Golf DFS: Charles Schwab Challenge Preview
Hi there, Grinders! It has been a while since I have written any DFS content, with the sports world largely shut down thanks to COVID-19. After almost three months on the sidelines, it is almost time for the PGA Tour to get back in business.
Given all the excitement surrounding the return event, we have decided to roll out an early preview. It’s a little early to provide specific daily fantasy sports picks yet, but I will go through the venue for this tournament, course history, and some early golf betting tips. Let’s do it!
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The Tournament and Venue
Event – Charles Schwab Challenge
Course – Colonial Country Club
Par – 70
Length – 7,209 yards
Colonial is a classic layout that has been a host site on the PGA Tour since 1946. This event has been around for 74 years and remains a stalwart on the Tour. Though it has changed names and sponsors quite often over the years, the tournament remains the same.
This is one of those remarkable courses that has withstood the test of time as a challenging par 70 layout. The course has been gradually lengthened over the years, which is to be expected given the length of today’s golfers. It is truly a classic layout, and it will be exciting to have PGA Tour golf back in our DFS lives!
The Course
Here’s a quick hole-by-hole look at Colonial Country Club.
Hole 1 – Par 5, 565 yards. 2019 scoring average – 4.64 (easiest hole)
Hole 2 – Par 4, 389 yards. 2019 scoring average – 3.91
Hole 3 – Par 4, 483 yards. 2019 scoring average – 4.23
Hole 4 – Par 3, 247 yards. 2019 scoring average – 3.09
Hole 5 – Par 4, 481 yards. 2019 scoring average – 4.28 (hardest hole)
Hole 6 – Par 4, 406 yards. 2019 scoring average – 3.95
Hole 7 – Par 4, 440 yards. 2019 scoring average – 4.00
Hole 8 – Par 3, 199 yards. 2019 scoring average – 3.09
Hole 9 – Par 4, 407 yards. 2019 scoring average – 4.28 (second hardest hole)
Hole 10 – Par 4, 408 yards. 2019 scoring average – 4.09
Hole 11 – Par 5, 635 yards. 2019 scoring average – 4.88 (second easiest hole)
Hole 12 – Par 4, 445 yards. 2019 scoring average – 4.13
Hole 13 – Par 3, 190 yards. 2019 scoring average – 3.10
Hole 14 – Par 4, 464 yards. 2019 scoring average – 4.17
Hole 15 – Par 4, 430 yards. 2019 scoring average – 4.07
Hole 16 – Par 3, 192 yards. 2019 scoring average – 3.02
Hole 17 – Par 4, 387 yards. 2019 scoring average – 4.01
Hole 18 – Par 4, 441 yards. 2019 scoring average – 3.98
Total – Par 70, 7209 yards. 2019 scoring average – 70.92 (+0.92 to par)
I will review the DFS implications of the course layout in a moment. Before I do that, though, let’s take a quick peek at the recent course history at this event.
Course History at Colonial
2019
Winner = Kevin Na (-13)
Other Top 5 Finishers = Tony Finau, CT Pan, Andrew Putnam, Jonas Blixt
Cut Line = +2
2018
Winner = Justin Rose (-20)
Other Top 5 Finishers = Brooks Koepka, Emiliano Grillo, Kevin Na, and a tie for fifth between Louis Oosthuizen,Jon Rahm, and Kevin Tway
Cut Line = +2
2017
Winner = Kevin Kisner (-10)
Other Top 5 Finishers = Sean O’Hair, Jon Rahm, Jordan Spieth, Webb Simpson
Cut Line = +4
2016
Winner = Jordan Spieth (-17)
Other Top 5 Finishers = Harris English, Ryan Palmer, Webb Simpson, Kyle Reifers
Cut Line = +1
2015
Winner = Chris Kirk (-12)
Other Top 5 Finishers = Jason Bohn, Brandt Snedeker, Jordan Spieth, and a large tie for fifth between Adam Hadwin, Kevin Kisner, George McNeill, Pat Perez, and Ian Poulter
Cut Line = +1
Early Betting Odds
Some sportsbooks have offered odds already, and here’s a quick look at the top golfers in the field based on odds from DraftKings Sportsbook.
Rory McIlroy – 7/1
Jon Rahm – 9/1
Justin Thomas – 14/1
Webb Simpson – 18/1
Bryson DeChambeau – 22/1
Brooks Koepka – 22/1
Xander Schauffele – 22/1
Patrick Reed – 28/1
Dustin Johnson – 28/1
Sungjae Im – 33/1
Rickie Fowler – 33/1
Marc Leishman – 40/1
Tony Finau – 40/1
Matt Kuchar – 40/1
Collin Morikawa – 45/1
Gary Woodland – 45/1
Justin Rose – 45/1
Jordan Spieth – 45/1
Shane Lowry – 50/1
Matthew Fitzpatrick – 50/1
Daniel Berger, Jason Day, and Byeong Hun An – 66/1
Look at the strength of this field. Golfers like Jason Day and Jordan Spieth are both on the fringe of being top 20 options. That is remarkable for a non-major.
Notes and DFS Preview
Here are some quick notes on the data that I have presented above, and these points should shape how you think about constructing your DFS rosters for this event.
1) We have absolutely no current form for any of these players given the three month layoff. Course history will be looked at even more than normal as one of the few data points that we have to rely on. This could create bunched up ownership in all DFS formats. Given the layoff, don’t be afraid to go against the grain in tournaments.
2) The names that appear multiple times in my five-year course history above are Kevin Na (2019 winner and 2018 top five), Jon Rahm (2018 and 2017 top five), Webb Simpson (2017 and 2016 top five), and Jordan Spieth (2016 winner and 2015 top five). Right now, Spieth is nowhere near the golfer he was in those years, though, and you all know my feelings on him. Expect inflated ownership on Na, Rahm, and Simpson.
3) The PGA Tour is expanding the size of the field this year. This is normally an invitational event with 120 golfers, but the field has been expanded to 144 this year to give more players the opportunity to compete. We are also going to see a much stronger field than usual with golfers itching to get back to action. Expect a very competitive event — but also don’t be surprised to see some rust from some golfers. This is yet another reason to justify being contrarian in GPP formats. From a sports betting side, I also don’t mind taking some action on some of the big name players to miss the cut. There are going to be some surprising missed cut golfers here.
4) As for the course, only two holes (both par fives) averaged more than a tenth of a stroke under par last year. The course played almost a stroke over par on average. This is not an easy place to play, and be prepared to tilt early if your golfer fails to birdie #1. That is a must birdie hole for the Tour pros, as it only gets more difficult from there. Grinders that can save par when needed gain some extra value. The cut line has come in over par in each of the last five editions.
5) Although the course is difficult, there are birdies to be had for golfers who are on their game. The winning score has been -10 or better in each of the last five years, and Justin Rose got to 20-under a few years back. The cream of the crop tends to rise on the leaderboard at Colonial. Given the stronger field for 2020, I would be surprised if this tournament wasn’t won by a top golfer — even though I do expect a handful of top players to be rusty and miss the cut.
This course does not require massive distance given the fact that there are only two par fives. One is reachable in two for every golfer, and one is not really reachable for any of the golfers. Long iron play and the ability to save par and make some putts is the key. It’s all about placement and second shot golf. With that in mind, here are some of my favorite golfers, and in translation also some of my favorite DFS plays at their respective pricing (which will be based on odds).
Justin Thomas (14/1 odds) – He’s always motivated, and he won’t be nearly as popular as the favorite, Rory McIlroy.
Webb Simpson (18/1 odds) – Simpson is quietly becoming an elite golfer, but he still gets over-looked in national circles. He’s a consistent player with solid course history.
Patrick Reed (28/1 odds) – I am not a Reed fan, but he is ALWAYS a competitor. You know he will be ready for golf’s return, and there will be no fans to pester him with taunts.
Collin Morikawa (45/1 odds) – Morikawa is still young, but that will not deter me from targeting him even in a strong field. His iron play is absolutely phenomenal, and he will be one of the better mid-range plays here.
Matthew Fitzpatrick (45/1 odds) – His lack of length will not hurt him here, and he is another strong iron player. He is quarantining for two weeks after traveling over from Europe, and he should be ready to roll.
Long shots (All 90/1 odds or worse) – Adam Hadwin, Emiliano Grillo, Russell Knox
RotoGrinders Content Update
We would like to welcome Tyler Tamboline to the RG team! He goes by ToeTagginTambo and has always been a fun personality and a great DFS golf player. His addition to an already strong team will make our premium PGA content an absolute top-notch product moving forward. Here’s what we will be offering:
- LineupHQ with full projections and expert tags
- Consensus Value Rankings
- Expert Survey
- Drive for Show, DFS for Dough show featuring Notorious, Redkacheek, and myself
- Core Targets from Notorious
- GPP Targets from myself
- Salary Saving Targets from Redkacheek
- NEW – Conviction Targets from Tambo
- NEW – LineupHQ Multi-Entry Builder show with Tambo and rotating second host among Notorious, Redkacheek, and myself
- NEW – Sunday Showdown Builder show with Tambo
Notorious, Tambo, and I are all ranked inside the top 20 in the current RG PGA rankings, and I feel very strongly that there is no way you can beat our team of experts.
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