H3budda's MMA Article - UFC 276: Adesanya vs Cannonier

UFC 276: Adesanya vs Cannonier

Remember to read the full breakdown as the highlighted picks don’t always dictate how you should be playing the fight.

(Odds are as of the writing of the article)

Israel Adesanya vs Jared Cannonier

Fight Odds: Israel Adesanya -400 vs Jared Cannonier +300
Level of Target High-Medium (5 Rounds)
Weight Class: Middle

The main event sees Adesanya take on the power striker Cannonier. I hate to put it so bluntly, but Jared’s upside and only true path to win this fight looks to be knocking out Israel. It’s going to be tough to do that because the only man to do it was Alex Peirera (who is on this card). On paper you have 5 rounds to work with in this fight. The pace is very likely to be a chess match on the feet. Adesanya is defensively sound enough to stay out of trouble and only absorbs 2/56 strikes per minute. We haven’t seen Cannonier go 5 rounds and there is a steep concern that he will slow down and lack upside the deeper the fight goes. Jared is certainly not the only finish upside in this spot. Israel is possibly in a late finish spot. He could wear down Jared over 2-4 rounds and find a finish late. For that alone he’s going to be in play in all formats. I do think there’s merit to fading this spot and hope that it goes deep into the fight to kill the upside off.

Adesanya via KO/TKO

Alexander Volkanovski vs Max Holloway

Fight Odds: Alexander Volkanovski -200 vs Max Holloway +170
Level of Target High (5 Rounds)
Weight Class: Welter

The co-main event should be the main event on this slate. I expect it to be another fast paced fight with pretty much the same outcome. It’s 2-0 going into this 3rd fight between Max and Alex. These guys are tremendous strikers and have the ability to put a great pace over 3 rounds. Volkanovski has scored 94.2 and 102.8 points in the first two fights. I don’t see anything that has really changed up to this point. Volkanovski has shown the ability to finish and the inside the distance line is now nearly a pick’em. He’s firmly one of the best plays on the whole slate. Somehow he is priced at just his moneyline price and that provides us a big opportunity to buy into him in this spot. He would be north of $10k on any other slate. Holloway is going to be a popular punt option on this slate. He has scored 53.9 and 42.6 points in the first two fights. In cash games that is a must. In GPP’s you will need to take a side and hope there is a finish to kill the other side off. I’m going to try to beat the field on the Volkanovski side of things. He is an elite player and I’d consider locking him in your player pool. It’s one of those once in a lifetime plays.

Volkanovski via Dec

Sean Strickland vs Alex Pereira

Fight Odds: Sean Strickland -115 vs Alex Pereira -105
Level of Target Medium-High
Weight Class: Heavy

I love this fight for GPP. You have a pure power striker in Alec vs the more well rounded MMA fighter in Sean. Peireira is going to be a massive upside play because he can finish the fight at any moment. Now that Strickland is the moneyline favorite the public might go to him for his win equity. Alex is still favored to win inside the distance so I think he is a great GPP play in your lineups and will kill off a lot of the Strickland backers. Maybe this is the fight we see Sean try to go for the takedowns against the kickboxer. He has a path to win this “easy” because he can take the bigger guy down and limit the power strikes. You are going to have to decide how you handle this one. I think Alex could be lower owned than we all think and he would be the play if that’s how things shake out.

Pereira via Dec

Pedro Munhoz vs Sean O’Malley

Fight Odds: Pedro Munhoz +220 vs Sean O’Malley -260
Level of Target Medium
Weight Class: Bantam

Sean O’Melley is moving up the food chain and faces the tough durable Munhoz. O’Malley has the volume to keep up his scoring high on any slate. My problem is it’s all striking based and finish equity. Munhoz has never been finished in his fight career. I think you are going to see O’Malley go to a decision in this spot. In Munhoz’s prime he had a great front headlock and submission game. At distance he has been striking with heavy leg kicks. It’s going to be damn tough for Pedro to close the distance and stay out of trouble. Overall O’Malley is going to be his usual upside GPP play as he can put a huge pace out on the feet. The strong inside the distance prop also supports him as an upside play. I just hesitate to back that knockout equity because we have never seen Pedro finished before! Munhoz is a going have a path to win by finish and that’s it. He simply can’t win a decision.

O’Malley via KO/TKO

Brad Riddell vs Jalin Turner

Fight Odds: Brad Riddell +100 vs Jalin Turner -120
Level of Target High
Weight Class: Light

Both of these guys have been steadily moving up the food chain and always have action in their fights. Riddell is a kickboxer that pushes a great pace in the octagon. He has been able to break a lot of fighters in the UFC so far. Last time out Brad was knocked out by the other hot commodity in Fiziev. Turner has been able ot use his massive frame to his advantage in his fights and I do think that he will be able to keep Riddell off of him. Turner is a slight value at his price on this slate and presents a lot of upside with his +110 inside the distance line. I’ll always remember seeing him on his back and taken down by far less competition in the UFC. Riddell won’t be grappling first but he could get a couple takedowns and make this interesting. For that I would take a couple shots on Riddell and make Turner the focal point in your builds.

Turner via Sub

Robbie Lawler vs Bryan Barberena

Fight Odds: Robbie Lawler -130 vs Bryan Barberena +110
Level of Target Low
Weight Class: Welter

Barberena is going to be a popular play on this slate because of his moneyline. Both of these guys have not been showing their best self lately. The volume on the feet should go to Bryan. He seems to be more willing to bite down on the mouthpiece and trade for 3 rounds. The Achilles heel (pun intended) has been Barberena’s takedown defense. I really wish we knew Lawler was willing to go for takedowns at will in this spot. He would be a bigger favorite if it was his path to win. He’s more of a brawler at this stage and should be able to keep it competitive on the feet. I see this as a trap spot for most people playing DFS. It should primarily take place on the feet and both guys are around +300 to finish! Barberena is the proper value side of this fight and it makes me want to take a wild shot on Lawler. This should certainly be exciting but I am fading it.

Barberena via Dec

Ian Garry vs Gabe Green

Fight Odds: Ian Garry -165 vs Gabe Green +145
Level of Target Medium
Weight Class: Welter

Ian Garry has been the new Irish prospect everyone has been waiting for. He is a flashy striker that fights very intelligently in the octagon. He doesn’t have much of a wrestling heavy game plan so his path to scoring high will be through a knockout. Gabe Green is at a negative strike differential in the UFC. He gets hit more than he is putting out there. That is not a positive and very concerning in this spot. Gabe is going to have to rely on darting in and out and landing combinations to win this fight. I don’t think he has a big path to grapple in this fight. Garry is going to be an overlooked upside finish play. He could finish at any time and I think he should be a sneaky upside play. Somehow I think the public will organically be playing Gabe because of his price range and perceived veteran prowles.

*Garry via Dec

Jim Miller vs Donald Cerrone

Fight Odds: Jim Miller -210 vs Donald Cerrone +180
Level of Target High
Weight Class: Welter

Cerrone has had two fights fall off against Joe Lauzon and now he finally has a bout which could be his last one. Of course he has not looked great in his recent UFC run. I see this as an old time throwdown for these two. They want to go out with a bang and put on a show. Miller has great first round equity on this slate. We have seen cowboy finished many times in the first and he’s proven to be a slow starter in the octagon. People are overlooking the Cerrons output on the feet. He has 4.43 strikes per minute compared to Jim Miller’s 2.78. This is certainly an important fight to target for the finish equity. I like Miller for pure finish equity and he is certainly a play in this spot. Cerrone is absolutely a fighter who can win a decision and has the abaility to pick it up late in the fight. I may be taking far more shots on Cerrone due to the low ownership and an action fight.

Miller via Dec

Uriah Hall vs Andre Muniz

Fight Odds: Uriah Hall +220 vs Andre Muniz -260
Level of Target Medium-Low
Weight Class: Middle

Andre Muniz has the best inside the distance line on the whole slate. You are going to be paying up for him for that and his path is going to be grappling. We want him to get a quick win or deep into the first round finish. If he is able to get one of those two outcomes he will be paying off his chalky ownerships. Don’t expect him to have big striking totals; all of his fights have been based on ground dominance. Hall has been relatively durable over his career and certainly has power to end a fight. I like backing a guy like Muniz who knows what he needs to stick to his superior BJJ to win fights. He’s also landed 3.6 takedowns per 15 minutes compared to 65% takedown defense for Hall. The leverage you’re going to get on Muniz is Hall by a knockout. Ultimately that is his path to win this fight. Muniz is going to be a strong play based on his metrics and I would be looking at him first in this striking upper tier. Hall is a low percentage leverage punt play.

Muniz via Dec

Jessica Eye vs Maycee Barber

Fight Odds: Jessica Eye +200 vs Maycee Barber -250
Level of Target Low
Weight Class: W Fly

I am interested to see how many people want to take a show on Barber on this particular slate. She’s in a range where she will need to go back to her wrestling or early finish ways. Jessica has been very durable over her long UFC career. Most of them go to a decision so for that I think that this fight really lacks a lot of upside. The fight is -250 to go to a decision and Barber is an astounding +300 to win inside the distance. I don’t see this as a spot where she will be able to land takedowns at will as Eye has good takedown defense. This looks to be a clinch battle or a fight at distance where there are 3 rounds of boxing. Barber does have the outside shot of hurting a veteran in Eye because it seems like her focus is off of MMA at this stage. There’s just not a lot to love from Eye due to her wins being a striking based decision.

Barber via Dec

Brad Tavares vs Driscus Du Plessis

Fight Odds: Brad Tavares +130 vs Driscus Du Plessis -150
Level of Target Medium-High
Weight Class: Middle

Du Plessis is the firm value play on the whole slate. He is -150 and priced as an underdog. Even more impressive is his +115 to win inside the distance as well. The path to beat Brad is to bully him around and keep things competitive on the feet. I expect Du Plessis to be more physically imposing in this spot and be able to hit power shots. I love him in all formats this week. He honestly should be able to pay off this salary easily in his wins. I’ve tried to make a case for Brad in my mind, but Tavares is incredibly difficult to play in this spot as a reverse value. He’s got a very small outside shot of the upset if he can hurt and finish Du Plessis in the first or second round only. This will be a great test for Du Plessis and he should pass with flying colors (as the money movement dictates).

Du Plessis via Dec

Jessica-Rose Clark vs Julija Stoliarenko

Fight Odds: Jessica-Rose Clark -145 vs Julija Stoliarenko +125
Level of Target Low
Weight Class: W Bantam

Ugly women’s MMA kicks off the night with some potential grappling upside. Soliatenko has a better inside the distance line at +325 compared to Clark’s +425! That is showing her path to victory as a low percentage arm bar or triangle from guard. With that being said we think that Clark would be able to get some takedowns in this fight. That’s where the upside lies in this one.
Clark’s 1.77 takedowns per 15 minute fight is not something we can bank on. She has not always fought the best game plan in the world. I expect Clark to be able to pick Julija apart on the feet. Jessica is absolutely a low owned upside play that could go overlooked. Julija is a low percentage submission away from surprising everyone and hitting optimal. There’s some very solid fights to target on this slate and with the uncertainty that there could be some spurts of inactivity it’s firmly a secondary target.

Clark via Dec

UFC 276: Adesanya vs Cannonier

Remember to read the full breakdown as the highlighted picks don’t always dictate how you should be playing the fight.

(Odds are as of the writing of the article)

Israel Adesanya vs Jared Cannonier

Fight Odds: Israel Adesanya -400 vs Jared Cannonier +300
Level of Target High-Medium (5 Rounds)
Weight Class: Middle

About the Author

  • Mike Brown (H3Budda)

  • Mike Brown (H3Budda) is a 15-time qualifier across NFL, MMA, Soccer, and Tennis, as well as a 2-time King of the Beach qualifier. He also qualified for the first ever MMA live final at UFC 205 in NYC.

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