FREE NBA DFS Picks: 3/2 - DraftKings, FanDuel, Yahoo
A seven-game NBA DFS slate with a lot of interesting situations to dissect is on the docket for Monday night.
Tonight’s daily fantasy sports contests for the NBA will be some of the best we’ll see all year, and RotoGrinders is here to help with advice for DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo. Our NBA projections, core plays, projected ownership, and cheat sheets are ready to go in advance of all these great contests. Below, you’ll find a strong choice at each of the DFS providers. We propel our LineupHQ optimizer using some of the same data that we list below, and encourage you to check out all the tools we have to offer for NBA daily fantasy sports in our DFS content schedule.
Without further delay, let’s check out who the projections think will smash their salary implied value tonight!
Top DraftKings DFS Value Pick – High Smash Probability
DeMar DeRozan
DK Salary:$7,300.00
FPTS Projection:42.5
FPTS Ceiling:59.50
Early Projected Ownership:Very High
Per our range of outcomes projections, we expect DeMar DeRozan to smash for DraftKings GPP value in roughly 35.44% of his outcomes.
— We currently project 33 minutes and 1.29 fantasy points per minute.
— The Indiana Pacers allow -4.15% fpts/gm below average.
— RotoGrinders early projections expect a 32.10% USG Rate.
— RotoGrinders early projections expect a 9.75% rebound rate.
— RotoGrinders early projections expect a 33.15% assist rate.
We’ve seen DeRozan deliver nine assists in consecutive games, which is well beyond his typical rate of production in that category. In fact, more than half of his best DFS games this season have come with the aid of high assist totals. There is good reason to believe this will continue as the Spurs put the ball in his hands more in the absence of LaMarcus Aldridge. Tonight’s game against the Indiana Pacers will present a tough DFS scoring environment, but so long as the Spurs are keeping the game close DeRozan should have a real chance to hit his GPP viable score. The spread is currently just two points with the Spurs at home. DeRozan is a quality option worth your consideration on DraftKings.
Top FanDuel DFS Value Pick – High Smash Probability
C.J. McCollum
FD Salary:$8,800.00
FPTS Projection:50.1
FPTS Ceiling:69.14
Early Projected Ownership:Very High
Per our range of outcomes projections, we expect C.J. McCollum to smash for FanDuel GPP value in roughly 36.35% of his outcomes.
— We currently project 37 minutes and 1.35 fantasy points per minute.
— The Orlando Magic allow -2.58% fpts/gm below average.
— RotoGrinders early projections expect a 28.34% USG Rate.
— RotoGrinders early projections expect a 6.34% rebound rate.
— RotoGrinders early projections expect a 42.85% assist rate.
McCollum is controlling the ball on 70-75% possessions when he is in the game, and you can flip flop the USG% and AST% here in whatever you way you want in that range. The fact is that even a relatively bland DFS matchup isn’t going to slow down his projection much with rates that high. It’s conceivable that strong shooting nights will put his fantasy point total well into the 60s. Presuming he continues to play upper 30s in minutes, he is going to smash this price tag a little more than 1/3 of the time. This makes him a strong candidate for GPP exposure on tonight’s slate.
Top Yahoo! DFS Value Pick – High Smash Probability
Jonas Valanciunas
Yahoo Salary:$26.00
FPTS Projection:38.38
FPTS Ceiling:56.80
Early Projected Ownership:Very High
Per our range of outcomes projections, we expect Jonas Valanciunas to smash for Yahoo GPP value in roughly 35.79% of his outcomes.
— We currently project 29 minutes, and 1.32 fantasy points per minute.
— The Atlanta Hawks allow 6.81% fpts/gm above average.
— RotoGrinders early projections expect a 21.57% USG Rate.
— RotoGrinders early projections expect a 20.61% rebound rate.
— RotoGrinders early projections expect a 11.52% assist rate.
The Atlanta Hawks are a soft and juicy matchup for their opponents, with our Defense vs. Archetype matchup tool telling us to expect a 35% upgrade in steals and an 11% upgrade in blocks for post bigs. We already know a guy like JoVal can control the glass and get buckets when everything is working for him, and the addition of steals and blocks upside on Yahoo is HUGE for his ceiling potential. Priced at just $26 and expected to smash 36% of the time, you can easily consider him as one of your top choices for center on Yahoo.