Grill Out Odds: Each State's Most Likely Memorial Day Side
Source: Alamy/Skwebsolutions
Memorial Day weekend is the official kickoff to backyard grilling season. But when you walk out onto a neighbor’s patio, what actually ends up on your paper plate alongside that burger can feel a lot like a game of chance.
Some cookouts deliver the ultimate gourmet spread: charred Mexican street corn, fresh local asparagus, or warm, bubbling buffalo chicken dip. Others? You get a scoop of generic pasta salad… or you are handed a plain bag of potato chips.
Here at RotoGrinders, we love odds and prediction markets . So we dived into the data to map out every single state’s most likely Memorial Day side dish using Google Search behavior. The numbers revealed a massive, hilarious culinary battle line cutting right through the heart of the country: The great “Chips vs. Salad” divide.
Key Insights
- Nationwide, Salads (of all types) are the most likely side with a 7.82% implied probability, tightly chased by Potato Chips at 5.80%.
- If you’re attending a cookout in Ohio, Kentucky, or Missouri, do not expect a homemade side. Potato chips won the outright #1 spot across a massive swath of the Midwest and South.
- While “Salad” dominates the coasts, states like Oklahoma are heavily backing Elote, and North Dakota is putting its money squarely on Cowboy Caviar.
- Thanks to optimal late-May harvesting, Asparagus pulled off a massive upset, locking down the #4 spot on the national board at 5.09% probability.
Memorial Day Side Dish Odds
These numbers show how likely a specific culinary category is to dominate a backyard gathering nationwide—think of them as your holiday “side menu odds.”
| Rank | Side dish | Implied Probability | Fractional Odds | American Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Salad (All Types) | 7.82% | 12/1 | +1179 |
| 2 | Potato Chips | 5.80% | 16/1 | +1624 |
| 3 | Pickles | 5.10% | 19/1 | +1861 |
| 4 | Asparagus | 5.09% | 19/1 | +1865 |
| 5 | Macaroni and Cheese | 4.46% | 21/1 | +2142 |
| 6 | Elote | 4.44% | 22/1 | +2152 |
| 7 | Cowboy Caviar | 4.35% | 22/1 | +2199 |
| 8 | Nachos | 4.01% | 24/1 | +2394 |
| 9 | Potato Salad | 3.88% | 25/1 | +2477 |
| 10 | Macaroni Salad | 3.78% | 26/1 | +2546 |
*Odds are for entertainment purposes only.
In short: Convenience and seasonal produce dominate Memorial Day spreads, while heavy party dips remain a fierce regional favorite.
The 5 States Where You’re Most Likely to Get Some Kind Of Salad This Memorial Day
“Salad” is the undisputed 12/1 national favorite, these five powerhouse states are completely cornering the market on holiday bowls.
Now I cannot guarantee these “salads” actually contain lettuce. Especially once you cross state lines into the heart of the country, there is a very high statistical probability that what you are getting is just a copious amount of mayonnaise masquerading under a healthy title, bound together by nothing but cold pasta, potatoes, or sheer holiday willpower.
Here are the top five states where salad commands the absolute highest percentage of regional holiday search volume:
1. New York - Implied Probability: 17.10%
- Average Search Volume: 74,000
New York is the absolute epicenter of the Salad Syndicate. Capturing a massive 17.10% of the state’s total holiday side-dish interest, Empire State hosts are backing greens (or heavy deli salads) at a staggering volume. With an average of 74,000 searches, you can bet your life savings that a big salad bowl will be the focal point of any New York spread.
2. California - Implied Probability: 12.59%
- Average Search Volume: 90,500
Boasting the highest total average search volume on the map, the Golden State treats Memorial Day with a serious fresh streak. Salad locking down 12.59% of the state’s total intent is a textbook California play. Expect beautifully tossed greens or vibrant, fresh-chopped ingredients dominating the picnic table here.
3. Hawaii - Implied Probability: 11.93%
- Average Search Volume: 2,900
Island life demands refreshing, cold sides to cut through the late-May humidity. Hawaii secures the number-three spot on our green leaderboard with an 11.93% state search share. However, given the local love for traditional plate lunches, the odds heavily favor this being a heavy, incredibly delicious macaroni salad drenched in—you guessed it—mayo.
4. Arizona - Implied Probability: 11.20%
- Average Search Volume: 14,800
In the blistering desert heat of late spring, nobody wants to stand over a heavy, hot stove inside the kitchen. Arizona hosts lean hard into cool options, dedicating 11.20% of their total side-dish volume to salads. It’s a rock-solid, low-risk bet that your holiday burger here will be paired with something fresh.
5. Nevada - Implied Probability: 11.05%
- Average Search Volume: 6,600
Rounding out our top five, Nevada completes a massive West Coast and Southwest block of green-friendly tables. Pulling in over 11% of the Silver State’s total culinary search intent, local grill masters are happily stepping away from convenience foods to ensure there is plenty of cold salad on the backyard buffet line.
The 5 States Most Likely To Eat Potato Chips
If your ideal holiday involves zero kitchen prep and maximum crunch, these are your absolute best bets. While potato chips are a strong 16/1 nationally, these five specific states are completely skewing the data by running straight to the snack aisle.
Our odds are calculated from people actively sitting down and googling potato chips ahead of time- which means these numbers only account for the hosts who premeditated their laziness. What the sportsbooks can’t track is the 4:00 PM panic. When you factor in the sheer volume of frantic, last-minute cookout guests who realize they forgot to make a side dish, panic-drive to the grocery store, and violently grab the easiest family-sized bag of Ruffles they can find.
Here are the top five states where potato chips command the absolute highest percentage of regional holiday search volume:
1. Ohio - Implied Probability: 10.02%
- Average Search Volume: 22,200
Ohio is the undisputed capital of the chip world this weekend. Pulling in a staggering 10.02% of the state’s total side-dish interest, Buckeye State hosts are leading the charge for zero-effort sides. With a massive 22,200 average searches, expect a big bowl of classic potato chips right next to the burger buns.
2. West Virginia - Implied Probability: 9.76%
- Average Search Volume: 2,400
The Mountain State is a haven for the relaxed grill master. Chips capture a massive 9.76% of all local side-dish searches. While they are equally passionate about Buffalo chicken dip, the official sound of a West Virginia Memorial Day might as well be a family-sized bag of chips popping open.
3. Indiana - Implied Probability: 8.49%
- Average Search Volume: 9,900
The Hoosier State isn’t particularly interested in meticulous kitchen prep. Indiana ranks third on our convenience leaderboard, dedicating 8.49% of its total culinary holiday intent strictly to chips. If you walk onto a patio here, prepare to skip the salad tongs entirely.
4. Kentucky - Implied Probability: 8.28%
- Average Search Volume: 5,400
Right across the river from Ohio, Kentucky firmly cements this regional block of potato chip dominance. Pulling an 8.28% share of state interest, Bluegrass State hosts treat the long weekend exactly how it was intended: as a time to kick back with cold drinks and a completely ignored stove.
5. Missouri - Implied Probability: 7.97%
- Average Search Volume: 8,100
Rounding out our top five, Missouri proves that the heart of the Midwest runs on standard snack food. Securing nearly an 8% chunk of the state’s total side-dish search volume, Missouri grill masters are keeping their focus entirely on the main course and letting the chip aisle handle the rest.
May The Odds Be Ever In Your Favor
Backyard cookouts, much like a spin of the roulette wheel, are a game of chance. You might hit the culinary jackpot and land at a house serving fresh, smoky Elote or a beautifully seasoned local asparagus crop. Or, you might walk away holding a paper plate with nothing but a hot dog and a handful of Lays.
If you’re trying to avoid food prep entirely, you are in good company in the Rust Belt and the South. But if you want a true culinary experience, your best bet is heading toward the West Coast or the agricultural heart of the Midwest.
Unfortunately, no prediction market is currently taking active trades on what your neighbor is putting on their grill. However, if you’re interested in checking out other unique, real-world predictive markets, you can use a Kalshi promo code to explore what’s trending.
Maybe one day they’ll let us bet on potato salad futures.
Complete State-by-State Memorial Day Standings
| State | Top Side Dish(es) | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Alabama | Potato Chips | 7.33% |
| Alaska | Macaroni Salad / Salad | 6.41% |
| Arizona | Salad (all types) | 11.20% |
| Arkansas | Nachos / Potato Chips / Salad | 6.99% |
| California | Salad (all types) | 12.59% |
| Colorado | Salad (all types) | 10.73% |
| Connecticut | Salad (all types) | 7.83% |
| Delaware | Salad (all types) | 8.39% |
| Florida | Salad (all types) | 7.49% |
| Georgia | Salad (all types) | 7.50% |
| Hawaii | Salad (all types) | 11.93% |
| Idaho | Asparagus / Cowboy Caviar / Potato Chips / Salad | 5.83% |
| Illinois | Salad (all types) | 9.09% |
| Indiana | Potato Chips | 8.49% |
| Iowa | Asparagus | 8.47% |
| Kansas | Potato Chips / Salad | 6.42% |
| Kentucky | Potato Chips | 8.28% |
| Louisiana | Salad (all types) | 9.22% |
| Maine | Buffalo Chicken Dip / Potato Chips / Salad | 6.53% |
| Maryland | Salad (all types) | 8.50% |
| Massachusetts | Salad (all types) | 8.70% |
| Michigan | Asparagus / Potato Chips / Salad | 6.72% |
| Minnesota | Asparagus / Salad | 7.50% |
| Mississippi | Potato Chips / Salad | 7.38% |
| Missouri | Potato Chips | 7.97% |
| Montana | Cowboy Caviar / Elote / Macaroni Salad / Potato Chips / Salad | 5.91% |
| Nebraska | Asparagus | 7.37% |
| Nevada | Salad (all types) | 11.05% |
| New Hampshire | Potato Chips | 6.77% |
| New Jersey | Salad (all types) | 10.22% |
| New Mexico | Salad (all types) | 8.13% |
| New York | Salad (all types) | 17.10% |
| North Carolina | Salad (all types) | 7.32% |
| North Dakota | Cowboy Caviar | 7.13% |
| Ohio | Potato Chips | 10.02% |
| Oklahoma | Elote / Potato Chips | 7.61% |
| Oregon | Salad (all types) | 9.23% |
| Pennsylvania | Buffalo Chicken Dip / Salad | 7.36% |
| Rhode Island | Salad (all types) | 8.91% |
| South Carolina | Salad (all types) | 7.51% |
| South Dakota | Asparagus | 9.37% |
| Tennessee | Potato Chips / Salad | 7.22% |
| Texas | Salad (all types) | 10.64% |
| Utah | Salad (all types) | 8.92% |
| Vermont | Asparagus / Macaroni Salad / Potato Salad | 6.26% |
| Virginia | Salad (all types) | 8.54% |
| Washington | Salad (all types) | 9.37% |
| West Virginia | Buffalo Chicken Dip / Potato Chips | 9.76% |
| Wisconsin | Asparagus | 8.01% |
| Wyoming | Salad (all types) | 7.24% |
Methodology
To calculate our Memorial Day side dish odds, we combined regional Google search volume data for over 45 classic side dishes, analyzed state-by-state search density spikes ahead of the holiday weekend, and normalized the data to focus on non-generic, high-intent culinary items.
Implied probabilities were derived from relative search volume distribution at a state level and converted into fractional and American-style odds.
These odds are for entertainment purposes only.