FREE PREMIUM - PGA DFS Picks - Expert Survey: Wells Fargo Championship
Want to know who Notorious is definitely paying up for in PGA DFS this week? Wondering which value play STLCardinals84 is eyeing most? You’re in luck. Our daily fantasy sports experts will answer a handful of questions to help you make crucial lineup building decisions for this week’s tournament.
Wells Fargo Championship
Who is your favorite golfer for optimal lineups?
Notorious: Rory McIlroy
STLCardinals84: Rory McIlroy
tjl5124: Corey Conners
redkacheek: Corey Conners
Who is your favorite golfer for large field contests?
Notorious: Paul Casey
STLCardinals84: Russell Henley
tjl5124: Corey Conners
redkacheek: Paul Casey
Who is your favorite salary saver on the board?
Notorious: Brian Harman
STLCardinals84: Keith Mitchell
tjl5124: Sepp Straka
redkacheek: Joel Dahmen
Which value-priced golfer has the best chance of making the cut?
Notorious: Ryan Armour
STLCardinals84: C.T. Pan
tjl5124: Denny McCarthy
redkacheek: Matthias Schwab
Which golfer are you afraid of being underweight on compared to the field?
Notorious: Cameron Young
STLCardinals84: Abraham Ancer
tjl5124: Tony Finau
redkacheek: Gary Woodland
Which high-priced golfer will you have little to no exposure to in tournaments?
Notorious: Patrick Reed
STLCardinals84: Patrick Reed
tjl5124: Patrick Reed
redkacheek: Patrick Reed
What type of golfers are you targeting most? (ie: bomber, short game specialist)
Notorious: Ball Strikers
STLCardinals84: Ball Strikers
tjl5124: Ball Strikers
redkacheek: Ball Strikers
Which statistic other than Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green are you weighing most?
Notorious: SG: Approach
STLCardinals84: SG: Approach
tjl5124: SG: Approach
redkacheek: Bogey Avoidance
Predict the top three finishers of the event.
Notorious: 1. McIlroy 2. Harman 3. Svensson
STLCardinals84: 1. Henley 2. McIlroy 3. Mitchell
tjl5124: 1. Conners 2. McIlroy 3. Casey
redkacheek: 1. Woodland 2. Conners 3. Finau
Predict the winning score of the week (ie: E, -5, -10).
Notorious: -12
STLCardinals84: -13
tjl5124: -13
redkacheek: -12
Which useful trend or statistic stuck out most during your research?
Notorious: The last two times we saw this course on the PGA Tour (2017 & 2018), it played as the fourth and 18th hardest course on the PGA Tour. Since then, they have lengthened this Par 70 to 7,160 yards. There are a number of long par fours, a number of long par threes, and only one of the par fives is reachable in two. The greens are extremely small and the course can’t be owerpowered off the tee. This week is all about iron play and bogey avoidance to me.
STLCardinals84: TPC Potomac at Avenel Farm is the host course this year with traditional host venue Quail Hollow preparing to host the Presidents Cup. TPC Potomac is that “spare” course that always seems ready to host when the time is right. It last hosted the 2017 and 2018 Quicken Loans National tournaments. The winning score in 2017 was just seven under par. The winning score in 2018 was FOURTEEN strokes better than that, though it’s worth noting that Francesco Molinari won by eight in that latter event. This is a course that will yield some birdies, but there is also a lot of trouble in play, particularly for those who are wayward off the tee. Even though this is a fill-in venue, it won’t be a cakewalk birdie-fest.
tjl5124: We don’t see TPC Potomac on Tour very often, but when we do, it plays more on the difficult side and is certainly not a birdie fest. We have a mixed field, and as usual on more difficult tracks I’ll be focusing on ball striking when selecting my golfers. Rory stands at the top of the field and is $900 more expensive than the next closest golfer on DraftKings. The mid range is littered with options and it feels like a week where we may see ownership spread out a bit across the board.
redkacheek: Overall, based on what we have seen from this golf course in 2017 and 2018 in the Quicken Loans tournament, this course is very difficult for the field. For both years, the bogey rate exceeded the birdie rate making bogey avoidance, and corrolary stats like wGIR and wDA+ very valuable this week. While there are some holes where less-than-driver is viable, we calculate 8 Pars 4s and 5s where players will need to use Drivers and accuracy will be paramount. Off-the-tee will make or break the week for each player.
Who is your top contrarian golfer (when considering price, key stats, projected ownership, etc.) on the board and why?
Notorious: Paul Casey – This strategy burned me badly at the Masters, but you never know when back spasms are going to show up. He was able to practice all week and able to play in the Par 3 contest, but couldn’t tee it up when the tournament started. He has now withdrawn in two straight events. If you target Casey, know the risks. However, my model doesn’t take injuries into account and has his rated as the second best play of the week. He’s far better than his current price point in this field.
STLCardinals84: C.T. Pan – Early ownership runs have Pan around 10%, which isn’t bad for a golfer who projects as one of the better values on the slate. He has now made the cut in six of his lat seven starts, and his worst finish of the made cuts in that span was 48th. He also has a pair of top 16 finishes in there, and many of those starts came in stronger fields than we will see this week. He ranks 17th in this field in strokes gained tee to green over the last 50 measured rounds, and I will definitely be overweight on him in my builds.
tjl5124: Paul Casey – Early ownership projections have Casey coming in at around 7%, making him the highest priced golfer under 10%. This creates an appearling leverage spot for Casey, who is coming off an injury and has withdrawn in two straight events. It is a risky play and for larger field GPPs only, but you will be getting a major ownership discount on the guy that ranks 4th in this field tee to green, 1st in approach, and 3rd in strokes gained total over the past 50 rounds.
redkacheek: Marc Leishman – I am with the other guys that Casey is also a great contrarian play this week, but I really like the upside for Leishman at TPC Potomac. His ownership is hovering around 8%, and this is probably due to the guys priced around him and his recent form (recent stats). Even for myself, his Spectrum Approach is negative since the Genesis, but I am willing to overrule those numbers based on his finishes here in 2017 and 2018, T5 and T13 respectively.
Who is your top overall golfer (when considering price, key stats, projected ownership, etc.) on the board and why?
Notorious: Rory McIlroy – Even though the value range is ugly this week, I will be doing my best to get as much exposure to McIlroy as possible. The last time we saw him, he was conquering Sunday demons at the Masters. He shot the low round of the day and finished in second. Perhaps that round can kick-start the rest of his season. He always plays this event as a warm-up for the major and while this is a different course than usual, he has a great track record at the Wells Fargo Championship. He’s the most talented golfer in the field and it’s not particularly close.
STLCardinals84: Rory McIlroy – Well, we finally saw a betting favorite dominate an event last week. Jon Rahm closed at around +350 odds and took home a relative wire-to-wire victory at the Mexico Open. Rory McIlroy is in something of the same boat this week, though his odds aren’t quite as short. Still, if every golfer in the field were to bring their top game… Rory would win the tournament. He finished strong on his way to a runner-up finish at The Masters, and you know he’s looking to keep that momentum rolling ahead of the upcoming PGA Championship. He’s my favorite play at the top of the board.
tjl5124: Corey Conners – Rory certainly catches my eye at the top of the pricing tier, but I’ll take the $1400 in savings and drop down to my main man Corey Conners are $10,100. Conners ranks 2nd in this field ball striking, including 4th off the tee and 9th in approach. His ball striking tends to lead to success on more difficult tracks, and he arrives in decent form with finishes of 12, 6, 35, 26, and 11 over his last five starts. He will likely be the most owned golfer in the field, but it is with good reason and I’m willing to eat the chalk in this spot.
redkacheek: Gary Woodland – Although similar to last week in regards to a strong favorite followed by distant secondary options (re: McIlroy), pricing is much better for balanced builds and sets up better for me to build with multiple players over $9k. Woodland checks a lot of boxes and with his price this week I can fit in a few more intermediate plays than last week where the $8k range was incredibly weak.
What is your hot take of the week?
Notorious: After a missed cut at fairly high ownership last week, Adam Svensson posts a top 10 at low ownership this week.
STLCardinals84: C.T. Pan finishes inside the top eight.
tjl5124: Paul Casey finishes top 3 his first tournament back from injury
redkacheek: Homa becomes a multiple Wells Fargo Championship Winner
Image Credit: Imagn