H2H vs. GPP Plays: Week 14
In daily fantasy football, there are two main types of playing formats; head-to-head games (including 50/50 and double-up formats in which half of the entries win and half of the entries are very sad) and large field guaranteed prize pool tournaments (GPPs) where somewhere between 10-20% of the field is paid out.
In this article we will utilize the FanDuel Week 14 NFL contest period, beginning with Sunday’s 1 PM games and continuing through Monday Night Football, as the Atlanta Falcons head north to take on the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field.
Looking through the lens of the FanDuel pricing and scoring system, we will key in on players suited for both H2H and GPP game formats.
Head-to-Head/50/50/Double-up Format
The important thing to remember about this format is that you want assemble a team that has the highest projected “floor” scoring. The reasoning behind this is simple, you just need to be better than half of the field. Whether it is mano-a-mano or a whole crowd, the top half are victorious and the others are left wondering what just happened to them.
For this reason, we will want to focus on players that have the highest projected points per salary cap dollar. The key word to remember is probable. In today’s NFL, just about any offensive player could have a three-TD day, or they may not see the end zone for a month.
We are looking for those projected stats that are likely to occur. As a general rule of thumb, in this format on FanDuel you will need to score about 120 points in order to put your team in a good position to win. Sometimes you will win with less points, other times you will lose with a much higher score, but that is a reasonable target figure.
With an overall in-game salary cap on FanDuel of $60,000, this means we need our players to score 2 points for each $1k of salary. The roster format includes 1 QB, 2 RBs, 3 WRs, 1 TE, 1 K and 1 D/ST.
Now for the fun part, let’s look at a few players at each position that should be able to “return value” on their FanDuel in-game salary. These will be players that I will be using myself on various iterations of my FanDuel H2H lineups this week.
Quarterback
Depending on the style that best suits your team-building preference and appetite for risk, you can go with a premium guy like Peyton Manning or Drew Brees, with a mid-tier QB who has a great matchup, or perhaps even someone who has come into the starting job after that week’s pricing was already created. The key thing to keep in mind though is that we need to find a production ratio of 2pts/$1k of salary.
Aaron Rodgers $10,400 vs ATL: Yes, Aaron Rodgers is the most expensive quarterback on FanDuel this week, so this feels a little like cherry-picking. However, with the likelihood that a good many daily fantasy gamers will be selecting Johnny Manziel, who will probably get the starting nod this week, and others chasing points with the cheaper Ryan Fitzpatrick coming off his career opus, Rodgers is there for those of us who are levelheaded. Last week was wild with the number of fantasy points scored, so let others get stars in their eyes, and will have the star QB on our team. Atlanta is giving up a league-high 285 passing yards per game on the season and Rodgers is averaging 330 passing yards over his last five contests. At this price point we need Rodgers to reach 23 FanDuel points to pay off for us. On the season he is averaging 23.5 FanDuel points per game and over his last seven games he is averaging just under 27 FanDuel points. Treat yourself to a little luxury this weekend.
Russell Wilson $8,500 at PHI: Yes, it is a West Coast team travelling east, but this game does have a 4:05 PM start and, looking at the NFL Vegas odds, it’s expected to be a close contest (Philly favored by 3) with a relatively high projected at 48.5 points. The Eagles have allowed 24 passing touchdowns this season, the fourth most in the NFL, and are allowing the seventh most passing yards at a robust 259 per contest. Combining this with Russell Wilson’s stellar running game – he is averaging 8.72 points on the ground over his last 10 games with 632 yards and 4 scores – and this feels like a sneaky safe play which should garner us 17+ FanDuel points with potential upside.
Shaun Hill $6,700 or Austin Davis $6,000 at WAS: Shaun Hill should again be getting the start after leading the Rams to a 52-0 victory last week, but in the event the Rams decide to switch things up again, I will still take their quarterback against Washington. On the season, Washington has allowed more fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks than any other team in the NFL. All we need Hill to get to pay off his price point is 200 passing yards, 2 touchdowns and 2 interceptions. That certainly seems doable this week.
Running Back
While QBs are important to constructing a solid fantasy roster, RBs are crucial. Because running backs can earn points with touchdowns, rushing and passing yards, AND receptions, they are usually the most steady source of daily fantasy production. Generally it is wise to “pay up” for a premium RB in a good matchup by utilizing your savings from another position such as defense and kicker, which will be addressed in short order.
Le’Veon Bell $9,300 at CIN: For the second week in a row, Bell was absolutely amazing. The bar has definitely been set high, however, if we have reasonable expectations of 18-20 FanDuel points this week, I think there is a 65% chance that Bell meets or exceeds that range. From a fantasy perspective, the Bengals are a bottom five defense against running backs this season and have given up the second most rushing touchdowns in the league. If Bell can accrue 100 combined yards, 4 receptions and a score, he will reach 18 FanDuel points. I am again locking Bell into the majority of my FanDuel NFL lineups this week.
Justin Forsett $7,400 at MIA: Once again, Forsett had a nice game that would have turned into an excellent game if he would have found the end zone. Over there last two games, the Miami Dolphins have given up 477 rushing yards on 84 attempts for a whopping 5.7 yards per carry. I am expecting Baltimore to follow the blueprint that has been laid out and am projecting Forsett to get 120 combined yards, 4 receptions and am pegging his touchdown chances at a healthy 75% on Sunday.
Rashad Jennings $7,400 or Andre Williams $6,500 at TEN: Jennings had a fantastic showing last week against the Jaguars, with 94 combined yards and two touchdowns, though he was held out most of the fourth quarter with an ankle injury. Early reports indicate that he will be a full go this week, however, in the event he is limited or out do not be afraid to pivot to Andre Williams. On the season the Titans have been terrible against the run, allowing the third most fantasy points to opposing running backs. Rashad Jennings is a solid mid-priced play this week.
Wide Receiver
There are always great WR options at varying price levels and matchups. Typically what you do at the other positions will dictate how you assemble your receiving corps.
Top Shelf Options – Calvin Johnson $9,200 at TB: Welcome back Calvin Johnson! It has been about two months since Megatron last graced the WR1 pole position for H2H games. He looked spectacular on Thanksgiving with 11 receptions 146 yards and 2 scores. Tampa Bay has been absolutely horrendous against top wideouts and will have their hands full with a healthy CJ clicking with Matthew Stafford.
Mid-Tier Choices – Jarvis Landry $6,900 vs. BAL: Landry continues to be a PPR machine and has 27 receptions for 217 yards and three scores in his last four games. Baltimore has been a bottom three defense against wide receivers all season. This once again makes Landry a go-to play. Kenny Stills $6,400 vs CAR: Stills has been excellent in the two games without Brandin Cooks and as a result has seen his price bump up significantly. He is still a great option against the Carolina Panthers this week, as they’ve been mediocre at best against wide receivers this season. Anquan Boldin $7,100 at OAK: Over his last four games, Boldin has turned 38 targets into 23 receptions for 303 yards and two scores. Boldin is one of my gut call plays this week and I have a really good feeling about this matchup.
Bargain Bin Ballers – Doug Baldwin $5,500 at PHI: When Russell Wilson does pass, one of his most frequent targets is Doug Baldwin. At this price point against the Eagles, I am finding him in quite a few of my lineups as a salary relief play.
Tight End
Travis Kelce $5,300 at ARI: Arizona has been susceptible to the tight end at times this season. At this price point, there is not a lot of downside with Kelce this week.
Jared Cook $4,900 at WAS: Cook was left without a target in last week’s contest, but that should be rectified against Washington. Cook is more like a giant wide receiver than a true tight end and should be able to rumble across the middle for a couple good gains in this matchup.
Kicker
Kickers are very tricky to project, so I typically look for the lowest-priced kicker in a decent matchup, ideally in a dome or a fair weather stadium. This week I again like rookie Chandler Catanzaro $4,700 vs KC kicking at home in Arizona and Shayne Graham $4,500 vs CAR in the climate-controlled Superdome.
Defense / Special Teams (D/ST)
D/ST is another position that is very hard to predict because so much of their value comes from return touchdowns. The best teams will have 10 return scores on the season and the worst around four, which makes it tough to know which team to roster.
This looks like a good week to again spend at the D/ST position. The Detroit Lions $5,300 vs TB have been very solid this season, averaging 8.6 FanDuel points per game over their last 10 contests. The Minnesota Vikings $5,000 vs NYJ had an excellent game last week and have another great matchup against the J-E-T-S Jets, Jets, JETS this week.
Editor’s Note: Tune into GrindersLive for NFL Game Night, presented by RotoGrinders, every Thursday at 7 PM, to see Eric “EMac” MacPherson, Justin “STLCardinals84” Van Zuiden and Bryan “RookieBlitz” Fontaine discuss their daily fantasy football strategies each week. Here’s the link.
Large Field Tournaments aka Guaranteed Prize Pools (GPPs)
Depending on the contest, GPPs will generally pay out 10-20% of the field. It will take an outstanding score in order to finish in the money, so your mentality needs to be that you want to be in the top 10% or finish last. Being middle of the pack or even above average does not come with any reward, so don’t be afraid to take a few risks and stray from the herd.
Quarterback
Drew Brees $9,400 vs CAR: Over the last two weeks, Brees has put up some phenomenal numbers, posting 677 passing yards and 8 aerial scores. However, I am still not quite ready to trust him in my H2H games just yet, because in the three-game stretch prior to his resurgence, he averaged just 18 FanDuel points per game. On the season Carolina is allowing 244 passing yards and 2 touchdowns per game. I think Brees has a 50% chance at 300 yards and 3 scores, so I am utilizing him as an upside play this week.
Colt McCoy $6,800 vs STL: Washington is going to need to throw from the opening drive if they want to have a chance to beat St. Louis this week. DeSean Jackson is doubtful for this contest, however, last week McCoy managed to throw for 308 yards and 2 scores to receivers other than Jackson. Because McCoy is a volume based thrower that works the short passing game, the loss of Jackson should not impede his results, but rather work in our favor and keep him off of a lot of rosters in the large field tournaments.
Running Back
Joique Bell $6,800 vs TB: With Reggie Bush unable to stay on the field, Joique Bell is getting all of the premium running back touches. As nearly double-digit favorites, Detroit should be playing from ahead for most of the second half. This bodes well for Bell to get a heavy workload, and he will likely be under-owned since most daily fantasy gamers will be looking to brighter and shinier options. Don’t miss out on this excellent play.
Dan “Boom” Herron $6,400 at CLE: I have a feeling that Cleveland may be a little frisky this week with Josh Gordon back in the swing of things and a potential start by Johnny Manziel. The Colts are going to need to keep the foot on the gas, and that bodes well for Herron to increase his touches via the air and ground game. As we saw with Ahmad Bradshaw this season, there is fantasy gold in this backfield.
Wide Receiver
Generally in a GPP it is a good idea to pair a receiver with your QB so you can double up on your points if they connect for a score or two. Remember you want to go big or go home in this format.
Josh Gordon $8,000 vs IND: In his two games back, Josh Gordon has been targeted an amazing 29 times. Surprisingly he has yet to score, but that should change this week. If Indianapolis defensive back Vontae Davis is out, Gordon becomes a near must play in all formats this week.
Jordy Nelson $8,900, Randall Cobb $8,400 and Davante Adams $6,000 vs ATL: In the matchup against the Falcons’ league worst passing defense, you will definitely want to have some exposure to the Green Bay aerial attack on Monday Night Football.
Kelvin Benjamin $7,500 and Corey (Philly) Brown $5,400 at NO: Kelvin’s disappointing single-digit fantasy performance last weekend should have a lot of daily fantasy gamers looking elsewhere. The Panthers are going to need all-hands-on-deck if they want to keep up with the Saints this week. Look for a bounce-back performance and something in the 15-17 FanDuel point range. Corey (Philly) Brown is a sneaky play who also deserves consideration in this matchup. He has scored a touchdown in each of his last two games and he will definitely be on less than 5% of all tournament rosters this week.
Tight End
Rob Gronkowski $7,700 at SD and Jimmy Graham $7,100 vs CAR: Anyone who paid up for tight ends last week was left feeling very empty and angry. This will happen from time-to-time on any given Sunday. This is the week to go back to the well and trust that top talent will win out more often than not.
Kickers and Defense / Special Teams
Generally I will utilize the same handful of cheap kickers and DSTs across my H2H and GPP lineups because of their inherent boom/bust nature.
Feel free to send questions via Twitter: @EmacDFS
Good Luck Gamers!