FREE - PGA DFS Value Breakdown: Mexico Open at Vidanta
Selecting the absolute best value out there is crucial to cruising to the top of the leaderboards. TJ “tjl5124” Laessig, will dive into the player pool, evaluating roster construction and picking out his favorite value options for the week’s tournament.
Mexico Championship
We have an interesting course this week with the four par 5 / five par 3 setup, and expect the winning score to be in the high teens and even twenties. At this kind of track, I’ll be focusing on ball strikers with distance that can score birdies. We have a relatively weak field and yet Rahm sits at the top, making him stand out head and shoulders amongst the rest. He will come with ownership, but will still remain the focal point of my lineups. In order to jam in Rahm, we’ll need to find some value in the 7k and 6k ranges. Let’s check out my favorite plays!
Optimal Plays
Alex Smalley (7400 DK / 8300 FD)
Smalley is an attractive option in this field where there is little to love in the value range. He ranks 20th in strokes gained total over the past 50 rounds, including 15th off the tee which should make a difference at this course layout. Smalley has gained strokes off the tee in 9 straight events and 15 of his total 17 events registered on Tour. We’ve seen his upside in weaker fields with the T2 finish at the Corales, and he is someone I am comfortable with in all formats.
Tyler Duncan (7200 DK / 9100 FD)
Duncan was one of my “team” picks with Schenk last week, coming off 4 of 5 made cuts including his T12 finish at the RBC Heritage. He has five top-35 finishes in the past two months, and over the past 24 rounds ranks 10th in this field tee to green, 12th in strokes gained total, and 7th in DK scoring. He can strike the ball and roll in birdies, which are the two primary metrics I am looking for this week.
GPP Plays
Adam Svensson (7300 DK / 8800 FD)
Svensson is a pure ball-striker that really struggles on and around the greens, but his ability to strike the ball comes with tremendous upside for GPPs. Over the past 24 rounds, he ranks 12th in this field ball striking and 9th in approach, and has two top-10 finishes in 2022 on 7 of 10 made cuts. The short game comes with plenty of risk, but at sub-10% ownership I like Svensson as a strong leverage play in larger field GPPs.
Greyson Sigg (7300 DK / 8700 FD)
Sigg has flown a bit under the radar, but has had a very quietly successful start to his 2022 campaign, making 8 of 9 cuts and showing more consistency than anyone else in this range. From a stats perspective, he ranks 25th in this field in strokes gained total and 12th in DK scoring, showing that he can make the birdies needed to get through the cut and run into the top 30 over the weekend. He is a solid value play that I expect to come in at very minimal ownership.
Punt Plays
Ryan Armour (6900 DK / 8500 FD)
When looking at long-term form in the value range, Armour surprisingly pops by ranking 8th in this field in strokes gained total. Digging deeper, he is solid across the board outside of his game around the greens, ranking 17th in ball striking, 14th off the tee, and 36th in approach. Armour has been inconsistent as of late, making just 3 of his last 5 cuts, but those three times he made it to the weekend he finished T15, T28, and T20. With the 7k range lacking a bit, dropping down to Armour opens up some salary relief and provides upside to go along with it.
Vincent Whaley (6800 DK / 8400 FD)
There was a stretch in 2021 when Whaley was the go-to value play each week, as he made 7 straight cuts at depressed prices. He then proceeded to miss 5 of his next 6 cuts, but might be rounding back into form following his T28 and T29 finishes at the Corales and Valero. He is a ball striker that can putt and make birdies, ranking 11th in putting and 17th in DK scoring in this field over the past 50 rounds. Another great option to save some cap space to pay up for studs like Rahm up top.