FREE NBA DFS Picks: 2/26 - DraftKings, FanDuel, Yahoo
Another big NBA DFS slate awaits us on Wednesday, and we’re here to highlight the top plays on FanDuel, DraftKings and Yahoo.
Let’s see who our NBA player projections are suggesting as “smash” plays for their salary implied value tonight!
Jakob Poeltl
DK Salary:$3,200.00
FPTS Projection:33.68
FPTS Ceiling:47.83
Early Projected Ownership:Very High
Per our range of outcomes projections, we expect Jakob Poeltl to smash for DraftKings GPP value in roughly 69.20% of his outcomes.
— We currently project 30 minutes and 1.12 fantasy points per minute.
— The Dallas Mavericks allow -1.76% fpts/gm below average.
— RotoGrinders early projections expect a 14.12% USG Rate.
— RotoGrinders early projections expect a 17.02% rebound rate.
— RotoGrinders early projections expect a 14.52% assist rate.
Spurs starting frontcourt star LaMarcus Aldridge will be out Wednesday, and that opens up a lot of opportunity for San Antonio bigs. Nobody is in line for a more meaningful bump in minutes and responsibility on a per-dollar basis than Poeltl. His salary is so low on DraftKings that we actually expect it will be far more likely that he does reach his GPP value threshold than for him to fall short. It is estimated he’ll reach that mark with 69% probability. The Mavericks are far from an ideal matchup, but at this price, you can throw matchup directly out the window. He’ll be one of the highest owned plays relative to slate size on the entire season, and for good reason.
Top FanDuel DFS Value Pick – High Smash Probability
Joel Embiid
FD Salary:$10,200.00
FPTS Projection:57.1
FPTS Ceiling:82.80
Early Projected Ownership:Very High
Per our range of outcomes projections, we expect Joel Embiid to smash for FanDuel GPP value in roughly 37.95% of his outcomes.
— We currently project 33 minutes and 1.73 fantasy points per minute.
— The Cleveland Cavaliers allow 4.89% fpts/gm above average.
— RotoGrinders early projections expect a 36.11% USG Rate.
— RotoGrinders early projections expect a 22.85% rebound rate.
— RotoGrinders early projections expect a 25.41% assist rate.
Embiid served up 49 real points in his first game post-break without Ben Simmons, and his matchup tonight with the Cavs could be another opportunity for him to deliver in a big way. The presence of a super-value option in Jakob Poeltl will help to keep his ownership in check, and force people to choose a definitive side in roster construction as well. Spend up at center? Or spend down? If you spend up, Embiid is head and shoulders beyond the other available options from a value perspective. With massive rates projected in every category and a slate breaking ceiling projection, you simply can not ignore him when it comes time to narrow your player pool. He’s a bonafide stud.
Top Yahoo! DFS Value Pick – High Smash Probability
Gorgui Dieng
Yahoo Salary:$13.00
FPTS Projection:30.57
FPTS Ceiling:38.21
Early Projected Ownership:Very High
Per our range of outcomes projections, we expect Gorgui Dieng to smash for Yahoo GPP value in roughly 51.61% of his outcomes.
— We currently project 28 minutes, and 1.09 fantasy points per minute.
— The Houston Rockets allow 3.04% fpts/gm above average.
— RotoGrinders early projections expect a 17.32% USG Rate.
— RotoGrinders early projections expect a 15.70% rebound rate.
— RotoGrinders early projections expect a 10.75% assist rate.
Dieng played 28 minutes last game with the aid of a Brandon Clarke injury. We dialed up an initial minutes projection of 28 for him tonight, and it sends his projected value through the roof on Yahoo. The Rockets are not a team that is going to beat you on the defensive end on most nights, and have surrendered an above average rate of fantasy points to their opponents throughout the course of the season. At his $13 price tag on Yahoo, we would expect Dieng to reach his salary implied GPP value threshold roughly 52% of the time based on our first-look projections. If his value remains this high all day, it will be difficult to create an “optimal” build without him.