FREE PREMIUM: PGA DFS Core Plays - DraftKings & FanDuel: Charles Schwab Challenge
Top-ranked DFS player, Notorious, breaks down his favorite PGA DFS plays at various salary ranges for the coming week’s golf tournament. Who should you be building around? Find out below.
Charles Schwab Challenge
Happy Colonial week, everyone!
If you would like a full recap of the PGA Championship, we covered it in depth in this week’s episode of “Drive for Show, DFS for Dough.” While I was personally rooting for Will Zalatoris to get his first win, it was a truly magnificent performance from Justin Thomas. And obviously, we have to feel for Mito Pereira. We can only hope this will be a learning experience and not one that haunts him forever. We now head back to Texas for the Charles Schwab Challenge. There are only 120 golfers set to tee it up this week, but this is one of the strongest fields we have seen in a non-major this season.
We have plenty of course history and course data to work with this week, as Colonial Country Club has been a regular stop on the PGA Tour for many years. The course has added some length over the years and is now a Par 70 that measures just over 7,200 yards. There are only two par fives on the scorecard and this has ranked in the top 20 in difficulty on tour each of the last five years. Course history is often over-blown at most venues, but it has been very predictive here over the years. In fact, it rates as the ninth most predictive of the regular PGA Tour stops.
Off the tee, golfers will see very narrow fairways — 27 yards wide on average compared to 40 yards at Southern Hills last week. The course isn’t overly long and with an emphasis on playing from the fairway, many golfers will opt to club down on many of the holes. Despite driver not playing a huge role at this course, the fairways are still difficult to hit on average. Accuracy is more important than distance, but weighing any off the tee statistic heavily this week might be a mistake. I’m personally sprinkling in strokes gained off the tee, good drive percentage, and fairways gained.
On approach, golfers will be hitting a lot of wedges and mid-irons shots into small bentgrass greens. These are slightly smaller than the ones we saw last week and are around 5,000 square feet on average. It’s much easier to hit these greens from the fairway, but a difficult task nonetheless. Greens in regulation hit here are much lower than tour average. This creates a lot of scrambling opportunities, which is why we’ve seen so many short game specialists play well here over the years. Ultimately, I’m looking for golfers that can get it in play off the tee and are strong everywhere else — on approach, around the green, and putting.
Noto’s Downloadable and Customizable Model for the PGA Championship
Tournament Info
Field Size:
- 120 golfers
Cut Rule:
- Top 65 and ties
Key Statistics for the Week
- Strokes Gained Approach
- Strokes Gained Around the Green
- Strokes Gained Putting (Emphasis on Bentgrass)
- Driving Accuracy or Good Drive %
- Proximity from 125-175 Yards
Weather Forecasts
Hole Yardage Specialists (based on holes at Colonial CC)
- Justin Thomas
- Scottie Scheffler
- Viktor Hovland
- Collin Morikawa
- Daniel Berger
PGA DFS Core Plays
Jordan Spieth
DK: $10,400 — FD: $11,400 — YH: $47
Odds — 14
SG: OTT — 24
SG: APP — 27
Birdie or Better % — 28
SG: ATG — 11
SG: Putting (Bent) — 30
Noto’s Rating — 91.8
Spieth was a let-down last week at the PGA Championship, but it was mainly due to the putter. He gained 8.6 strokes tee to green and lost 3.2 strokes putting. As long as the ball striking continues, I see no reason to hop off now. On top of that, the last time he disappointed at a major, he went out the next week and won the RBC Heritage. His off the tee play has improved, the irons have been solid, and he’s one of the best around the greens. I have a feeling he will have a nice bounce-back effort on the greens at a place where he’s won and finished runner-up three times.
Chris Kirk
DK: $7,900 — FD: $8,700 — YH: $29
Odds — 60
SG: OTT — 11
SG: APP — 22
Birdie or Better % — 75
SG: ATG — 6
SG: Putting (Bent) — 78
Noto’s Rating — 80.7
Kirk feels almost too good to be true this week. For starters, we have him projected in the 10-12% ownership range. He finished T5 at the PGA Championship and now gets to tee it up at a course where he has made nine straight cuts, including a win. He’s quietly very good off the tee, he’s good on approach, and he’s one of the best on tour around the green. His putting can be hit or miss, but he’s certainly not a bad putter. He has a lot of missed cuts in his game log this year, but most have been within one or two shots of the cut line.
Brian Harman
DK: $7,800 — FD: $9,500 — YH: $33
Odds — 65
SG: OTT — 52
SG: APP — 90
Birdie or Better % — 108
SG: ATG — 31
SG: Putting (Bent) — 35
Noto’s Rating — 75.6
Harman has long been one of my favorite targets in DFS. I will never forget the run he went on last year where he made a ton of cuts in a row and finished inside the top 25 most of those weeks. He has really turned his off the tee numbers around the last few months and has gained over 10 strokes on approach in his last two events. We know the short game is excellent and he has always played his best on short, Par 70 courses. He has made eight straight cuts at Colonial Country Club and hasn’t finished outside the top 35 one time during that stretch.
PGA DFS Conviction Plays
Tony Finau
DK: $9,100 — FD: $10,300 — YH: $41
Odds — 41
SG: OTT — 9
SG: APP — 15
Birdie or Better % — 38
SG: ATG — 56
SG: Putting (Bent) — 37
Noto’s Rating — 82.1
This isn’t exactly a course that screams Finau on paper, but he’s found a way to contend at Colonial Country Club. He finished second here in 2019 and backed up that finish with top 25 outings the next two years. He can be a bit wild off the tee, but we’ve seen a lot of big hitters perform better on courses where they are forced to club down. His irons have been good recently and he has quietly gained 22 strokes tee to green in his last three starts. He had an excellent round on Sunday at the PGA Championship and has long putted his best on bentgrass greens.
Kevin Na
DK: $8,100 — FD: $9,800 — YH: $36
Odds — 50
SG: OTT — 111
SG: APP — 6
Birdie or Better % — 26
SG: ATG — 2
SG: Putting (Bent) — 27
Noto’s Rating — 80.2
If Na can somehow pull off a win this week, the entire betting and DFS golf Twitter can rejoice together. He seems to be a very popular option in our bubble, but that might not turn into extreme ownership. I often label Na as being volatile, but he has rattled off four straight made cuts with three top 30s during that stretch. His clear weakness is his driver, but that should be negated a bit this week. The irons have been excellent and he might be the best scrambler on the PGA Tour. He has an excellent track record at Colonial, including a win in 2019.
Gary Woodland
DK: $7,900 — FD: $9,300 — YH: $29
Odds — 50
SG: OTT — 53
SG: APP — 25
Birdie or Better % — 46
SG: ATG — 53
SG: Putting (Bent) — 25
Noto’s Rating — 76.0
Woodland and consistency don’t belong in the same sentence, but too many view that as a bad thing. Being volatile leads to lower ownership and lower price points. If he was posting top 25 finishes every week, he would be more expensive and higher owned. I love the fact that when he makes cuts, he posts a lot of high finishes. His tee to green game has been terrific and he’s finished in the top 15 at this event in each of the last two years. He’s one of the bombers that has a very good track record on shorter courses where you are forced to club down off the tee.
Harold Varner
DK: $7,800 — FD: $9,700 — YH: $35
Odds — 65
SG: OTT — 88
SG: APP — 9
Birdie or Better % — 7
SG: ATG — 9
SG: Putting (Bent) — 59
Noto’s Rating — 81.2
The conviction plays this week all have some boom or bust nature to them. Varner has been a little more consistent recently, but he tends to miss a lot of cuts and post a lot of high finishes. His approach numbers have been off the charts in his last four starts and he’s quietly top 10 in this field in strokes gained approach, birdie or better percentage, and strokes gained around the green. If he can keep it together off the tee and have a decent week on the greens, I like his chances to really surprise some people. He’s posted back-to-back top 35 finishes at this event.
Cameron Tringale
DK: $7,500 — FD: $9,300 — YH: $35
Odds — 100
SG: OTT — 95
SG: APP — 21
Birdie or Better % — 27
SG: ATG — 30
SG: Putting (Bent) — 3
Noto’s Rating — 74.1
Believe it or not, I am planning to avoid the entire $6,000 range this week on DraftKings. The field is strong and I don’t see much upside for the punts. Even in MME, I am going to try to build 150 somewhat balanced lineups. This means that Tringale will be one of the cheapest golfers in my player pool. He’s going to be low-owned even though he was one of the most popular values for nearly a year straight. He isn’t great off the tee, but the rest of his game is solid. His irons are trending in the right direction, he’s good around the green, and he’s one of the best bentgrass putters on tour.
PGA Betting Card
For the second straight week, we picked the runner-up as an outright. Eventually, the breaks will start to go our way and we will get our first outright bet of the year. At least that’s what I keep telling myself. While it wasn’t a huge week, we did secure a small profit thanks to Tommy Fleetwood finishing in the top 10 and Tiger Woods making the cut.
Season total: -86.4 units
This week: 16 units in play
To compare odds across all of the major sportsbooks, check out the Scores and Odds golf page.
Winner
- Daniel Berger +4100 (FanDuel)
- Tony Finau +4100 (FanDuel)
- Kevin Na +5000 (FanDuel)
- Gary Woodland +5000 (BetMGM)
- Chris Kirk +6000 (DraftKings)
- Harold Varner +6500 (FanDuel)
- Brian Harman +6500 (DraftKings)
- Cameron Tringale +10000 (FanDuel)
Top 5 Bets
- Daniel Berger +1000 (FanDuel)
- Tony Finau +750 (DraftKings)
- Kevin Na +900 (Caesars)
- Gary Woodland +1000 (FanDuel)
- Chris Kirk +1000 (DraftKings)
- Harold Varner +900 (BetMGM)
- Brian Harman +1100 (DraftKings)
- Cameron Tringale +1400 (BetMGM)
These odds were all available as of Tuesday afternoon.
Image Credit: Imagn
| Meet the Experts | Content Posting Times |