Packers vs. Eagles Odds, Picks, and Prediction
Packers vs. Eagles Odds
| Packers Odds | +6.5 |
| Eagles Odds | -6.5 |
| Over/Under | 46.5 |
| Date | Sun, Nov. 27 |
| Time | 8:20 p.m. |
| TV | NBC |
This week’s edition of Sunday Night Football will feature the Green Bay Packers and Philadelphia Eagles at Lincoln Financial Field. Heading into Week 12, Philadelphia owns the best record in the entire NFL, with their only blemish coming in an intra-division affair against the Washington Commanders in Week 10. Green Bay has only one win since Week 4 and has fallen to 4-7 on the season. In this matchup, oddsmakers are expecting another victory for the Eagles, pricing Philadelphia as 6.5-point road favorites on the spread.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where NFL bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
Green Bay Packers
Through 11 games, quarterback Aaron Rodgers has yet to have a 300-yard performance through the air and ranks 27th among qualified signal callers in QBR. Since Week 5, the Packers’ offense ranks 21st in EPA/play, during which Green Bay has a 1-6 record. Earlier this week, Rodgers admitted publicly that he suffered a broken thumb on a Hail Mary pass attempt on the last play Green Bay’s Week 5 loss in London to the New York Giants. Facing, arguably, the league’s best pass defense on Sunday, bettors should expect a heavy dose of Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon, regardless of how healthy Rodgers’ thumb is when it is time to take the field.
Outside of cornerbacks Jaire Alexander and Rasul Douglas, the Packers’ defense has lacked consistent play for the majority of 2022. Entering this weekend, Green Bay ranks 20th for the season in defensive EPA/play overall, including a 29th-ranked Rush EPA/play. The best hope for this unit on Sunday Night Football is that Rodgers and the offense control the time of possession, which limits the exposure of this extremely underwhelming group.
Philadelphia Eagles
Only the Kansas City Chiefs, Miami Dolphins, Buffalo Bills, and Cincinnati Bengals rank better in offensive EPA/play this season than the Eagles. Philadelphia’s strong offensive attack has been led by quarterback Jalen Hurts, who has posted a sterling 15-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio through 10 games, while adding 440 rushing yards and another eight scores with his legs. The former second-round draft selection ranks 5th in QBR and has thrown the second-fewest interceptions of any starting signal caller in 2022. Miles Sanders could also be heavily involved in Week 12, considering the tremendous talent advantage that Philadelphia’s offensive line has over Green Bay’s defensive line. Bettors should expect the Eagles to move the ball with ease in prime time this weekend.
The primary concern for Philadelphia each week continues to be a poor run defense, which ranks 24th in opponent yards-per-carry this season. Javon Hargrave, Fletcher Cox, and Haason Reddick each have at least three sacks this year, but all three players have been league average or worse defending the run. The recipe for success on Sunday for Philadelphia will entail jumping out to an early lead, and forcing Green Bay into a pass-heavy game script against an Eagles’ secondary unit that ranks 3rd in defensive dropback EPA/play and 1st in opponent passing yards-per-attempt.
Packers vs. Eagles – Picks & Predictions
It is not difficult for bettors to see why the Philadelphia Eagles enter play in Week 12 with the best record in the NFL. Philadelphia’s roster is loaded with talent and depth on both sides of the ball, with their only weakness being a poor run defense. Conversely, it is not difficult for bettors to make sense of the fact that the Green Bay Packers are 4-7 – considering the lack of talent in all areas of the roster outside of quarterback and cornerback. Still, a touchdown spread is far from easy to cover in professional football. Both teams should place a heavy emphasis on the ground game in this one, with both defenses being extremely poor against the run. This should result in a number of sustained drives and infrequent stoppages of the clock. Take the under here in a contest that should feature a limited number of drives.
PICK: Under 47 (-127, DraftKings)
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