H2H vs. GPP Plays: Week 11
In daily fantasy football, there are two main types of playing formats; head-to-head games (including 50/50 and double-up formats in which half of the entries win and half of the entries are very sad) and large field guaranteed prize pool tournaments (GPPs) where somewhere between 10-20% of the field is paid out.
In this article we will utilize the FanDuel Week 11 NFL contest period, beginning with Sunday’s 1 PM games and continuing through Monday Night Football, with the Pittsburgh Steelers heading to the Nashville to take on the Tennessee Titans.
Looking through the lens of the FanDuel pricing and scoring system, we will key in on players suited for both H2H and GPP game formats.
Head-to-Head/50/50/Double-up Format
The important thing to remember about this format is that you want assemble a team that has the highest projected “floor” scoring. The reasoning behind this is simple, you just need to be better than half of the field. Whether it is mano-a-mano or a whole crowd, the top half are victorious and the others are left wondering what just happened to them.
For this reason, we will want to focus on players that have the highest projected points per salary cap dollar. The key word to remember is probable. In today’s NFL, just about any offensive player could have a three-TD day, or they may not see the end zone for a month.
We are looking for those projected stats that are likely to occur. As a general rule of thumb, in this format on FanDuel you will need to score about 120 points in order to put your team in a good position to win. Sometimes you will win with less points, other times you will lose with a much higher score, but that is a reasonable target figure.
With an overall in-game salary cap on FanDuel of $60,000, this means we need our players to score 2 points for each $1k of salary. The roster format includes 1 QB, 2 RBs, 3 WRs, 1 TE, 1 K and 1 D/ST.
Now for the fun part, let’s look at a few players at each position that should be able to “return value” on their FanDuel in-game
salary. These will be players that I will be using myself on various iterations of my FanDuel H2H lineups this week.
Quarterback
Depending on the style that best suits your team-building preference and appetite for risk, you can go with a premium guy like Peyton Manning or Drew Brees, with a mid-tier QB who has a great matchup, or perhaps even someone who has come into the starting job after that week’s pricing was already created. The key thing to keep in mind though is that we need to find a production ratio of 2pts/$1k of salary.
Andrew Luck $10,200 vs NE: Once again Andrew Luck is the top H2H option. Even at his lofty $10,200 salary, keep in mind he has had just two games with less than 22.6 FanDuel points, and those were just shy of that benchmark at 19.88 and 20.26 respectively. In last January’s playoff loss against the Patriots, Luck had 331 passing yards, two touchdowns and four interceptions on 21-of-40 passing. This game is starting out with the highest projected over/under of the week at 57.5 points with the Colts favored by a field goal. The entire offense flows through Luck, and I am willing to roll with him as my main signal caller this week.
Mark Sanchez $6,900 at GB: Those of us who rostered ‘The Sanchize’ last week were rewarded nicely for being bold with 332 passing yards and two touchdowns. The matchup in Green Bay will be much tougher than hosting the Panthers at home, however, Sanchez just needs to get 14 points to pay off this price point. My current projection target is 250 passing yards, two touchdowns and two turnovers, which would be good for just over 17 FanDuel points. This will have me rolling with a fair amount of Sanchez again this weekend.
Ben Roethlisberger $8,300 at TEN: Even in last week’s “disappointing” outing, Roethlisberger put up 343 passing yards – it was the solitary touchdown (after throwing a dozen in the previous two games) that left everyone feeling a little empty. Fun with numbers: in his six road games so far this season, Big Ben has just six passing touchdowns compared to 18 in his five home games. Tennessee has been solid against the pass, but the Titans haven’t faced any quarterback of note outside of Andrew Luck in Week 4.
Running Back
While QBs are important to constructing a solid fantasy roster, RBs are crucial. Because running backs can earn points with touchdowns, rushing and passing yards, AND receptions, they are usually the most steady source of daily fantasy production. Generally it is wise to “pay up” for a premium RB in a good matchup by utilizing your savings from another position such as defense and kicker, which will be addressed in short order.
Matt Forte $9,300 vs MIN: Okay, Sunday Night’s performance was WELL below expectations. The one thing to remember in daily fantasy sports is that you need to have a short memory, especially if you are “burned” by a premium play. Minnesota is allowing the eighth-most fantasy points per game to opposing running backs, including the sixth-most receptions, which is a facet of the game in which Forte excels. We should see Forte approach the 20-point plateau in this matchup, so do not avoid him entirely.
Mark Ingram $8,000 vs CIN: Monitor the news, but it looks like Ingram may once again be the only healthy rushing option for the Saints. Cincinnati is allowing just under 26 FanDuel points per game to opposing running backs, which is the fifth-most in the NFL this season. If Khiry Robinson and Pierre Thomas are both out again this week, make sure to have Ingram in your lineups.
Shane Vereen $6,500 at IND: Vereen’s production has been up and down this season, however, with a whole week for Coach Belichick to reconfigure the Patriot offense for the big showdown with the Colts, I think we will see a fair number of flat passes to Vereen. Since there are not many cheap options this week with clear-cut lead roles, we will need to find our value at the wide receiver position.
Wide Receiver
There are always great WR options at varying price levels and matchups. Typically what you do at the other positions will dictate how you assemble your receiving corps.
Top Shelf Options – Jordy Nelson $8,900 vs PHI: The Rodgers to Nelson combination is as in sync as it has ever been. Nelson already has eight receiving touchdowns on the season and probably would have had more if the Packers hadn’t been putting away teams in the first half of games so frequently.
Mid-Tier Choices – Mike Evans $7,500 at WAS: Evans has been phenomenal over his last two games, with 14 catches, 249 receiving yards and three scores. On the season Washington has allowed the sixth-most passing touchdowns in the league. Evans should continue to be a solid source of production. Kelvin Benjamin $6,600 vs ATL: The great thing about fantasy sports is that garbage time production still counts. It took until late in the game, but for those of you who stayed up, you got to see your fortunes turn quickly with Benjamin’s two touchdowns. The Falcons are giving up the most passing yards per game on the season with 281 per game. Keep going back to the well with Benjamin.
Bargain Bin Ballers – Jordan Matthews $5,500 at GB: Because Matthews played on Monday Night Football, his second straight big game was not accounted for by the pricing algorithm, since the contests were already released. He will be a popular option this week, but at his price and the matchup against Green Bay, he will be hard to pass up. Davante Adams $5,200 vs PHI: Okay, a one-catch performance is particularly dreadful when your starting quarterback throws SIX touchdowns in the first half. That said, we need to find some value this week to get in the top running backs, so I don’t mind rolling the dice again with Adams.
Tight End
Mychal Rivera $5,800 at SD: In his last three games, Rivera has been targeted 28 times, resulting in 21 receptions, 185 yards and three touchdowns. Continue to take advantage of his incredibly high usage rate by Derek Carr.
Jordan Reed $5,200 vs TB: Coming off a bye, I am hoping to see Washington have a better plan of attack on how to utilize Robert Griffin. The contribution from the TE position will dictate how the rest of the offense will perform. At this price point, I am willing to take the chance that Reed will get 6+ targets, and I’m hoping for 3-4 catches and 40 yards with 50/50 odds on a score.
Kicker
Kickers are very tricky to project, so I typically look for the lowest-priced kicker in a decent matchup, ideally in a dome or a fair weather stadium. This week I like the minimum-priced Greg Zuerlein $4,500 vs DEN and the minimum-priced Nick Novak $4,500 vs OAK.
Defense / Special Teams (D/ST)
D/ST is another position that is very hard to predict because so much of their value comes from return touchdowns. The best teams will have 10 return scores on the season and the worst around four, which makes it tough to know which team to roster.
This looks like a good week to again spend on the top D/STs. The Cleveland Browns $5,200 vs HOU have been very solid this season, averaging just over 11 FanDuel points per game in their last five outings, and will come up against Ryan Mallett. The Denver Broncos $5,200 at STL have plenty of opportunities for sacks and interceptions while playing with a commanding lead most games.
Editor’s Note: Tune into GrindersLive for NFL Game Night, presented by RotoGrinders, every Thursday at 7 PM, to see Eric “EMac” MacPherson, Justin “STLCardinals84” Van Zuiden and Bryan “RookieBlitz” Fontaine discuss their daily fantasy football strategies each week. Here’s the link.
Large Field Tournaments aka Guaranteed Prize Pools (GPPs)
Depending on the contest, GPPs will generally pay out 10-20% of the field. It will take an outstanding score in order to finish in the money, so your mentality needs to be that you want to be in the top 10% or finish last. Being middle of the pack or even above average does not come with any reward, so don’t be afraid to take a few risks and stray from the herd.
Quarterback
Aaron Rodgers $10,100 vs PHI: Rodgers is again arguably the best quarterback on the board this week. Yes that is what I said last week too. After throwing for six touchdowns in the first half on Monday Night, is there anyone else you would like to have anchoring your team?
Peyton Manning $10,400 at STL: Playing on the road for the third straight week, I like Manning because I think he will be on less rosters in the large field tournaments than Aaron Rodgers and Andrew Luck would be. In his last two games, he has thrown for 778 yards and seven touchdowns. With the uncertainty at running back, I like Manning to again have a hand in nearly every score this week.
Drew Stanton $5,900 vs DET: Yes, this is a hail mary play against the stingiest fantasy quarterback defense (just 13.2 FanDuel points allowed per week), however, you can put together a plethora of top options at most of the other positions to allow yourself a puncher’s chance of taking down a big prize.
Running Back
Editor’s Note: Arian Foster (groin) has been ruled out for Week 11 per @HoustonTexans. At this point, Alfred Blue is a TREMENDOUS bargain option in Cleveland against the Browns and is a Top 10 RB with the starting nod.
Arian Foster $9,200 at CLE: This pick does come with a fair amount of risk. The last time we saw Foster, he was fuming on the sidelines after being hobbled by a groin injury. With last week’s bye, he will have had two weeks off to recover from what is being called a minor groin pull. Considering that the Texans are going with a very green quarterback in Ryan Mallett, I don’t mind taking on the additional injury risk with Foster when swinging for the fences.
Marshawn Lynch $9,000 at KC: The Skittles were certainly creating a rainbow last weekend in rainy Seattle. In his last two games, Lynch has had six touchdowns while putting up 69.6 FanDuel points. It appears he is back to being a major focus on offense, and with a chance of snow in KC this weekend, it looks like the ‘Hawks will again be focused on the ground-and-pound strategy.
Jeremy Hill $6,500 at NO: There is a decent chance that Giovani Bernard will be out again this week. If he is, Hill makes for a great off-the-board play. The Bengals do not have the firepower to keep up with the Saints, so they are going to need to control the clock as best they can. Their only shot at sneaking out a road victory in the Super Dome is to ride Hill for 25+ touches, 120+ yards and ideally a couple scores. If you too can visualize this as the best bet for Cincinnati to stay in the game, Hill becomes a very intriguing option.
Jerrick McKinnon $5,500 at CHI: This is completely a gut call. After taking a break from McKinnon last week (okay, so he was on a bye), I am back for one last shot at having him on my roster when he FINALLY scores his first touchdown. Outside of his family and college roommate, I may be the only one willing to give him a final chance at redemption. I will be shocked if he is on more than 3-4% of all rosters this weekend.
Wide Receiver
Generally in a GPP it is a good idea to pair a receiver with your QB so you can double up on your points if they connect for a score or two. Remember you want to go big or go home in this format.
Jordy Nelson $8,900, Randall Cobb $8,700 and Davante Adams $5,200 vs GB: Once more unto the breach, dear friends. Once more. If I am rolling with Aaron Rodgers, I will definitely be taking a couple of his receiving options. I do not see a two-touchdown performance by his tight ends again this week, and think his wide receivers will be good for most of the scoring against Philly.
Demaryius Thomas $9,100 and Emmanuel Sanders $8,600 at STL: At these prices, you will really only be able to get one of these guys in the same lineup with Peyton Manning, OR you could flip the script and roster them both, albeit with a cheaper quarterback option. You have to consider zigging when everyone else zags in the large-field tournaments.
T.Y. Hilton $8,600 vs NE: On the season, Hilton has put up some tremendous numbers and is the clear top option for Andrew Luck. Over his last four outings, he has averaged just under 20 FanDuel points. Yes, he is slated for a trip to Revis Island on Monday, but I think he will have enough targets and opportunity to make him an intriguing option that a lot of daily gamers will be avoiding.
Brandon LaFell $6,900 at IND: LaFell has had three 20+ FanDuel performances in his last six games and is definitely an interesting option against the Colts in one of the highest projected scoring matchups of the week.
DeSean Jackson $8,100 and $6,500 Pierre Garcon vs TB: On the season, the Pewter Pirates have allowed more fantasy points to wide receivers than any other team in the league. Rolling with one of these guys will be a good idea this week.
Tight End
Jimmy Graham $7,900 vs CIN, Rob Gronkowski $8,100 at IND, and Julius Thomas $7,500 at STL are all top-shelf options that you can’t go wrong with this week. If you need a cheap play, I would suggest looking at Mychal Rivera $5,800 at SD and Jordan Reed $5,200 vs TB, who have been detailed in the H2H section of this article.
Kickers and Defense / Special Teams
Generally I will utilize the same handful of cheap kickers and DSTs across my H2H and GPP lineups because of their inherent boom/bust nature.
Feel free to send questions via Twitter: @EmacDFS
Good Luck Gamers!