Giants vs. Dodgers Odds, Picks & Game 3 Prediction
Giants vs. Dodgers Odds
| Giants Odds | +180 |
| Dodgers Odds | -215 |
| Over/Under | 7 |
| Date | Monday, Oct. 11 |
| Time | 9:37 p.m. |
| TV | TBS |
On Monday evening, the San Francisco Giants and the Los Angeles Dodgers will battle in the National League Division Series at Dodger Stadium. Entering play, San Francisco has won 22 of their last 28 contests. Los Angeles has won 20 of their last 24 games. In Game 3, the Giants will send Alex Wood to the hill. He will be opposed by Max Scherzer. Oddsmakers are anticipating the Dodgers securing a win to take a 2-1 series lead, pricing Los Angeles as -215 home favorites.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
San Francisco Giants (+180)
Through 26 turns in the rotation this year, Wood posted a 3.83 ERA, 3.87 xERA, and a 3.48 FIP. However, he was far less effective when pitching away from Oracle Park—posting a 4.00 FIP and a 1.40 FIP in 55.2 innings on the road this season. Amongst qualified starters in 2021, Wood ranked in the 33rd percentile or worse in average exit velocity and hard-hit rate. An inability to generate weak contact on Monday could get him into significant trouble against a vaunted Los Angeles lineup.
During the regular season, the Giants ranked fifth in OPS and third in ISO against right-handed pitching. However, the majority of the right-handed pitchers that they saw this year were not of Scherzer’s caliber. In Game 1, San Francisco has scored only six runs in 18 innings to begin this series. A date against one of the most dominant pitchers in baseball is unlikely to give them the opportunity to have a breakout night at the plate.
San Francisco’s relief corps ranked seventh in bullpen FIP over the final month of the campaign. Their struggles in Game 2 could be partly attributed to the fact that none of their relievers had appeared in live game action in nearly a week. Manager Gabe Kapler got most of his best arms some work in Saturday’s loss. Expect this unit to be sharper on Monday.
Los Angeles Dodgers (-215)
After being acquired by the Dodgers at the trade deadline, Scherzer posted a 1.98 ERA and a 1.95 FIP in his final 11 regular season starts. However, he allowed five earned runs in each of his last two appearances in September, and did not even complete five innings in the National League Wild Card Game against the St. Louis Cardinals. Ahead of Game 3 of the NLDS, Scherzer commented that he identified a mechanical issue in the lower half of his delivery that may have contributed to his recent run of ineffectiveness. At his best, Scherzer is nearly unhittable. If he has truly figured out what has caused him to struggle recently, bettors should be eager to buy as much stock in Scherzer as possible for Monday night.
Los Angeles has a star-studded lineup, but the offensive output from this group has been inconsistent in 2021. In Game 1, this lineup was shutout, totaling only five hits. In Game 2, the same lineup erupted for nine runs on 11 hits in a dominant victory to even up the series. Wood will be, by far, the most favorable matchup this offense has had this postseason. Los Angeles ranked ninth in OPS and third in ISO against left-handed pitching this year. Expect Mookie Betts, Corey Seager, Trea Turner, Justin Turner, Will Smith, and the rest of this talented lineup to generate a number of run-scoring opportunities in this contest.
The Dodgers’ bullpen is in great shape heading into Game 3. Kenley Jansen and Blake Treinen have not appeared in a game since last Wednesday. Brusdar Graterol is the only member of this relief unit to appear in each of the first two games of the division series, but he has only thrown a total of 21 pitches in his two appearances. Manager Dave Roberts has everyone rested and available in this one.
Pick
It is not often that the market prices one team as greater than a -200 favorite on the money line in a postseason affair. However, this line is justified, considering the tremendous starting pitching advantage that the Dodgers have in Game 3. It can be uncomfortable for bettors to jump on a run line bet in a playoff game, but Los Angeles should be able to deliver a win by two runs or more in this one. Bet Los Angeles (-1) to create a potential push in the event that the game is closer than expected.
PICK: Dodgers -1 (-155)
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