Golden State Warriors vs. Phoenix Suns Odds, Preview, and Prediction
Warriors vs. Suns Odds
| Warriors Odds | +2.5 |
| Suns Odds | -2.5 |
| Over/Under | 222 |
| Date | Tuesday, Nov. 30 |
| Time | 10:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | TNT |
On Tuesday evening, the Golden State Warriors and the Phoenix Suns will battle at the Footprint Center. Golden State owns the best record in the NBA, and enters plays on a seven game win streak. Phoenix owns the second-best record in the league, and has won 16 consecutive contests. Oddsmakers anticipate a tightly contested affair between these two elite teams, pricing the Suns as three-point home favorites on the spread.
Let’s take a closer look at Warriors vs. Suns odds and NBA betting tips for tonight’s matchup on TNT.
Golden State Warriors (+3)
The Warriors have undeniably been the best team in the league through the first quarter of the new NBA campaign. In 20 games, Golden State is outscoring their opponents by a league-best 13.6 points per 100 possessions. They have been even better in their last five trips to the floor, leading the NBA with a +14.1 Net Rating. Golden State has also been the league’s best road team this season, posting a +9.5 Net Rating away from the Chase Center. Yet, Golden State has their toughest matchup of the season tonight against a Phoenix team that is capable of mitigating a lot of their strengths.
Per Matt Moore of Action Network, the Warriors have struggled against drop coverage this year, which is the primary defensive scheme that the Suns run on a nightly basis. A concern for the Warriors in this matchup is that they do not have big-men that can shoot the ball particularly well from the outside. Draymond Green is shooting only 31.6 percent from beyond the arc. Kevon Looney has not made a three-pointer this year, and Juan Toscano-Anderson is shooting only 29.6 percent from the perimeter. Nemanja Bjelica is shooting 37.5 percent from deep, but is only averaging 14.3 minutes per game.
Golden State shoots the third-most three-pointers in the NBA, and Phoenix is only 15th in the league in defending the three-point line—which seems to be an advantage. However, a large number of Golden State’s three-point attempts come from the corner, which Phoenix defends better than anyone in the league. It could be a struggle on the offensive end of the floor for the Dubs in this one.
Phoenix Suns (-3)
Phoenix is a statistical anomaly in the modern NBA. As a collective unit, this is a team that takes an abundance of industry-defined “poor shots,” but converts them at a high rate. Phoenix has attempted the third-most mid-range shots of any team in the league this season, but their high success rate on such shots has enabled them to be one of the most efficient teams in basketball on the offensive end of the floor.
Defensively, the Suns are allowing only 103.7 points per 100 possessions, which ranks 3rd-best in the NBA. Phoenix has a substantial amount of length on their team, with Chris Paul being the only member of the team under 6’5’’ averaging more than 18.3 points per game. Devin Booker should have little trouble fighting over the top of screens in this one, and having Deandre Ayton in the paint to contain the ball handler should limit the amount of points scored in the paint tonight by Golden State. The Warriors lack shooting ability from their big-men, which makes it unlikely that we will see them counter Phoenix’s drop coverage with much pick-and-pop action. The Suns have held 12 straight opponents to 115 points or less, and they have held six of their last 10 opponents under 100 points. Bettors should expect another strong performance from them on Tuesday night.
Warriors vs. Suns Picks
On the season, Golden State and Phoenix rank first and third, respectively, in defensive efficiency. Both teams also rank in the top-three in transition defense. Though the Warriors and Suns also rank in the top-seven in offensive efficiency this year, it could be a struggle for both of these units to score points against defensive schemes that they have struggled against this fall. The under has value in this one.
If bettors are looking to play a side on this highly-anticipated game, Phoenix is the smart lean.
PICK: Under 222 (-110), Suns -2.5 (-110)
Image Credit: Imagn