H2H vs. GPP Plays: Week 8
In daily fantasy football, there are two main types of playing formats; head-to-head games (including 50/50 and double-up formats in which half of the entries win and half of the entries are very sad) and large field guaranteed prize pool tournaments (GPPs) where somewhere between 10-20% of the field is paid out.
In this article we will utilize the FanDuel Week 8 NFL contest period beginning with Sunday’s 1 PM games and continuing through Monday Night Football, when Washington will be heading to Dallas to face the Cowboys.
Looking through the lens of the FanDuel pricing and scoring system, we will key in on players suited for both H2H and GPP game formats.
Head-to-Head/50/50/Double-up Format
The important thing to remember about this format is that you want assemble a team that has the highest projected “floor” scoring. The reasoning behind this is simple, you just need to be better than half of the field. Whether it is mano-a-mano or a whole crowd, the top half are victorious and the others are left wondering what just happened to them.
For this reason, we will want to focus on players that have the highest projected points per salary cap dollar. The key word to remember is probable. In today’s NFL, just about any offensive player could have a 3-TD day, or they may not see the end zone for a month.
We are looking for those projected stats that are likely to occur. As a general rule of thumb, in this format on FanDuel you will need to score about 120 points in order to put your team in a good position to win. Sometimes you will win with less points, other times you will lose with a much higher score, but that is a reasonable target figure.
With an overall in-game salary cap on FanDuel of $60,000, this means we need our players to score 2 points for each $1k of salary. The roster format includes 1 QB, 2 RBs, 3 WRs, 1 TE, 1 K and 1 D/ST.
Now for the fun part, let’s look at a few players at each position that should be able to “return value” on their FanDuel in-game salary. These will be players that I will be using myself on various iterations of my FanDuel H2H lineups this week.
Quarterback
Depending on the style that best suits your team-building preference and appetite for risk, you can go with a premium guy like Peyton Manning or Philip Rivers, with a mid-tier QB who has a great matchup, or perhaps even someone who has come into the starting job after that week’s pricing was already created. The key thing to keep in mind though is that we need to find a production ratio of 2pts/$1k of salary.
Andrew Luck $9,900 at PIT: While the Steelers are only giving up 226 passing yards per game, their secondary is vulnerable, and so I fully expect Luck to have another monster game with close to 350 passing yards and three touchdowns. Lofty projections for sure, but Luck is averaging 25.7 FanDuel points per game and has already had two 30+ point performances.
Aaron Rodgers $10,000 at NO: Yes, I do realize that I have recommended the two most expensive signal callers on FanDuel this Sunday. Not to fear dear reader: there is plenty of value at the running back position this week to allow us to have the luxury of spending on our quarterbacks. Last week against Carolina, Rodgers was a ridiculously efficient 19-for-22 with 255 yards and three TDs, adding 21 rushing yards for good measure. With the Packers in control from their opening possession, they didn’t need Rodgers to do much heavy lifting. Taking on the Saints in the Superdome, I expect there to be a lot of scoring by both teams, and this bodes well for Rodgers to pad his yardage totals.
Ryan Tannehill $8,400 at JAX: This is what is known as a differentiation play, meaning a lot of other daily fantasy gamers will not even think about rostering Tannehill. Heck I wouldn’t have either until I started looking into his numbers. He has had three games in a row with 20+ FanDuel points, as the new offensive scheme is starting to click. Jacksonville is allowing 280 passing yards per game, which is the third worst in the NFL this season. Tannehill’s confidence should be at an all-time high after the road victory in Chicago on Sunday.
Running Back
While QBs are important to constructing a solid fantasy roster, RBs are crucial. Because running backs can earn points with touchdowns, rushing and passing yards, AND receptions, they are usually the most steady source of daily fantasy production. Generally it is wise to “pay up” for a premium RB in a good matchup by utilizing your savings from another position such as defense and kicker, which will be addressed in short order.
Jerick McKinnon $5,800 at TB: It looks like the Vikings have a new lead running back in McKinnon. With 101 yards on 21 touches last week, the only thing missing from his performance was a touchdown. Tampa Bay is allowing 128 rushing yards per game and giving up the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing rushers. I like McKinnon to get his first career touchdown this week.
Andre Ellington $7,400 vs PHI: On the season, the Eagles are allowing 124.3 rushing yards per game, but have given up a league-low two touchdowns. Fortunately, Ellington derives a lot of his production from the passing game with 16 receptions for 210 yards and a score over the last three games. He should be a full go, but do monitor the injury news as Ellington was a little banged up after his career-high 30 touches this past weekend.
Justin Forsett $6,700 at CIN: Forsett was solid last weekend with a season-high 23 carries, though for the second week in a row he did not have a reception. Cincinnati is allowing the third-most rushing yards per game at 146.3, so there should be ample opportunity for Forsett to have another productive game.
Bryce Brown $5,500 and Anthony Dixon $5,900 at NYJ: With both C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson lost to injury, there will be a new starter in the Bills backfield. Brown was acquired via trade from Philadelphia in the offseason. He has been a healthy inactive all year, but it is my belief that he will be the starter against the Jets. In the event that Brown is not the starter, I don’t mind rolling with Dixon, though he does not have the same upside potential as Brown.
Wide Receiver
There are always great WR options at varying price levels and matchups. Typically what you do at the other positions will dictate how you assemble your receiving corps.
Top Shelf Options – Jordy Nelson $8,800 at NO: Once again Nelson is the number one wide receiver play. On the season, he is averaging 18.7 FanDuel points per game, and he has scored less than 12.8 points just once.
Mid-Tier Choices – Pierre Garcon $7,300 at DAL: Even with a new coach, Washington is still making bizarre decisions and may actually be starting Colt McCoy on Monday Night Football. Regardless of who is at the helm of the Washington offense, Pierre Garcon will be heavily involved. Doug Baldwin $6,800 at CAR: He stepped into the lead receiver role with the departure of Percy Harvin, and he did not disappoint with seven receptions for 123 yards and a score. It is reasonable to expect half a dozen catches this week for close to 100 yards against Carolina. Louis Murphy $6,500 vs MIN: Coming off a bye week, a lot of players are forgotten about. Murphy has had three great games of 11+ FanDuel points and should be in line for double digits again this week.
Bargain Bin Ballers – Brandon LaFell $5,300 vs CHI: With a long week to prepare after last Thursday’s contest against the Jets, I fully expect LaFell to be a larger part of the game plan this week. Davante Adams $5,400 at NO: As mentioned in the Aaron Rodgers analysis, this is projecting to be a high-scoring game and the Packers are going to need all-hands-on-deck if they hope to get a road victory. Jarius Wright $5,000 at TB: The Pewter Pirates are allowing a league-worst 295 passing yards per game. Over the last four games, Wright has been targeted 28 times, the highest on the Vikings over that time frame.
Tight End
Jordan Reed $5,200 at DAL: The Redskins, as we mentioned, may be rolling out Colt McCoy on Monday Night. Regardless of who ends up starting, we anticipate Reed will be heavily involved, and with the Cowboys’ inability to stop opposing tight ends, I am expecting another solid fantasy performance this week.
Owen Daniels $5,500 at CIN: Once again Daniels was solid in his starting role last week, getting nine targets in a game in which Joe Flacco threw just 25 passes. The Bengals are allowing more fantasy points to tight ends than any other team this season. EDITOR’S NOTE: Owen Daniels is out for this week after minor knee surgery.
Kicker
Kickers are very tricky to project, so I typically look for the lowest-priced kicker in a decent matchup, ideally in a dome or a fair weather stadium. This week I again like Cairo Santos $4,700 vs STL and the minimum-priced Patrick Murray $4,600 vs MIN.
Defense / Special Teams (D/ST)
D/ST is another position that is very hard to predict because so much of their value comes from return touchdowns. The best teams will have 10 return scores on the season and the worst around four, which makes it tough to know which team to roster.
Generally I start at the bottom of the price list and work my way up until I find a defense that has a matchup that doesn’t completely scare me. This week I am mixing in the Cleveland Browns $4,900 vs OAK, who have scored just 23 points in their two road games this season and the Dallas Cowboys $4,700 vs WAS, who will likely be facing Colt McCoy, who last started a game in 2011. If you have a little salary cap left to spend on a defense this week, then look to the Miami Dolphins $5,400 at JAX taking on the Jaguars, who allow opposing fantasy D/STs to get in double figures each week, or the Buffalo Bills $5,300 at NYJ.
Editor’s Note: Tune into GrindersLive for NFL Game Night, presented by RotoGrinders, every Thursday at 7 PM, to see Eric “EMac” MacPherson, Justin “STLCardinals84” Van Zuiden and Bryan “RookieBlitz” Fontaine discuss their daily fantasy football strategies each week. Here’s the link.
Large Field Tournaments aka Guaranteed Prize Pools (GPPs)
Depending on the contest, GPPs will generally pay out 10-20% of the field. It will take an outstanding score in order to finish in the money, so your mentality needs to be that you want to be in the top 10% or finish last. Being middle of the pack or even above average does not come with any reward, so don’t be afraid to take a few risks and stray from the herd.
Quarterback
Nick Foles $8,200 at ARI: Yes, he has been over 20 FanDuel points just once this season, but he will almost certanily have a very low ownership percentage, and let’s not forget about last season when he had a game with seven touchdown passes. The Cardinals are giving up the second-most passing yards this season at 285 per game, so is it a stretch to think that 300 yards and four TDs is an impossible task?
Kyle Orton $7,200 at NYJ: Well, I can honestly say I did not expect to be writing up a Kyle Orton recommendation this season, but he has been deserving. In his three appearances, he has averaged 28 completions on 41 attempts and just shy of 300 yards per game, so the opportunity is definitely there. With both starting running backs out for the foreseeable future, this seems like a good spot to roll the dice with Orton.
Jay Cutler $8,300 at NE: Here’s another QB who will have low ownership after last week’s eight-point dud, especially since New England is allowing the fewest passing yards in the league this season at 208 per game. Cutler is capable of flirting with 30 FanDuel points on any given day, but this is an off-off-the-board play and not for the faint of heart.
Running Back
Jamaal Charles $8,700 vs STL: Charles looked good last week against San Diego, and once again I don’t mind rolling with his multi-touchdown potential. St. Louis has been effective at preventing opponents to score via the ground game with just five touchdowns allowed this season. However, the Rams are allowing the fifth-highest amount of rushing yards (145) per game.
DeMarco Murray $9,600 vs WAS: Murray has had a tremendous workload this season, averaging 30 combined touches per game. At some point he will likely leave a game early with an injury, which is why I am relegating him to GPP status. Washington is a mess right now and just lost Brian Orakpo for the season. I am looking for Dallas to make a big statement on Monday night, with Murray at the forefront of the scoring binge. I think he could be in line for 100+ yards and two scores before getting the rest of the night off.
Travaris Cadet $5,300 vs GB: With Pierre Thomas out for the next couple weeks, Cadet is a sneaky play, as he has seen 20 targets in his last three games. That is a lot of volume for a guy that’s taking part in what should be a high-scoring game, and makes Cadet a great off-the-radar play.
Wide Receiver
Generally in a GPP, it is a good idea to pair a receiver with your QB so you can double up on your points if they connect for a score or two. Remember you want to go big or go home in this format.
Sammy Watkins $7,300 at NYJ: Coming off an outstanding two-touchdown game, I think we will be seeing a lot more of Watkins this season. This week I really like him as a combination play with Kyle Orton against the Jets, who have allowed a league-leading 18 passing touchdowns on the year.
Andrew Hawkins $6,000 vs OAK: Excluding his Week 6 dud against Pittsburgh in which he had just two targets for no catches, Hawkins is averaging double-digit targets each week. I like him to get his first touchdown of 2014 in this matchup.
T.Y. Hilton $7,900 at PIT: With Reggie Wayne out for the next couple weeks, Hilton will be leaned on even more. Through seven games, he has had 68 targets for 47 receptions, 711 yards and one score. Ahmad Bradshaw has snagged six receiving touchdowns out of the backfield, but I expect some of those to end up with Hilton going forward.
Alshon Jeffery $7,700 and Brandon Marshall $7,400 at NE: If you are going to take Cutler, definitely pair him with one or both of his top receivers. This is definitely a go-big-or-go-home play and best reserved for the lower-entry-level tournaments.
Torrey Smith $6,500 at CIN: Hooray for Torrey Smith, who is back in our good graces with 12+ FanDuel points in three of his last four contests. The Bengals are giving up 271 passing yards per game and do not have anyone that can match up effectively with Smith this week.
Tight End
Dwayne Allen $6,000 at PIT: With Reggie Wayne injured and Hakeem Nicks ineffective, Allen will be the number two passing option for Andrew Luck this week. He has two-touchdown upside.
Travis Kelce $5,700 vs STL: It was a little disappointing to look at the game logs and see that Kelce was only on the field for just over half the snaps last week (in the three games prior to that, he had been playing close to 60%). He is still a very talented young player that the Chiefs will be counting on in big moments. However, until the consistency is there for Kelce, I am relegating him to my GPP contests this week.
Rob Gronkowski $7,200 vs CHI: On the flipside, Gronk rarely left the field last week, though for his lofty price tag I am considering him a GPP-only play once more.
Kickers and Defense / Special Teams
Generally I will utilize the same handful of cheap kickers and DSTs across my H2H and GPP lineups because of their inherent boom/bust nature.
Feel free to send questions via Twitter: @EmacDFS
Good Luck Gamers!