FREE NBA DFS Picks 3/6: Smash Plays for FanDuel, DraftKings, Yahoo
It’s time once again to get hyped for a big time night in NBA daily fantasy sports contests on Yahoo, DraftKings, and FanDuel. This should be an incredible opportunity to have fun and find excitement tonight on this 10-game slate.
RotoGrinders is tracking all the stars from Luka Doncic to LeBron James in our NBA projections. We’re also busy establishing our core plays, cheat sheets, and projected ownership in advance of tonight’s giant tournaments. Below, you’ll find a top “smash play” for each of the three DFS websites. We will leverage our LineupHQ optimizer to determine the smash plays, and we encourage everyone to check out all the tools we have to offer for NBA premium in our DFS content schedule.
Without further delay, let’s check out who the projections think will smash their salary implied value tonight!
Top DraftKings DFS Value Pick – High Smash Probability
Aron Baynes
DK Salary:$3,000.00
FPTS Projection:26.75
FPTS Ceiling:36.92
Early Projected Ownership:Very High
Per our range of outcomes projections, we expect Aron Baynes to smash for DraftKings GPP value in roughly 52.09% of his outcomes.
— We currently project 26 minutes and 1.03 fantasy points per minute.
— The Portland Trail Blazers allow 3.22% fpts/gm above average.
— RotoGrinders early projections expect a 19.06% USG Rate.
— RotoGrinders early projections expect a 15.56% rebound rate.
— RotoGrinders early projections expect a 10.88% assist rate.
Deandre Ayton hurt his ankle in Tuesday’s game and is listed as doubtful for Friday’s game against the Trailblazers which should open up the door for Aron Baynes to see some more action than normal. We currently have Baynes projected for mid-20’s minutes as the Suns’ starting center which makes him an excellent value option at his minimum price tag on DraftKings.
Top FanDuel DFS Value Pick – High Smash Probability
T.J. McConnell
FD Salary:$3,800.00
FPTS Projection:26.5
FPTS Ceiling:38.16
Early Projected Ownership:Very High
Per our range of outcomes projections, we expect T.J. McConnell to smash for FanDuel GPP value in roughly 39.93% of his outcomes.
— We currently project 30 minutes and 0.88 fantasy points per minute.
— The Chicago Bulls allow 0.95% fpts/gm above average.
— RotoGrinders early projections expect a14.23% USG Rate.
— RotoGrinders early projections expect a 9.32% rebound rate.
— RotoGrinders early projections expect a 32.88% assist rate.
The oft-injured Malcolm Brogdon is listed as doubtful for Friday’s road tilt against the Chicago Bulls. Indiana is already without Jeremy Lamb and may also be without Victor Oladipo who is listed as questionable with a sore knee. A thinned out backcourt rotation means more minutes for TJ McConnell who we currently are expecting to start for the Pacers and who we have projected for 30 minutes of action. McConnell logged 29 minutes of court time when Brogdon left Wednesday’s game early and he was able to post a solid 14/4/6 line against a tough Milwaukee defense. McConnell’s combination of expected minutes and matchup make him an excellent play at just $3,800 on FanDuel.
Top Yahoo! DFS Value Pick – High Smash Probability
Dario Saric
Yahoo Salary:$12.00
FPTS Projection:30.45
FPTS Ceiling:41.11
Early Projected Ownership:Very High
Per our range of outcomes projections, we expect Dario Saric to smash for Yahoo GPP value in roughly 52.21% of his outcomes.
— We currently project 32 minutes, and 0.95 fantasy points per minute.
— The Portland Trail Blazers allow 3.22% fpts/gm above average.
— RotoGrinders early projections expect a 20.22% USG Rate.
— RotoGrinders early projections expect a 13.71% rebound rate.
— RotoGrinders early projections expect a 10.84% assist rate.
Similar to Baynes, Dario Saric will look to carry a heavier than usual load with the Phoenix Suns’ rotation expected to be without Deandre Ayton, Cameron Johnson, and Kelly Oubre. Due to all of the injuries, Saric, who has already been starting in Oubre’s absence, could see his role expand into 30+ minutes which would make him an excellent play at his near minimum-salary price tag on Yahoo!. Saric isn’t a high usage player but has the ability to fill out the stat sheet in a favorable matchup against the Trailblazers.