H3budda's MMA Article
UFC Vegas 269: Oliveira vs Poirier
Remember to read the full breakdown as the highlighted picks don’t always dictate how you should be playing the fight.
(Odds are as of the writing of the article)
Charles Oliveira vs Dustin Poirier
Fight Odds: Charles Oliveira +140 vs Dustin Poirier -165
Odds to finish: -370
DraftKings: Charles Oliveira $7600 vs Dustin Poirier $8600
FanDuel: Charles Oliveira vs Dustin Poirier
Weight Class: Light
This is an extremely high level title fight. Both guys are hardened veterans in the octagon and have different styles. Oliveira has been known to be a submission hunter who looks to backpack you or take you down. Oliveira’s striking has evolved over the years and improved quite a bit. Dustin Poirier is well rounded and looks to keep it standing for the most part. I think that the gas tank is on Dustin’s side. He has gone 5 rounds before and Oliveira never has. Both guys are incredibly interesting as plays and one will score very well for their salaries. Oliveira has that grappling that scores well over 5 rounds and I do like that in this spot. I expect Poirier to be slightly more popular. The volume on Dustin can win you this spot as well. I look to use the lower owned guy so keep an eye on ownership.
Poirier via KO/TKO
Amanda Nunes vs Julianna Pena
Fight Odds: Amanda Nunes -900 vs Julianna Pena +600
Odds to finish: -700
DraftKings: Amanda Nunes $9500 vs Julianna Pena $6500
FanDuel: Amanda Nunes vs Julianna Pena
Weight Class: Welter
The women’s mma (and dfs) GOAT Nunes comes back to the UFC to defend her Bantamweight belt. In women’s MMA we rarely see a fight -700 to finish inside the distance. There’s really no way to break this fight down other than Nunes is so much more skilled in all departments of MMA. I expect Nunes to have a very strong score in a finish or even a drawn out decision. She continually takes over and scores tremendously well. It all comes down to Pena’s durability. She’s been submitted by a kickboxer before. Even at the elevated price I think Nunes is still a bit of a value. She should realistically be even higher than the -900! Fade at your own risk.
Nunes via KO/TKO
Geoff Neal vs Santiago Ponzinibbio
Fight Odds: Geoff Neal -110 vs Santiago Ponzinibbio -110
Odds to finish: TBD
DraftKings: Geoff Neal $8000 vs Santiago Ponzinibbio $8200
FanDuel: Geoff Neal vs Santiago Ponzinibbio
Weight Class: Welter
Neal just had a DUI and gun charge a couple weeks ago. You have to lead the breakdown with that because there are a lot of question marks in his corner. With that being said I think you have a couple outcomes in this fight. Ponzi has been knocked out in his last two losses. The upside play is Neal to win by knockout in this spot. I wonder if people will even bother going here with all of the question marks on his side. If Ponzi wins he will likely not score too well. All he does is fight to a decision and it would be tough to get enough volume to make up for his salary. It’s a dog or pass for me due to the ceiling that Neal has.
Ponzinibbio via Dec
Kai Kara-France vs Cody Garbrandt
Fight Odds: Kai Kara-France +115 vs Cody Garbrandt -135
Odds to finish: -165
DraftKings: Kai Kara-France $7100 vs Cody Garbrandt $8700
FanDuel Kai Kara-France vs Cody Garbrandt
Weight Class: Fly
Cody moves down to flyweight for the first time in this fight. His durability has been in question for a long time. Cody should have a speed and power advantage moving down. Kai has been hurt in some of his fights but overall is rather durable. Kai doesn’t strike me as a fantasy darling and doesn’t offer grappling. It all comes down to if he can finish the chinny Cody. I think there’s a closer to 50/50 shot at a finish overall. For that I still think it is a true second tier play for either of these guys.
Kara-France via KO/TKO
Raulian Paiva vs Sean O’Malley
Fight Odds: Raulian Paiva +250 vs Sean O’Malley -300
Odds to finish: -145
DraftKings: Raulian Paiva $7100 vs Sean O’Malley $9100
*FanDuel: * Raulian Paiva vs Sean O’Malley
Weight Class: Bantam
Paiva has never been knocked out clean in any of his fights. He lost by doctor stoppage for a cut once. I believe this is a steep test for O’Malley because of that. Most of Sean’s opponents had been knocked out in the past before facing him. There’s still a lot of hype built into O’Malley’s betting line and you could argue that Paiva has more win equity than it shows. Everyone will want to roster O’Malley as usual at his elevated price makes him difficult to pay off. I think even in a knockout win he could struggle to hit optimal. I am going to use Paiva in my very contrarian lineups because of his potential leverage.
O’Malley via Dec
Josh Emmett vs Dan Ige
Fight Odds: Josh Emmett -165 vs Dan Ige +140
Odds to finish: +120
DraftKings: Josh Emmett $8800 vs Dan Ige $7400
*FanDuel: *Josh Emmett vs Dan Ige
Weight Class: Feather
Emmett has one of the most impressive knockdown rates in the whole UFC. He is heavy handed and carries his power deep into the fight. His wrestling background prevents people from taking him down. I think Ige will need to try to mix in takedowns in order to stay out of trouble. It seems like all of Ige’s fights are incredibly close. Emmett is firmly in a difficult price range because it all comes down to a finish. I think he’s in a secondary target on this slate. Ige’s wins probably look like a slow pace with him attempting takedowns or cage control. That may not score too poorly. Overall it’s a tricky fight to target on a slate full of better options (per dollar).
Emmett via Dec
Pedro Munhoz vs Dominick Cruz
Fight Odds: Pedro Munhoz -110 vs Dominick Cruz -110
Odds to finish: +145
DraftKings: Pedro Munhoz $8100 vs Dominick Cruz $8100
*FanDuel: *Pedro Munhoz vs Dominick Cruz
Weight Class: Bantam
This is a striker’s delight where both guys will be more than happy to keep it on the feet and swing. Volume will mean everything in this fight. Both guys have decent output overall. It’s just a fight that lacks finishing upside (-200 to go to a decision). Leg kicks from Munhoz will slow the pace down. Cruz will have his wild back and forth stance changes and light up Munhoz as he comes forward. I don’t see a ton of finishing upside so therefore it shouldn’t be a massive target in your lineups.
Cruz via Dec
Augusto Sakai vs Tai Tuivasa
Fight Odds: Augusto Sakai -110 vs Tai Tuivasa -110
Odds to finish: -230
DraftKings: Augusto Sakai $7900 vs Tai Tuivasa $8300
FanDuel: Augusto Sakai vs Tai Tuivasa
Weight Class: Heavy
The lone heavyweight bout has a lot of fantasy relevance on this card. When this fight finishes it is going to be a very high score. Tuivasa has the power and better value upside on his price tag. He is +130 to win inside the distance at just $8300 on DK. That’s something I like to target at a high rate. Sakai has been hittable in his fights and saw some setbacks the last couple times out.
Tuivasa via KO/TKO
Jordan Wright vs Bruno Silva
Fight Odds: Jordan Wright +280 vs Bruno Silva -340
Odds to finish: -400
DraftKings: Jordan Wright $6800 vs Bruno Silva $9400
FanDuel: Jordan Wright vs Bruno Silva
Weight Class: Middle
This is an absolute banger in the middle of the card. It’s the most likely to finish inside the distance and a super important fight on this slate. When you talk about overlooked, you have to think about Jordan Wright. He fights at a high pace and for all the skill he (may) lack he puts a pace on that produces a lot of fantasy points. I really love the chalk Silva play on this slate because he could knock Wright down multiple times (and has the early knockout upside. Wright is the absolute stone cold leverage spot on the whole slate. He would kill off a high owned fighter and win early if he gets there. I like the Silva chalk and will eat this all day.
Silva via KO/TKO
Andre Muniz vs Eryk Anders
Fight Odds: Andre Muniz -145 vs Eryk Anders +120
Odds to finish: TBD
DraftKings: Andre Muniz $8500 vs Eryk Anders $7700
FanDuel: Andre Muniz vs Eryk Anders
Weight Class: W Straw
Muniz has been a monster when the fight hits the ground. He doesn’t have great offensive takedowns (even with those great takedown numbers). Anders is really athletic for his frame and has a great takedown defense at 76%. I expect all the upside in this fight to be in the underdog or a Muniz finish. People won’t be landing on Muniz because he falls in an odd range. Anders is a sneaky underdog play on this slate because he will hit value in a win. I expect him to potentially hurt and keep this fight competitive on the feet.
Muniz via Dec
Miranda Maverick vs Erin Blanchfield
Fight Odds: Miranda Maverick -150 vs Erin Blanchfield +130
Odds to finish: +175
DraftKings: Miranda Maverick $8400 vs Erin Blanchfield $7800
FanDuel: Miranda Maverick vs Erin Blanchfield
Weight Class: W Fly
High level women’s prospects take on each other in this spot. Both ladies have had success with the grappling realm. Maverick is the more physical of the two ladies and I think it would be difficult for Blanchfield to have success with takedowns. It may sound crazy because both have scored tremendously well. When you talk about decent win equity for their dollar I would look at Blanchfield can keep a pace on the feet. I just struggle to see how Maverick will be fantasy relevant without grappling.
Blanchfield via Dec
Alex Perez vs Matt Schnell
Fight Odds: Alex Perez -300 vs Matt Schnell +260
Odds to finish: -105
DraftKings: Alex Perez $9200 vs Matt Schnell $7000
FanDuel: Alex Perez vs Matt Schnell
Weight Class: Fly
PPD
Perez via Dec
Ryan Hall vs Darrick Minner
Fight Odds: Ryan Hall -200 vs Darrick Minner +170
Odds to finish: +105
DraftKings: Ryan Hall $8900 vs Darrick Minner $7300
FanDuel: Ryan Hall vs Darrick Minner
Weight Class: Feather
I’m surprised Hall is back in the octagon after a knockout loss in July. Before that he was fighting once a year. He has the most unique style in all of UFC. Hall has absolutely no pure striking skills. He throws kicks solely. When in trouble he will pull guard or try to roll for a leg. He has legitimate upside in any matchup that he is in. His path to victory is getting a submission and potential grappling. It’s just difficult to target him at a high rate. Minner is nothing special and has a limited path to win this fight. He would be trying to keep it on the keep and close distance. I expect him to get kicked as he moves in. For that I don’t see a tremendous amount to love in this matchup. I am using Hall as a secondary play.
Minner via Dec
Randy Costa vs Tony Kelley
Fight Odds: Randy Costa -200 vs Tony Kelley +170
Odds to finish: -160
DraftKings: Randy Costa $9000 vs Tony Kelley $7200
FanDuel: Randy Costa vs Tony Kelley
Weight Class: Bantam
Randy has been a prototypical finish or be finished style of fighter in his UFC tenure. His fights will absolutely be high value targets. Costa has great first round finishing equity as he pushes forward and looks to use his length. A lot of the metrics are on Costa’s side and that’s why the betting line moved way into his direction. The fight opened with a straight pick’em. Output is everything and Kelley will struggle to keep up. With that being said, Costa does tend to slow down if he doesn’t get a finish. That means Kelley is an elite leverage play on this slate. Kelley could break a slate in his wins. I’m going to target this fight at a high rate with a slight lean to the Costa side because of his stats and first round equity. Kelley really is the most elite leverage on the whole slate due to Costa’s gas tank.
Costa via KO/TKO
Gillian Robertson vs Priscila Cachoeira
Fight Odds: Gillian Robertson -400 vs Priscila Cachoeira +300
Odds to finish: -130
DraftKings: Gillian Robertson $9300 vs Priscila Cachoeira $6900
FanDuel: Gillian Robertson vs Priscila Cachoeira
Weight Class: W Fly
The sneakiest target on the whole slate is buried as the first fight of the night. Robertson is your power wrestler that goes in with a gameplan. She wants to get it on the mat and find a submission. I think she really separates herself through the pack because when she wins it will be a strong takedown score. Cachoeira was taken down 4 times last fight in just 1 round! She was able to take over late and knock out her opponent. I believe that her path is to limit grappling and win a striking affair. Priscila has struggled to stop the takedowns and I think Robertson is the perfect opponent to exploit it.
Robertson via Dec