H2H vs. GPP Plays: Divisional Round
In daily fantasy football, there are two main types of playing formats; head-to-head games (including 50/50 and double-up formats in which half of the entries win and half of the entries are very sad) and large field guaranteed prize pool tournaments (GPPs) where somewhere between 10-20% of the field is paid out.
In this article, we will utilize the FanDuel Divisional Round NFL contest period beginning with Saturday’s 4:35pm game and continuing through Sunday afternoon.
Divisional Round Strategy and Advice
With just four games to choose players from this week, there will not be nearly as many bargain bin plays as we are used to seeing on a normal slate of games. This makes things very tricky and there will be a lot of player overlap with the limited overall number of selections.
This week the analysis will focus on 1) safe plays, which are also likely going to be the most popular options at each position, 2) upside potential plays, or players that could reach lofty levels or whiff big time because they carry added risk of either a high price, tough matchup or both, and 3) lower priced plays that can enable us to get more top talent into our lineups.
With an overall in-game salary cap on FanDuel of $60,000, and a roster format including 1 QB, 2 RBs, 3 WRs, 1 TE, 1 K and 1 D/ST, it will be tough to love every option on our team, especially when utilizing the regular season rosters as a benchmark. The key thing to remember is that everyone is going to feel that way.
Now for the fun part: let’s look at a few players at each position that should be able to “return value” on their FanDuel in-game salary. These will be players that I will be using myself on various iterations of my FanDuel lineups this week.
Quarterback
Fun with numbers: In last week’s Wild Card round, the quarterbacks combined for 10 passing touchdowns and 2,042 yards, which works out to 255 passing yards and 1.2 passing touchdowns per passer, if we exclude the cameo appearance by Bruce Gradkowski. This is to serve as a reminder that most of the teams still playing have pretty good defenses and so we will need to re-calibrate our statistical measure of success.
Russell Wilson $8,200 vs CAR: Wilson is the sixth-most expensive quarterback, yet he is sitting second on my rankings for projected points scored, making him a nice point-per-dollar value. Wilson had a mediocre game at the end of October in Carolina with just 14.46 FanDuel points. For context, that was a 13-9 Seahawk victory in a defensive struggle which yielded five field goals before Wilson connected with Luke Willson for a touchdown, stealing the win from the Panthers with under a minute to go. Over his last eight games, Wilson has been averaging close to 8 FanDuel points per game with his legs. He will be involved in all aspects of the Seattle attack as they try to defend their Super Bowl title, making him an excellent play in H2H games. Additionally, the weather for Seattle is projecting to be the mildest of the four host cities this weekend and should affect the offenses the least.
Andrew Luck $9,600 at DEN: Luck is a terrific quarterback and the whole Indianapolis offense will run through him, even the running game (I am including the 10 catches for 85 yards that RB Dan “Boom” Herron accumulated). The downside is that he is on the road and 17% more expensive than Russell Wilson. This means he will likely need three touchdowns to surpass Wilson’s fantasy point total. This is completely within the realm of possibilities, but there is just enough margin of error that I will be making Luck my #2 choice for the H2H format this week. However, he is my top tournament quarterback option. The Broncos are currently favored by a touchdown and this game has a chance to be a shootout, which will provide Luck a higher ceiling than Wilson.
Brrrrrrrrrr: As of Tuesday when this article was written, the predicted weather for the Saturday afternoon game between the Ravens at the Patriots was checking in at a chilly 26 degrees with a wind chill of 7, and the Sunday afternoon game between the Cowboys at the Packers a nippy 19 degrees with a ZERO wind chill factor. I am a little nervous about the quarterbacks in these games.
All four signal callers absolutely have merit, however, I am thinking we will see a lot more of each teams’ running game this weekend. With Tony Romo (back) and Aaron Rodgers (calf) dealing with injuries that don’t really respond well to cold, and Joe Flacco and Tom Brady facing top-five fantasy defenses against quarterbacks, all of these little warning signs are adding up and leading me to believe that these four players are best suited as tournament options this weekend.
Running Back
Fun with numbers: Wild Card Weekend brought us just seven rushing touchdowns, or less than one per team, and Jonathan Stewart was the only running back to exceed 100 rushing yards. Because there are so few opportunities on a four-game playoff slate, it is important to find running backs that are involved in all offensive facets.
DeMarco Murray $8,900 at GB: Yes, last week I relegated Murray to my third best running back option, mainly because of his price. This weekend he is only $100 cheaper yet he is my top target. This is the nature of daily fantasy sports, where things can turn on a dime. On the season, teams had more success against Green Bay on the ground than they did via the passing game. Considering the strength of the Cowboys is their offensive line and stellar running game, it makes sense to project Murray as the likely running back points leader this weekend. Of course, anything can happen in the playoffs!
Dan Herron $6,100 at DEN: Herron was outstanding last weekend with 22 touches for 141 yards and a touchdown which netted him 23.1 FanDuel points. Fortunately, his price is still very reasonable when you consider that his heavy involvement in the passing game is likely to continue this weekend against the Broncos. Additionally, Denver has allowed the third-most fantasy points to running backs over the last three weeks, and with most of the damage being done by pass catching backs, this matchup looks to be in Herron’s favor. Because of his price, Herron will likely be the most highly owned running back this weekend.
Eddie Lacy $8,400 vs DAL: Lacy gets the slightest edge over C.J. Anderson this week. He is a little bit cheaper, has nobody threatening him for touches in the Packers’ backfield, and with the frigid weather, this looks to be shaping up like a ground-and-pound type of game. On the season, the Cowboys gave up 18 rushing touchdowns, the second most in the league. This plays right into the wheelhouse of Lacy, so he is an excellent option in all formats this weekend.
C.J. Anderson $8,700 vs IND: Anderson has been a revelation for the Broncos and he seemingly has taken over the lead running back role in Denver. This is a good matchup, as the Broncos have been relying on the ground game as their primary offensive engine for the last two months. Over their last four games, the Colts have been allowing 4+ yards per carry and have looked silly at times. The only caution with rostering Anderson is that with Ronnie Hillman back in the mix and Peyton Manning running the hurry-up offense, if Anderson is off the field at the wrong times, he could miss out on the running back scores this week. That is a little concerning considering his high price tag. Also adding to the trepidation of rostering Anderson is that the Broncos have had another week to work Hillman back into the offense. I definitely will have C.J. on some of my squads this weekend, however, I am leaning towards the three running backs above for my H2H contests.
Wide Receiver
Fun with numbers: There were just five touchdowns thrown to wide receivers last week, with all of them going to players considered the #2 or #3 options on their respective teams. This should serve as another reminder that the teams in the playoffs usually have good defenses and make their opponents really work for their points. If I am going to look for salary cap relief for my H2H teams, it will be at the receiver position. I am sure I will not be alone with this strategy, so to counter this in tournaments it may be a savvy move to roster two premium receivers and roll the dice with a cheaper running back, also known as “Belichickian roulette”.
Demaryius Thomas $9,100 vs IND: Yes, his quarterback does not have the arm strength he once did, however, he can still perfectly hit Thomas in stride on a short crossing route and DT can do the rest. Peyton Manning will look to exploit mismatches, especially if Demaryius is the receiver involved. I like him to reach a hundred yards in this game and have a better than even shot at a touchdown.
Jordy Nelson $9,000 and Randall Cobb $8,600 vs DAL: Just because I am not going all in on likely-MVP Aaron Rodgers, it doesn’t mean that I will eschew his receivers. Both of these guys are expensive and it will be tricky to get more than one top-tier wideout on your roster with the pricing this week, but feel free to sprinkle these two across your lineups, as both have tremendous game-breaking capabilities.
Dez Bryant $9,000 at GB: This just feels like a game in which Dez Bryant is going to have a memorable play or two and he is worth rolling the dice on as a likely under-owned option after his disappointing outing against the Lions.
Cole Beasley $5,300 at GB: My Cole Beasley and Martavis Bryant gambit paid off last week. Sadly Bryant is no longer an option, however, Cole still is and his price has actually gone down a little bit. He has been a sneaky-solid performer with 8.3+ FanDuel points in five of his last seven games. Beasley will again be one of my core discount plays across my lineups this weekend.
Doug Baldwin $5,900 and Paul Richardson $5,100 vs CAR: While I do not want to go overboard and have more than two Seahawks on my rosters, both of these guys are intriguing options at their current price points and selecting one of them will enable you to upgrade another position this week.
Tight End
Rob Gronkowski $7,900 vs BAL: Gronk is by far the best option at tight end this weekend. He will be fully healthy, having seen his last game action in Week 16. Over his last eight games, he has tallied eight scores and has put up numbers rivaling any of the top wide receiver options available this week. Enjoy the discount and make sure to have Gronk on a fair number of your rosters this weekend.
Jason Witten $5,500 at GB: Once again Witten had a steady 8.8 FanDuel points last week and was a solid contributor for those daily gamers that rostered him. Tony Romo is sure to be relying on his veteran safety valve frequently this weekend if things break down, thus making Witten a safe option.
Discount Dandies: If you are really are struggling to find those extra couple hundred dollars that will allow you to create your perfect team, you can look to Owen Daniels $5,100 at NE, Luke Willson $4,600 vs CAR, or Richard Rodgers $4,600 vs DAL to provide some salary cap wiggle room. I would definitely choose one of these options if it allows me to get my top desired kicker and targeted defense on my roster on this short four-game slate.
Kicker
With all of the kickers again similarly priced this weekend and all four games outdoors, I am looking at Connor Barth $4,700 vs IND and Stephen Gostkowski $4,800 vs BAL where I have the extra cap space, and if I need to go with a rock bottom priced option, then I can live with Mason Crosby $4,600 vs DAL.
Defense / Special Teams (D/ST)
The top defensive matchup of the weekend would be the Seattle Seahawks $5,200 vs CAR, as they have the 12th Man surrounding them at CenturyLink Field. The New England Patriots $5,000 vs BAL and Denver Broncos $4,900 vs IND are both also in good spots at home.