H2H vs. GPP Plays: Week 12

In daily fantasy football, there are two main types of playing formats; head-to-head games (including 50/50 and double-up formats in which half of the entries win and half of the entries are very sad) and large field guaranteed prize pool tournaments (GPPs) where somewhere between 10-20% of the field is paid out.

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In this article we will utilize the FanDuel Week 12 NFL contest period, beginning with Sunday’s 1 PM games and continuing through Monday Night Football, with the Baltimore Ravens heading to the Superdome to take on the New Orleans Saints.

Looking through the lens of the FanDuel pricing and scoring system, we will key in on players suited for both H2H and GPP game formats.

Head-to-Head/50/50/Double-up Format

The important thing to remember about this format is that you want assemble a team that has the highest projected “floor” scoring. The reasoning behind this is simple, you just need to be better than half of the field. Whether it is mano-a-mano or a whole crowd, the top half are victorious and the others are left wondering what just happened to them.

For this reason, we will want to focus on players that have the highest projected points per salary cap dollar. The key word to remember is probable. In today’s NFL, just about any offensive player could have a three-TD day, or they may not see the end zone for a month.

We are looking for those projected stats that are likely to occur. As a general rule of thumb, in this format on FanDuel you will need to score about 120 points in order to put your team in a good position to win. Sometimes you will win with less points, other times you will lose with a much higher score, but that is a reasonable target figure.

With an overall in-game salary cap on FanDuel of $60,000, this means we need our players to score 2 points for each $1k of salary. The roster format includes 1 QB, 2 RBs, 3 WRs, 1 TE, 1 K and 1 D/ST.

Now for the fun part, let’s look at a few players at each position that should be able to “return value” on their FanDuel
in-game salary. These will be players that I will be using myself on various iterations of my FanDuel H2H lineups this week.

Quarterback

Depending on the style that best suits your team-building preference and appetite for risk, you can go with a premium guy like Peyton Manning or Tom Brady, with a mid-tier QB who has a great matchup, or perhaps even someone who has come into the starting job after that week’s pricing was already created. The key thing to keep in mind though is that we need to find a production ratio of 2pts/$1k of salary.

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Andrew Luck $10,300 vs JAX: Once again Andrew Luck is the desired H2H option. It has been worth the premium price to get such consistent top-shelf production. The Colts boast the highest projected team score for Week 12 at 32 points. Luck will have even more of the offensive responsibilities with Ahmad Bradshaw likely to miss the remainder of the season with a fractured fibula. The icing on the cake is that the Jaguars are allowing opposing quarterbacks to throw for 262 yards per game.

Mark Sanchez $7,500 vs TEN: Back-to-back starts with 330+ passing yards and two touchdowns again earn Sanchez a place on the list as a solid H2H option. It was a little concerning that The Sanchize had four turnovers against Green Bay, although, he did not have any in the game before against Carolina. Tennessee’s pass defense is a force on paper, however, prior to facing Ben Roethlisberger on Monday Night Football, the only other notable quarterback they have faced was Andrew Luck back in Week 4. All we need from Sanchez is 275 passing yards, two touchdowns and two turnovers and he will pay off this week’s price point. Once again, I will have him on a lineup iteration.

Josh McCown $7,500 at CHI: There are a lot of things to like about Josh McCown this week. First, the opposing Chicago secondary is horrendous, giving up 256 passing yards per game and the second most aerial scores (24) in the league this season. Second, Josh McCown has only started the last two games, so most daily gamers are going to be unaware that he has actually looked pretty good. Third, and perhaps the most fun of all, this is a Revenge game with McCown having spent three seasons in the Windy City. In his two starts since replacing Mike Glennon, he has averaged just over 21 FanDuel points per game.

Running Back

While QBs are important to constructing a solid fantasy roster, RBs are crucial. Because running backs can earn points with touchdowns, rushing and passing yards, AND receptions, they are usually the most steady source of daily fantasy production. Generally it is wise to “pay up” for a premium RB in a good matchup by utilizing your savings from another position such as defense and kicker, which will be addressed in short order.

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Matt Forte $9,300 vs TB: Over his last seven games, Forte is averaging 23.2 FanDuel points per game and he is still on pace to set the single season record for receptions by a running back with 107 (the current record is 101 set by Larry Centers back in 1995). Over their last half dozen games, Tampa Bay is giving up 120 rushing yards per game and Forte is an elite back who should be able to take advantage of this matchup.

DeMarco Murray $9,000 at NYG: With the Cowboys coming off their bye week, Murray will have had two weeks off which should allow some of his nagging injuries to subside. The Giants are giving up 145 rushing yards per game, the worst in the NFL. Do not think too hard about this selection.

Justin Forsett $7,700 at NO: Forsett has been metronome steady this season, averaging 14 FanDuel points per game. He needs just 15.5 to pay off this price point and in a solid matchup against the Saints on Monday Night Football, I like Forsett as a core play this week.

Isaiah Crowell $5,500 at ATL: With the release of Ben Tate on Tuesday, it looks like Crowell will in for a steady workload this week with Terrance West the only other running back of note on the roster. This play is not for the faint of heart, with Crowell putting up 8 and 10 FanDuel points in his last two starts respectively. However, we do need to find some value this week and considering that Atlanta has surrendered the most rushing touchdowns in the league, the idea of rostering Crowell is becoming more and more appealing by the minute.

Wide Receiver

There are always great WR options at varying price levels and matchups. Typically what you do at the other positions will dictate how you assemble your receiving corps.

Top Shelf Options – Demaryius Thomas $9,000 vs MIA: Thomas regains the top H2H wide out designation with his teammates Emmanuel Sanders (concussion) and Julius Thomas (ankle) potentially out this week. If one or both sit, this cements Thomas as a near must play.

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Mid-Tier Choices – Keenan Allen $6,500 vs STL: Over the last three games, Allen has turned 35 targets into 21 receptions, 183 receiving yards and a score. The volume will continue to be there and if he can find the end zone, he will be a stellar play. Cecil Shorts $6,300 at IND: Forever plagued by nagging injuries, Shorts is not without risk. However, he is incredibly productive in garbage time and there should be a lot of that against the Colts this weekend.

Bargain Bin Ballers – Jarvis Landry $6,000 at DEN: Landry has had a very solid rookie campaign and is becoming more and more involved in the Dolphin game plan each week. With 21 targets in the last three contests and scores in two of them, Landry has decent upside at this price point. Kenny Stills $5,900 and Marques Colston $6,000 vs BAL: With Brandon Cooks placed on injured reserve, the remaining Saints receivers will have one less person to share targets with. I prefer Stills to Colston and will likely be in the minority casting my lot with him.

Tight End

Jimmy Graham $7,500 vs BAL: Graham is easily the top tight end matchup this week and he will be a mainstay on the majority of my teams. Essentially we are getting a WR1 at a discounted price.

Coby Fleener $5,400 vs JAX: If Dwayne Allen is out, Fleener will become the co-top choice at tight end. Over his last two games, Fleener has averaged just under 17 FanDuel points. If he is the only healthy tight end, he should be able to again approach double digit fantasy points against the Jaguars.

Kicker

Kickers are very tricky to project, so I typically look for the lowest-priced kicker in a decent matchup, ideally in a dome or a fair weather stadium. This week I like the minimum-priced Brandon McManus $4,500 vs DEN kicking for a top five scoring offense and if there are any weather concerns, look to Shayne Graham $4,700 vs BAL.

Defense / Special Teams (D/ST)

D/ST is another position that is very hard to predict because so much of their value comes from return touchdowns. The best teams will have 10 return scores on the season and the worst around four, which makes it tough to know which team to roster.

This looks like a good week to again spend on the top D/STs. The Bufffalo Bills $5,200 vs NYJ have been very solid this season 9+ FanDuel points per game in eight of their ten contests. The Philadelphia Eagles $5,100 vs TEN have had a knack for return touchdowns this season with nine already on the season. These types of scores are of course impossible to forecast on a weekly basis, but Lady Luck does seem to be on their side.

Editor’s Note: Tune into GrindersLive for NFL Game Night, presented by RotoGrinders, every Thursday at 7 PM, to see Eric “EMac” MacPherson, Justin “STLCardinals84” Van Zuiden and Bryan “RookieBlitz” Fontaine discuss their daily fantasy football strategies each week. Here’s the link.

Large Field Tournaments aka Guaranteed Prize Pools (GPPs)

Depending on the contest, GPPs will generally pay out 10-20% of the field. It will take an outstanding score in order to finish in the money, so your mentality needs to be that you want to be in the top 10% or finish last. Being middle of the pack or even above average does not come with any reward, so don’t be afraid to take a few risks and stray from the herd.

Quarterback

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Aaron Rodgers $10,100 at MIN: Rodgers is again arguably the best quarterback on the board this week, yes, this has become my weekly mantra. With 3+ touchdowns in six of his last seven games, it is hard to pass up on Rodgers. The only fear is that Green Bay is up by multiple scores at the half.

Jay Cutler $8,800 vs TB: Smokin’ Jay Cutler is always an option, albeit a frustrating one from the daily fantasy perspective. Just when you think he is safe, there is nothing but disappointment, then when you swear off him, he puts of some of the best numbers for the week. Cutler is most effective when paired with one of his receiving options.

Brian Hoyer $7,000 at ATL: Despite a reputation for being a running team, Cleveland has averaged 35+ passing attempts over their last five games. With likely return of Josh Gordon, whose suspension is up this week, there is a good chance for a big game from Hoyer in this matchup and he will likely be on a low percentage of rosters this week.

Running Back

Alfred Blue $7,200 vs CIN: The Texans relied heavily on the running game with Ryan Mallett getting his first start. If Arian Foster is out again, Blue should see the majority of the Houston carries against the Bengals who have the second worst rushing defense in the league.

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LeSean McCoy $7,700 vs TEN: Volume is certainly not the issue for McCoy who boasts five games with double digit FanDuel points. Yeah, that is not a big deal, however, he didn’t score a touchdown in any of them. Each week, the percentage of rosters that have McCoy on them dwindles even further. If he could get ever get uncorked for a multi-touchdown game, it would be against the terrible Titans run defense.

C.J. Anderson $7,200 vs MIA: With Ronnie Hillman and Montee Ball out for the next couple weeks, C.J. Anderson has a tremendous opportunity in front of him. He has been excellent in the passing game with 15 receptions and 192 receiving yards in his last three games. Currently even a conservative projection of 100 combined yards, four receptions and a 50/50 shot at a score will have him paying off this price point, with upside available to lead your roster to a nice GPP showing.

Wide Receiver

Generally in a GPP, it is a good idea to pair a receiver with your QB so you can double up on your points if they connect for a score or two. Remember you want to go big or go home in this format.

Alshon Jeffery $8,200 and Brandon Marshall $8,300 vs TB: Combining these guys with Cutler to form a Chicago power trio is not a bad way to go. Again, this is a high variance play (aka boom or bust) but that is what you will need to get in order to see your name-in-lights at the top of a GPP leaderboard.

Jordy Nelson $9,000, Randall Cobb $8,800 and Davante Adams $5,300 GB at MIN: If you are going with Rodgers in a large field tournament this week, you simply must pair him with at least one of his receivers.

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T.Y. Hilton $8,500 vs JAX: Andrew Luck was looking elsewhere on Sunday Night Football, so there is a good chance that some daily gamers may have forgotten just how good Hilton has been this season. Don’t be one of them and make sure to have him on at least one of your entries this week.

Mike Evans $8,400 at CHI: Rookie wide receivers often tend to fade for a few games after burning brightly. At the moment, Evans is white hot with 21 receptions, 458 receiving yards and five touchdowns over his last three games. This is a great matchup once again, however, at his current pricing level, I am relegating him to tournament play only.

Tight End

Rob Gronkowski $7,900 vs DET, and Jimmy Graham $7,500 vs BAL are all top-shelf options that you can’t go wrong with this week. In the event you are looking to save a little salary this week, consider Larry Donnell $5,500 vs DAL who have allowed the second most points to tight ends this season or Niles Paul $4,800 at SF who could be a very sneaky play if Jordan Reed is forced to sit this one out with his hamstring injury.

Kickers and Defense / Special Teams

Generally I will utilize the same handful of cheap kickers and DSTs across my H2H and GPP lineups because of their inherent boom/bust nature.

Feel free to send questions via Twitter: @EmacDFS

Good Luck Gamers!

About the Author

emac
Emac (emac)

Emac won the 2007 Fantasy Baseball grand prize (trip for two to the MLB All-Star game) in the Roto format on ESPN. He won again in 2008, this time in the H2H format. You can check out his ESPN Fantasy Experience here. Emac finished in the top ten for the DraftKings inaugural $1,000,000 Chase for the Crown promotion and also won the first ever MLB King’s Crown ($5k top prize) on DailyJoust.