H2H vs. GPP Plays: Week 16
In daily fantasy football, there are two main types of playing formats; head-to-head games (including 50/50 and double-up formats in which half of the entries win and half of the entries are very sad) and large field guaranteed prize pool tournaments (GPPs) where somewhere between 10-20% of the field is paid out.
In this article we will utilize the FanDuel Week 16 NFL contest period, beginning with Sunday’s 1 PM games and continuing through Monday Night Football, with the Denver Broncos heading north to take on the Cincinnati Bengals inside Paul Brown Stadium.
Looking through the lens of the FanDuel pricing and scoring system, we will key in on players suited for both H2H and GPP game formats.
Head-to-Head/50/50/Double-up Format
The important thing to remember about this format is that you want assemble a team that has the highest projected “floor” scoring. The reasoning behind this is simple, you just need to be better than half of the field. Whether it is mano-a-mano or a whole crowd, the top half are victorious and the others are left wondering what just happened to them.
For this reason, we will want to focus on players that have the highest projected points per salary cap dollar. The key word to remember is probable. In today’s NFL, just about any offensive player could have a three-TD day, or they may not see the end zone for a month.
We are looking for those projected stats that are likely to occur. As a general rule of thumb, in this format on FanDuel you will need to score about 120 points in order to put your team in a good position to win. Sometimes you will win with less points, other times you will lose with a much higher score, but that is a reasonable target figure.
With an overall in-game salary cap on FanDuel of $60,000, this means we need our players to score 2 points for each $1k of salary. The roster format includes 1 QB, 2 RBs, 3 WRs, 1 TE, 1 K and 1 D/ST.
Now for the fun part, let’s look at a few players at each position that should be able to “return value” on their FanDuel in-game salary. These will be players that I will be using myself on various iterations of my FanDuel H2H lineups this week.
Quarterback
Depending on the style that best suits your team-building preference and appetite for risk, you can go with a premium guy like
Peyton Manning or Drew Brees, with a mid-tier QB who has a great matchup, or perhaps even someone who has come into the starting job after that week’s pricing was already created. The key thing to keep in mind though is that we need to find a production ratio of 2pts/$1k of salary.
Andrew Luck $9,900 at DAL: Well, that was Luck’s most disappointing game of the season, but it has also provided a bit of a price break and is keeping him under a five-figure salary cap hit this week. Dallas is allowing the 10th-most passing yards per game this season (250) and the entire Colts offense rolls through their signal caller. Indianapolis is looking to get a first round bye, so they should still be going all out this weekend against the Cowboys in a game with the second highest projected points total at a robust 55.5.
Drew Brees $9,100 vs ATL: Yes, after his showing on Monday Night Football against the Bears in Chicago, Brees has moved back into the ranks of safe H2H quarterback options. Over his last four games, two road and two home, Brees is averaging 322 passing yards and three scores per outing. The Falcons are allowing a league-worst 293 passing yards per game. Don’t think too much about this play.
Alex Smith $7,400 at PIT: Well, it is a bit of a mystery as to who could be a decent discount option in the Sunday H2H games this week. The least expensive option I am willing to roll the dice with is going to be Alex Smith. He has actually be solid in this last two games with 590 passing yards, 42 rushing yards and three aerial scores coming at home against Oakland and in Arizona. This week’s opponents, the Pittsburgh Steelers, have allowed the fifth-most passing touchdowns (25) and are giving up the eighth-most passing yards (253) per game. At his price point, we just need Smith to get 15-16 FanDuel points, something he has achieved in three of his last four games. He should be a decent differentiation play Sunday.
Running Back
While QBs are important to constructing a solid fantasy roster, RBs are crucial. Because running backs can earn points with touchdowns, rushing and passing yards, AND receptions, they are usually the most steady source of daily fantasy production. Generally it is wise to “pay up” for a premium RB in a good matchup by utilizing your savings from another position such as defense and kicker, which will be addressed in short order.
Le’Veon Bell $9,300 vs KC: It is Le’Veon Bell as the top running back again, and it isn’t even close. While Kansas City has allowed just two rushing scores this season, they give up the fifth most yards to opposing running backs. Bell should have room to operate and he has been racking up receiving points all season when the Steelers are coming from behind. This makes him an effective play in all scenarios and one of the most desirable targets for Week 16.
C.J. Anderson $7,800 at CIN: Despite their stellar showing against Cleveland last weekend, the Bengals have had issues against good running attacks this season, allowing the fourth-most fantasy points to the position this season. At some point, the workload is going to catch up to Anderson, as he is averaging nearly 30 touches over his last four games. However, after waiting his turn behind Montee Ball and Ronnie Hillman, he has really only played a lot in the last month, so he should still have some life left in his legs. Ronnie Hillman has returned to practice this week, so monitor his status and any potential change in Anderson’s role.
Joique Bell $7,300 at CHI: Bell continues to be solid for the Lions and should once again be the lead back against the Bears, who have been mediocre against the run this season. Over his last three games, Bell has averaged 79 rushing yards, 3.7 receptions and 35.7 receiving yards with four touchdowns. He should be good once again for 15-17 fantasy points, and we have seen his upside with multiple touchdowns in two of his last three contests.
The Replacements: As of this writing, there are several running back situations to monitor, which may ultimately open up value. For example, DeMarco Murray had surgery on his hand today and is unlikely to play this week, so depending on the news, Joseph Randle $4,900 and/or Lance Dunbar $4,500 may end up as the starter for Dallas. The San Francisco 49ers will likely name a starter late in the week with Frank Gore and Carlos Hyde both dealing with injuries, and there is a chance that Knile Davis $5,900 may see an increased role if Jamaal Charles doesn’t bounce back from his myriad of nicks, bruises and a potential concussion.
Wide Receiver
There are always great WR options at varying price levels and matchups. Typically what you do at the other positions will dictate how you assemble your receiving corps.
Top Shelf Options – Odell Beckham Jr $9,000 at STL: ODB has earned another week as the top wide receiver play. Eli appears to only have eyes for him with 49 targets over the last four games, and Beckham Jr. has turned those looks into 40 receptions for 509 yards and six touchdowns.
Mid-Tier Choices – Jarvis Landry $7,000 vs MIN: While not quite as spectacular as his LSU teammate, Landry continues to be a PPR machine. Over his last half a dozen games, he has averaged 9 targets, 6.8 receptions and 62 yards. This makes his floor very high, which is key for H2H games. Harry Douglas $6,600 at NO: if Julio Jones is out again this week, do not hesitate to roster Douglas, who can be had at a nice discount to teammate Roddy White. Kenny Stills $6,100 and Marques Colston $6,100 vs ATL: Both receivers have been active in the passing game, and this is a great matchup against the Falcons, who are a bottom five fantasy defense against wide receivers.
Bargain Bin Ballers – Jermaine Kearse $5,000 at ARI: For his near minimum price, Kearse has been relatively productive in the Seattle passing game the last three weeks as the secondary option for Russell Wilson. The Seahawks do not pass a lot, but Kearse is averaging 7.3 FanDuel points per game over his last three contests.
Tight End
Jason Witten $5,300 vs IND: The Colts have been horrible against tight ends this season and are a bottom three defense from a fantasy perspective. Witten has three double-digit fantasy point games in his last five, so that is a nice upside for this price.
Rob Gronkowski $7,800 at NYJ: Yes, it is a lofty price and the Pats are double-digit road favorites against the Jets, however, Gronk is averaging 15.2 FanDuel points per game. If you can afford the luxury this week as running back value emerges, go for it!
Kicker
Kickers are very tricky to project, so I typically look for the lowest-priced kicker in a decent matchup, ideally in a dome or a fair weather stadium. This week, there are a pair of discount options I am focusing on in Greg Zuerlein $4,700 vs NYG kicking at home in the Edward Jones Dome and Shayne Graham $4,700 vs ATL in the climate-controlled Superdome.
Defense / Special Teams (D/ST)
D/ST is another position that is very hard to predict because so much of their value comes from return touchdowns. The best teams will have 10 return scores on the season and the worst around four, which makes it tough to know which team to roster.
This looks like a good week to again spend at the D/ST position. With the Baltimore Ravens $5,400 at HOU facing either Case Keenum or Thad Lewis and the Seattle Seahawks $5,500 at ARI taking on the not-so-dynamic duo of Ryan Lindley and Logan Thomas. If you need to save a little, look to the Buffalo Bills $5,100 at OAK, who have been amazing this season, averaging 11.8 FanDuel points per game over their last ten contests.
Editor’s Note: Tune into GrindersLive for NFL Game Night, presented by RotoGrinders, every Thursday at 7 PM, to see Eric “EMac” MacPherson, Justin “STLCardinals84” Van Zuiden and Bryan “RookieBlitz” Fontaine discuss their daily fantasy football strategies each week. Here’s the link.
Large Field Tournaments aka Guaranteed Prize Pools (GPPs)
Depending on the contest, GPPs will generally pay out 10-20% of the field. It will take an outstanding score in order to finish in the money, so your mentality needs to be that you want to be in the top 10% or finish last. Being middle of the pack or even above average does not come with any reward, so don’t be afraid to take a few risks and stray from the herd.
Quarterback
Aaron Rodgers $10,000 at TB: Coming off arguably his worst game in several seasons, Rodgers will not have to wait too long to rebound, as he’s getting to face the shaky Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who have been a bottom ten passing defense for the majority of the season. As double-digit favorites, there is a chance Rodgers leads the Packers out to a big lead in the first half and Green Bay may become content to just run down the clock with Eddie Lacy and James Starks, so I do not want to go all-in on the Discount Doublecheck pitchman this Sunday.
Matthew Stafford $8,200 at CHI: The Bears have given up the most fantasy points to quarterbacks this season and they certainly did not look interested in playing defense on Monday Night Football. Detroit has been getting leads lately and relying on their rushing attack to finish out games. However, Chicago has been so bad – if you close your eyes, can’t you envision a scenario in which Stafford gets a hat trick with two scores to Calvin Johnson and another to Golden Tate?
Running Back
Arian Foster $8,800 vs BAL: With Houston down to a third-string quarterback and facing the #1 fantasy rushing defense, this is a long shot play. However, we have seen Arian Foster pull off the unexpected time and time again. This is a gut call.
Tre Mason $6,500 vs NYG: This season, the NY Giants have been mired in the bottom third of fantasy rushing defenses. We have seen that Mason is getting all the touches in the Rams backfield, and he is not too far removed from a MONSTER game. At this price, he is worth a long look for his upside potential.
Wide Receiver
Generally in a GPP it is a good idea to pair a receiver with your QB so you can double up on your points if they connect for a score or two. Remember you want to go big or go home in this format.
Calvin Johnson $9,200 at CHI: It was less than a month ago that Megatron went wild on Thanksgiving against the Bears. He always has multi-touchdown upside, but it really seems like that is in play this weekend.
Jordy Nelson $8,800, Randall Cobb $8,300 and Davante Adams $5,400 at TB: Pairing one or more of these guys with Aaron Rodgers has paid off a few times this season. This is a decent matchup to give it another whirl.
Dez Bryant $8,600 vs IND: Normally I wouldn’t want to chase points, but he looked so dominant on Sunday Night Football against the Eagles. Hopefully the matchup with Vontae Davis will scare off some daily fantasy gamers.
Josh Gordon $7,500 at CAR: After last week’s stinker by Johnny Manziel, I expect all of the Browns to be under-owned in the large field tournaments.
Tight End
This week I really like Jason Witten $5,300 vs IND and Rob Gronkowski $7,800 at NYJ as detailed above and will be focusing on utilizing them for my GPP rosters as well as my H2H contests.
Kickers and Defense / Special Teams
Generally I will utilize the same handful of cheap kickers and DSTs across my H2H and GPP lineups because of their inherent boom/bust nature.
Feel free to send questions via Twitter: @EmacDFS
Good Luck Gamers!