondary unit was adequate in 2023, but they won’t be returning 1st team ACC Jaylon King, CB Keenan Johnson, or CB Myles Sims.
Further complicating matters is that the Yellow Jackets once again have a new defensive coordinator. Though Tyler Santucci brings upside to the program, it’s unlikely that we will see this unit completely in sync right out of the gate, especially against a tough opponent.