H3budda's MMA Article
UFC Vegas 50: Santos vs Ankalaev
Remember to read the full breakdown as the highlighted picks don’t always dictate how you should be playing the fight.
(Odds are as of the writing of the article)
Thiago Santos vs Magomed Ankalaev
Fight Odds: Thiago Santos +400 vs Magomed Ankalaev -550
Level of Target High
Weight Class: Light Heavy
It’s rare to see a main event with a -600 favorite. Ankalaev has been on a roll and has a well rounded game. At his price you are going to need him to smash. I’m slightly concerned that there could be lulls in the action. Thiago Santos is a skeleton of his once scary self. When he was in his prime he was a potent striker that could end a fight with any strike. I truly think there is only one possible way for Santos to win and that is by a fluke knockout. Ankalaev has never really been hurt in any of his fights. I like to see that and he should be able to walk through Santos strikes. For fantasy output I think you have to take Magomed in all formats and it’s easy to get to him with so many puntworthy options on this slate. The 5 rounds are really a great floor and ceiling for him. Santos is a pure fade. Can’t back a +450 underdog with any faith.
Ankalaev via KO/TKO
Marlon Moraes vs Song Yadong
Fight Odds: Marlon Moraes vs Song Yadong
Level of Target High
Weight Class: Catch
Marlon Moraes has not looked good at all in any of his last few fights. His durability is a massive question mark. The gas tank dips severely after the first round. If Moraes wins this fight he would be extremely important in this spot. The problem is Yadong has insanely great durability and has the tools to negate any damage coming his way. People are wise to Moraes giving up massive amounts of fantasy points. Yadong has massive upside because of the finish equity. Moraes has shown he can get out of the first so you will need Yadong to take over and get a couple knockdowns to hit the ceiling. It’s just too hard to ignore the durability issues and possible high score Yadong can put up in his wins. Moraes is a crazy YOLO leverage play a crazy person could try to go there.
Yadong via KO/TKO
Sodiq Yusuff vs Alex Caceres
Fight Odds: Sodiq Yusuff vs Alex Caceres
Level of Target Low
Weight Class: Feather
TBD
Yusuff via Dec
Khalil Rountree Jr vs Karl Roberson
Fight Odds: Khalil Rountree Jr vs Karl Roberson
Level of Target Middle-Low
Weight Class: Light Heavy
This fight has tremendous finish equity for the mid range. I think it’s a tricky fight to breakdown because when this one busts it will not be intrical to your lineups. These two guys love to stand and trade heavy strikes. There shouldn’t be any takedowns in this fight. This is one of those fights I would be taking whatever fighter was the underdog. It’s such a close fight that the win equity is the only thing to like in this spot. Robertson is going to need a finish of any kind to even sniff an optimal lineup. The small salary savings you get on Rountree is intriguing enough for me to take a couple shots on him. Overall I am not too interested in this one.
Rountree via Dec
Drew Dober vs Terrance McKinney
Fight Odds: Drew Dober vs Terrance McKinney
Level of Target High
Weight Class: Light
McKinney makes the quick turnaround as a late replacement in this fight. He has nothing to lose as he is moving up the food chain and it’s a great opportunity for him. In all of his fights he is pushing a fast pace and I expect no less here. McKinney will likely want to get a takedown and early finish again. For that he has a massive ceiling in his wins. I think McKinney is going to be extremely popular and owned. Dober has the massive striking advantage and should try to keep it on the feet. When McKinney gasses out Dober will be able to take over. I am actually concerned with Dober’s ceiling if the fight extends. I’m more likely to use McKinney as a GPP upside underdog than I am to play Dober. Drew’s in a difficult tight range.
Dober via KO/TKO
Alex Pereira vs Bruno Silva
Fight Odds: Alex Pereira vs Bruno Silva
Level of Target Alex Pereira vs Bruno Silva
Weight Class: Middle
Alex Pereira is going to have some name value after his flying knee knockout. For fantasy he is only going to be directly related to the finish upside. He is -150 inside the distance! For that reason alone he is a gpp upside play. +150 to win in the first round is really strong as well. My problem with Alex is that when he chooses to kickbox at range his fights will bust. There’s a possible outcome that Solva likes to stay out of trouble and Alex slows the pace down. It is going to be on Silva to mix things up and I am unsure if he will grapple. This is Alex’s fight to lose when it comes to that realm. In a bottle Silva is going to be necessary if he somehow finds a win. I just don’t expect him to land takedowns and really test Alex. Alex is a GPP upside play and will only rely on a knockout for upside.
Pereira via KO/TKO
Matthew Semelsberger vs AJ Fletcher
Fight Odds: Matthew Semelsberger vs AJ Fletcher
Level of Target High
Weight Class: W Straw
Matthew is one of the more overlooked fighters in the UFC and for fantasy. He has volume on the feet and enough wrestling to keep the pace going. Fletcher is a rather untested guy from the regional scene that will need to find success with grappling early. If Fletcher doesn’t get the takedowns I expect Semelsberger to be able to take over and finish Fletcher. This fight is going to be extremely important. Fletcher has a direct path to test Matthew’s takedown defense. I think the experience of Semelsbeger will allow him to take over this fight and score very well. Fletcher is a supreme GPP play because he has no history on the game logs. It’s possible he goes overlooked.
Semelsberger via Dec
JJ Aldrich vs Gillian Robertson
Fight Odds: JJ Aldrich vs Gillian Robertson
Level of Target Middle
Weight Class: W Fly
Robertson is one of the best plays when she’s on a card. When she wins she always scores close to 10x. As always she has grappling upside and late finish potential. Aldrich never scores well in her wins and I have a hard time seeing any finish in this spot. I think that Aldrich is going to struggle in this matchup. I’m crossing her off on this slate. It’s possible that Robertson is going to go overlooked which makes her an extremely strong play. The ceiling is in the two to one odds of her finding a late finish.
Robertson via Dec
Trevin Jones vs Javid Basharat
Fight Odds: Trevin Jones vs Javid Basharat
Level of Target High
Weight Class: Bantam
This is a banger of a fight people could overlook. Basharat is a potent grappler I am always going to want a piece of his fights. It is hard to ignore that last time Jones was taken down and gave up points in bunches. There’s a possible outcome that Jones can get up a couple times and that would do nothing but help Javid’s upside! Jones has the potential in any position to finish. He’s got legitimate upside in his wins. Basharat hasn’t faced a striker as potent as Trevin so there’s a possibility he is outgunned on the feet. Long term I am going to target a guy who shoots takedown after takedown. He’s one of my personal favorite plays on the whole slate. Jones is in an easy leverage spot because he could kill off all the grappling upside.
Basharat via Dec
Damon Jackson vs Kamuela Kirk
Fight Odds: Damon Jackson vs Kamuela Kirk
Level of Target Medium
Weight Class: Feather
Kirk can slow the pace of fights down and that concerns me in this matchup. Jackson’s upside relies on takedown and control time. He isn’t a potent skilled wrestler that can get takedowns at will. When it is on the feet the pace is going to be very slow. For fantasy I think this fight is clearly only on the side of this fight. Jackson is going to score well in his wins due to the grappling. Kirk has the ability to score 50 points in a win. Hard to back him.
Jackson via Dec
Sabina Mazo vs Miranda Maverick
Fight Odds: Sabina Mazo vs Miranda Maverick
Level of Target Medium
Weight Class: W Fly
Striker vs grappler? Maverick will need to go back to grappling to get us to her ceiling. We want to see takedowns at will. Mazo is a decent striker that could have some success on the feet. To mitigate that risk I want Maverick to shoot and get us a massive score. It’s difficult to back Miranda because sometimes she’s willing to stand and trade with her opponent. That will not score well. For the reasons above I think Maverick is a great GPP pivot play off of the studs in her range. Mazo is not much of a play for me because even in a win she may not score well at all!
Maverick via Dec
Dalcha Lungiambula vs Cody Brundage
Fight Odds: Dalcha Lungiambula vs Cody Brundage
Level of Target Medium-High
Weight Class: Middle
Dalcha has had a very interesting UFC run so far. He has scored 65 and 108 in his wins for DFS wins. The problem is his fights slow down the deeper they go. He perhaps has a striking advantage in this matchup. One low percentage outcome is a knockout for Dalcha. The problem is Brundage has good durability and a pretty large grappling advantage. I expect Brundage to have some success shooting takedowns on Dalcha. The pace may slow to a halt on both sides the deeper this goes. There’s some stronger targets that are on this card because of that. I like Brundage as a wrestling upside play. Dalcha is too volatile for me to attack at a high rate.
Brundage via Dec
Kris Moutinho vs Guido Cannetti
Fight Odds: Kris Moutinho vs Guido Cannetti
Level of Target Medium
Weight Class: Bantam
I’ve been waiting for the second UFC fight for Moutinho! He is known as the punching bag for Sean O’Malley. The problem in this one is he is facing a 42yo who has no gas tank. I was really hoping we could target Moutinho in his second UFC matchup. This is a cupcake matchup for Moutinho to stay at distance and win this fight with his striking. Guido doesn’t offer too much after 7.5 minutes in a fight. He can grapple when he wants and the gas tank hurts too much when he does. Crazily enough I like that Guido could grapple here. I’m willing to close my eyes and take some stabs on him in GPP. Moutinho has upside if he can find a finish against Cannetti. We have seen Cannetti finished numerous times in the UFC. Usually it’s power punchers and not volume guys. Both guys are extremely interesting options because of the styles. I like Cannetti because I expect the Moutinho side to be the more popular. It’s a great leverage spot.
Moutinho via Dec
Tafon Nchukwi vs Azamat Murzakanov
Fight Odds: Tafon Nchukwi vs Azamat Murzakanov
Level of Target Medium
Weight Class: Light Heavy
The first fight of the night is extremely interesting for fantasy. Tafon has made the walk int he UFC a few times now. He is going to have to try to close the distance and work in the clinch to have success in the clinch. Problem is Azamat will make him pay as he pushes forward. I think Azamat is the real deal and has fight ending power. If anyone wants to grapple it would be in the Azamat side. People are probably going to overlook this particular fight with it being buried down the card. It could have sneaky upside in the clinch control. Nchukwi is a decent pivot off the obvious underdogs on this slate. Azamat falls in a range where you can go up or down and have better plays on paper.
Murzakanov via Dec