H2H vs. GPP Plays: Week 13
In daily fantasy football, there are two main types of playing formats; head-to-head games (including 50/50 and double-up formats in which half of the entries win and half of the entries are very sad) and large field guaranteed prize pool tournaments (GPPs) where somewhere between 10-20% of the field is paid out.
In this article we will utilize the FanDuel Week 13 NFL contest period beginning with Sunday’s 1pm games and continuing through Monday Night Football, with the Miami Dolphins heading north to take on the New York Jets.
Looking through the lens of the FanDuel pricing and scoring system, we will key in on players suited for both H2H and GPP game formats.
Head-to-Head/50/50/Double-up Format
The important thing to remember about this format is that you want assemble a team that has the highest projected “floor” scoring. The reasoning behind this is simple, you just need to be better than half of the field. Whether it is mano-a-mano or a whole crowd, the top half are victorious and the others are left wondering what just happened to them.
For this reason, we will want to focus on players that have the highest projected points per salary cap dollar. The key word to remember is probable. In today’s NFL, just about any offensive player could have a three-TD day, or they may not see the end zone for a month.
We are looking for those projected stats that are likely to occur. As a general rule of thumb, in this format on FanDuel you will need to score about 120 points in order to put your team in a good position to win. Sometimes you will win with less points, other times you will lose with a much higher score, but that is a reasonable target figure.
With an overall in-game salary cap on FanDuel of $60,000, this means we need our players to score 2 points for each $1k of salary. The roster format includes 1 QB, 2 RBs, 3 WRs, 1 TE, 1 K and 1 D/ST.
Now for the fun part, let’s look at a few players at each position that should be able to “return value” on their FanDuel
in-game salary. These will be players that I will be using myself on various iterations of my FanDuel H2H lineups this week.
Quarterback
Depending on the style that best suits your team-building preference and appetite for risk, you can go with a premium guy like Peyton Manning or Drew Brees, with a mid-tier QB who has a great matchup, or perhaps even someone who has come into the starting job after that week’s pricing was already created. The key thing to keep in mind though is that we need to find a production ratio of 2pts/$1k of salary.
Andrew Luck $10,100 vs WAS: Well that was a little surprising to see Luck’s first sub-20 point FanDuel outing of the season against Jacksonville. He now has posted his highest and lowest scores of the season against the Jaguars. Luck has posted 300+ passing yards in eight of his last night outings and this week’s opponent, Washington, is allowing the fourth most fantasy points to quarterbacks on the season. Do not lose faith after the minor stumble last weekend.
Ryan Tannehill $8,600 at NYJ: Choosing Tannehill as the quarterback at the helm of your H2H entries may seem a little funny, but let’s dive into the numbers and see if that helps alleviate any uneasiness. On the season the New York Jets have given up 27 passing touchdowns, the most in the league. They are also allowing the third most point to opposing signal callers. Tannehill needs about 18 FanDuel points at his current price point to make us happy. He has been below 17.3 fantasy points in two of his last eight games and is actually averaging 18.8 FanDuel points per game on the season. A stat line of 250 passing yards, 2 touchdowns, 20 rushing yards and 2 turnovers will get us the exactly what we are looking for from this selection.
Eli Manning $7,200 at JAX: This selection is not for the faint of heart, however, looking at his recent game log, we can see that Eli has gone for 22+ FanDuel points in three of his last five starts. Jacksonville is allowing the sixth most passing yards in the league. Even without Victor Cruz, the younger Manning still has several effective receiving options and he can lean on his running game to keep the chains moving. Don’t put all of your eggs in this basket, however, this is a nice differentiation play that does have some upside at the current pricing level.
Running Back
While QBs are important to constructing a solid fantasy roster, RBs are crucial. Because running backs can earn points with touchdowns, rushing and passing yards, AND receptions, they are usually the most steady source of daily fantasy production. Generally it is wise to “pay up” for a premium RB in a good matchup by utilizing your savings from another position such as defense and kicker, which will be addressed in short order.
Le’Veon Bell $9,200 vs NO: The Steelers do-everything guy is the top running back option for the week. Coming off a bye week and a masterful 204 rushing yard performance in Tennessee a lot of daily gamers are going to forget about the sneaky aspect of Bell’s repertoire, the receiving game. On the season Le’Veon has 57 receptions, 484 receiving yards and two scores, which is good for just over eight FanDuel points per game.
Justin Forsett $7,600 vs SD: As my recommended core running back play last week, Forsett was on the majority of my rosters. I like him a lot again this week, though I will be happy with about half of the production we saw against the Saints on Monday Night Football. San Diego has been middle-of-the-road this season against running backs. Much like Le’Veon Bell, Forsett is very active in the passing game which keeps him on the field in most situations, providing the opportunities that we are looking for from this position.
Rashad Jennings $7,100 at JAX: Jennings will be on most of my teams where I do not already have Eli Manning. He looked good in the running game with 19 attempts after getting 18 the week before in his return from injury. As with the other running back recommendations this week, Jennings is also very active in the passing game with 12 receptions over the last two weeks. On the season the Jacksonville Jaguars have given up the fifth most fantasy points to running backs. Do not hesitate to roster Jennings this week.
Wide Receiver
There are always great WR options at varying price levels and matchups. Typically what you do at the other positions will dictate how you assemble your receiving corps.
Top Shelf Options – Antonio Brown $9,200 vs NO: Coming off a bye week, hopefully a few people have forgotten just how good Antonio Brown has been this season. He is averaging 19.7 FanDuel points per game and has had only two outings with less than 13 fantasy points. If you are spending at the wide receiver position this week, look no further.
Mid-Tier Choices – Jarvis Landry $6,900: Landry seems to have the edge now in the Bill Lazor offense. With 26 targets over the last three games compared to 20 for Mike Wallace and just seven for Brian Hartline, it appears the LSU Tiger doesn’t want his former teammate Odell Beckham Jr. to have all the fun. Keenan Allen $7,100 at BAL: The targets continue to be there for Allen, over the last four games, he has turned 44 targets into 27 receptions, 287 receiving yards and a pair of scores. The volume will continue to be there with the Ravens allowing the third most fantasy points to wide receivers this season, Allen is a fantastic option this week. Torrey Smith $6,500 vs SD: Still dependent on a big play, it is tougher to ignore Smith on a weekly basis with 12+ FanDuel points in five of his last six games.
Bargain Bin Ballers – Kenny Stills $5,100 at PIT: With Stills 8 catch 98 receiving yard performance coming on Monday Night after the pricing algorithm had already run his salary actually dropped $800. He is a great option that will allow you to upgrade your lineup at another position this week and is a complete steal at this price point.
Tight End
Jimmy Graham $7,500 at PIT: Graham is easily the top tight end matchup this week going against the eighth ranked fantasy defense against tight ends. With Brandin Cooks out for the season, Graham will continue to get the majority of the looks from Drew Brees. Essentially we are getting a WR1 at a discounted price.
Delanie Walker $5,700 at HOU: Walker looks to be over his concussion. He posted a MONSTER line against Philly with 155 yards on five receptions. In half of his games this season he has posted double digit FanDuel points and at this price that is an excellent return on investment.
Kicker
Kickers are very tricky to project, so I typically look for the lowest-priced kicker in a decent matchup, ideally in a dome or a fair weather stadium. This week I like rookie Chandler Catanzaro $4,600 at ATL kicking in the Georgia Dome and Greg Zuerlein $4,800 STL and Sebastian Janikowski $4,800 OAK squaring off in the Edward Jones Dome.
Defense / Special Teams (D/ST)
D/ST is another position that is very hard to predict because so much of their value comes from return touchdowns. The best teams will have 10 return scores on the season and the worst around four, which makes it tough to know which team to roster.
This looks like a good week to again spend at the D/ST position. The Houston Texans $5,100 vs TEN have been very solid this season averaging 9.1 FanDuel points per game over their last ten contests. The St Louis Rams $5,200 vs OAK have put up just a hair under 12 FanDuel points in their last four outings and the Raiders have scored the second fewest point in the league this season.
Editor’s Note: Tune into GrindersLive for NFL Game Night, presented by RotoGrinders, every Thursday at 7 PM, to see Eric “EMac” MacPherson, Justin “STLCardinals84” Van Zuiden and Bryan “RookieBlitz” Fontaine discuss their daily fantasy football strategies each week. Here’s the link.
Large Field Tournaments aka Guaranteed Prize Pools (GPPs)
Depending on the contest, GPPs will generally pay out 10-20% of the field. It will take an outstanding score in order to finish in the money, so your mentality needs to be that you want to be in the top 10% or finish last. Being middle of the pack or even above average does not come with any reward, so don’t be afraid to take a few risks and stray from the herd.
Quarterback
Aaron Rodgers $9,900 vs NE: Yes, last week was disappointing, however, this is a new week. With a 58 over/under this is the highest projected scoring game of the week. The Patriots have been okay against quarterbacks this season, however, they have not seen Rodgers since 2006.
Ben Roethlisberger $8,300 vs NO: On the season Roethlisberger has been phenomenal at home averaging 350+ passing yards and nearly four scores a game. The Saints are giving up the ninth most fantasy points to quarterbacks this season and with the second highest over/under on Sunday, you will be happy to get some action in this game.
Tom Brady $9,800 at GB: The price will likely keep a lot of players away from Tom Terrific this week. This is fine by me since we are looking to find those lower rostered gems to differentiate ourselves from the herd in the large field tournaments. We have seen Brady quiet the doubters time and time again, so he is definitely in play in the Game of the Week.
Running Back
C.J. Anderson $7,800 at KC: With Ronnie Hillman and Montee Ball out, C.J. Anderson wasted no time in taking control of the running back job. Because so many of Denver’s scoring comes through the passing game, I am viewing Anderson mostly as a tournament option this week. Kansas City is allowing the seventh fewest points to running backs this season, so Anderson is really going to have to earn his paycheck this week.
Tre Mason $6,000 vs OAK: Mason has been solid the last three games averaging just over 10 FanDuel points per outing, however, he has scored just one touchdown this season. Oakland is allowing the fourth most fantasy points to running backs on the season. If there is a week for Mason to really break out, it is in this matchup.
Dan “Boom” Herron $5,800 vs WAS: It appears that Herron will step right into the Ahmad Bradshaw role and be just fine. At this bargain price, he will enable you to roster a high flying WR/QB combo which is a great way to attack the large field tournaments.
Wide Receiver
Generally in a GPP it is a good idea to pair a receiver with your QB so you can double up on your points if they connect for a score or two. Remember you want to go big or go home in this format.
T.Y. Hilton $8,700 vs WAS: Hilton welcomed his newborn daughter into the world in style by dedicating a spectacular touchdown to her on Sunday. Washington has repeatedly been beat by top wide receivers this season and this weekend will likely bring a familiar outcome.
Josh Gordon $8,100 at BUF: Well, that did not take long at all. Josh Gordon looked like a top five fantasy wide receiver in his season debut. This price is about $1,000 too low so enjoy the discount while it lasts.
Jordy Nelson $8,900, Randall Cobb $8,500 and Davante Adams $5,100 vs NE: If you are going with Rodgers in a large field tournament this week, you simply must pair him with at least one of his receivers.
Kelvin Benjamin $7,900 at MIN: Coming into his bye week, Benjamin had back to back 20+ FanDuel point outings. I am betting that more gamers this week are going to by enamored by Josh Gordon who is just $200 more than Benjamin. This will help keep Benjamin on less rosters than normal.
Tight End
Rob Gronkowski $7,700 at GB: With a diverse game plan, it is hard to know from week-to-week who will be the focus of the New England Patriot offense. For that reason, I usually keep Gronk as a tournament-only option. He is definitely in play this week in what should be a high scoring game in Green Bay.
Dion Sims $4,700 at NYJ the Jets are one of the three worst teams at defending tight ends. If Charles Clay is inactive again with his leg issues, Sims is a great punt option.
Kickers and Defense / Special Teams
Generally I will utilize the same handful of cheap kickers and DSTs across my H2H and GPP lineups because of their inherent boom/bust nature.
Feel free to send questions via Twitter: @EmacDFS
Good Luck Gamers!