FREE NBA DFS Picks: 1/30 - DraftKings, FanDuel, Yahoo
Another six-game daily fantasy basketball slate awaits us on Thursday. There are some very interesting matchups on the board, as well as some key injury situations to monitor as we approach tipoff.
Without further delay, let’s check out who the NBA projections think will smash their salary implied value tonight!
Top DraftKings DFS Value Pick – High Smash Probability
Thomas Bryant
DK Salary:$5,200.00
FPTS Projection:32.02
FPTS Ceiling:47.71
Early Projected Ownership:Very High
Per our range of outcomes projections, we expect Thomas Bryant to smash for DraftKings GPP value in roughly 43.01% of his outcomes.
— We currently project 28 minutes and 1.14 fantasy points per minute.
— The Charlotte Hornets allow 2.53% fpts/gm above average.
— RotoGrinders early projections expect a 19.60% USG Rate.
— RotoGrinders early projections expect a 17.25% rebound rate.
— RotoGrinders early projections expect a 12.95% assist rate.
Bryant saw an extended run in his last game Milwaukee, and that included plenty of time a the C spot in the 4th quarter. Is there downside for fewer minutes than we currently project? Absolutely, but the matchup vs. Charlotte can prevent a complete bust even if the minutes are lower than expected. They rank 25th to versatile bigs and have a strangely high bump in assist rate allowed to the archetype. Bryant has a solid assist rate for a big fella already, and over all the fantasy environment is quite delicious. Your only concern here in GPP is the projected ownership, as a decline in minutes would make it difficult to reach his smash value. He’ll still brick that 57% of them, and his ownership is in the neighborhood of his smash% right now on DraftKings.
Top FanDuel DFS Value Pick – High Smash Probability
Serge Ibaka
FD Salary:$5,600.00
FPTS Projection:34.17
FPTS Ceiling:49.20
Early Projected Ownership:Very High
Per our range of outcomes projections, we expect Serge Ibaka to smash for FanDuel GPP value in roughly 37.85% of his outcomes.
— We currently project 30 minutes and 1.14 fantasy points per minute.
— The Cleveland Cavaliers allow 4.31% fpts/gm above average.
— RotoGrinders early projections expect a 24.31% USG Rate.
— RotoGrinders early projections expect a 16.80% rebound rate.
— RotoGrinders early projections expect a 6.69% assist rate.
Mark Gasol suffered an injury to his hamstring, and won’t play tonight vs. the Cavs. This opens the door for more minutes and opportunity for Serge Ibaka. The Cavs have been a good source of steals and blocks for Versatile Bigs this season, and that is useful on a site like FanDuel where their output is heavily rewarded. His price tag of $5600 is way too cheap if we think he plays 30 minutes, and that is the current expectation. He should be a useful asset at the sometimes scarce power forward position.
Top Yahoo! DFS Value Pick – High Smash Probability
Marquese Chriss
Yahoo Salary:$10.00
FPTS Projection:25.79
FPTS Ceiling:34.30
Early Projected Ownership:Very High
Per our range of outcomes projections, we expect Marquese Chriss to smash for Yahoo GPP value in roughly 47.05% of his outcomes.
— We currently project 26 minutes, and 0.99 fantasy points per minute.
— The Boston Celtics allow -4.11% fpts/gm below average.
— RotoGrinders early projections expect a 18.78% USG Rate.
— RotoGrinders early projections expect a 15.35% rebound rate.
— RotoGrinders early projections expect a 8.48% assist rate.
Yahoo makes it difficult to avoid situations like this, when they have priced a player at the stone minimum who is expected to have a significant role in the game. Chriss would have to bomb hard in both minutes and efficiency to torpedo your lineup at this price. Don’t get me wrong: He’s done it before. We just wouldn’t expect him to crash in both regards regardless of score. The Celtics should easily outclass the Warriors tonight, but using a $10 player who could give you 30 seems like a logical way to go in GPPs. Just don’t ever watch the game with Chriss on your squad… it’s rarely a beautiful sight.