H3budda's MMA Breakdown
UFC Vegas 39: Dern vs Rodriguez
Remember to read the full breakdown as the highlighted picks don’t always dictate how you should be playing the fight.
(Odds are as of the writing of the article)
Mackenzie Dern vs Marina Rodriguez
Fight Odds: Mackenzie Dern vs Marina Rodriguez
Odds to finish: -135
DraftKings: Mackenzie Dern vs Marina Rodriguez
FanDuel: Mackenzie Dern vs Marina Rodriguez
Weight Class: W Straw
A pivotal matchup in the women’s strawweight division sees two fantasy darlings. I really like that Marina has gone 5 rounds and we know what we will get from her side of things. The volume is always there with almost 5 significant strikes per a minute. Her takedown defense is the key to this fight. It’s 62% and she’s been taken down by pure wrestlers. Dern does not have the best aggressive wrestling and her path is to get it there. I am concerned she gets lit up on the feet and slow down the deeper the fight goes. You can’t overlook the finishing equity for Dern. Her BJJ is some of the best in UFC. You’re going to need a piece of this fight and it all depends on how you want to attack things.
Rodriguez via KO/TKO
Randy Brown vs Jared Gooden
*Fight Odds:*Randy Brown vs Jared Gooden
Odds to finish: +100
DraftKings: Randy Brown vs Jared Gooden
FanDuel Randy Brown vs Jared Gooden
Weight Class: Welter
I see a striking affair in this one and one that could bust hard if it goes to a decision. Brown’s price is fringe finish or bust. Yes he has volume out on the feet but I think he will still score relatively poorly without a finish. Gooden has a decent bit of win equity and probably could have the better power shots. I don’t think Gooden can finish Brown and it should stay on the feet. It is a 50/50 fight to finish and for that I am making Brown a secondary play on this slate. You can differentiate with him. Gooden isn’t someone I am jamming in as a value.
Brown via Dec
Tim Elliott vs Matheus Nicolau
Fight Odds: Tim Elliott vs Matheus Nicolau
Odds to finish: +125
DraftKings: Tim Elliott vs Matheus Nicolau
FanDuel: Tim Elliott vs Matheus Nicolau
Weight Class: Fly
This is a really fun flyweight scrap that should produce volume or scrambles. I think it’s pretty foolproof on this slate to play this fight. Elliott’s fights always produce and you will likely need a piece of this. Nicolau has a 100% takedown defense and I think that is incredibly important. I think he has Elliott outgunned on the feet and could hurt Elliot as he is dancing around or trying for takedowns. Elliott historically has scored tremendously well and should garner ownership because of that. I think he is a fringe first tier play. It’s because of his path is still to clinch or control. Nicolau is the A side of this and I think he can go underowned.
Elliott via Dec
Sabina Mazo vs Mariya Agapova
Fight Odds: Sabina Mazo vs Mariya Agapova
Odds to finish: +125
DraftKings: Sabina Mazo vs Mariya Agapova
FanDuel: Sabina Mazo vs Mariya Agapova
Weight Class: W Fly
This is a wildly important fight that is very intriguing. Agapova lost as a near -1200 favorite last time out. She gassed out hard after grappling. She isn’t a historically big grappler. I think she is very outgunned on the feet. Mazo has superior volume. I think you have a safe floor and ceiling with the significant strikes in this fight. Mazo is my pick here because she scores incredibly strong in her wins. What happens if Agapova gasses again? There could be another finish. So Agapova is going to have to prove herself for me to have any sort of confidence. She’s also very hittable.
Mazo via Dec
Phil Hawes vs Deron Winn
Fight Odds: Phil Hawes vs Deron Winn
Odds to finish: +
DraftKings: Phil Hawes vs Deron Winn
FanDuel Phil Hawes vs Deron Winn
Weight Class: Middle
PPD
Hawes via KO/TKO
Chris Gutierrez vs Felipe Colares
Fight Odds: Chris Gutierrez vs Felipe Colares
Odds to finish: -125
DraftKings: Chris Gutierrez vs Felipe Colares
*FanDuel: *Chris Gutierrez vs Felipe Colares
Weight Class: Light
This is another one of those fights
Gutierrez via Dec
*Jamie Pickett vs Laureano Staropoli *
Fight Odds: Jamie Pickett vs Laureano Staropoli
Odds to finish: -265
DraftKings: Jamie Pickett vs Laureano Staropoli
FanDuel: Jamie Pickett vs Laureano Staropoli
Weight Class: Light
TBD
Staropoli via KO/TKO
Alexandr Romanov vs Jared Vanderaa
Fight Odds: Alexandr Romanov vs Jared Vanderaa
Odds to finish: -335
DraftKings: Alexandr Romanov vs Jared Vanderaa
FanDuel: Alexandr Romanov vs Jared Vanderaa
Weight Class: Heavy
TBD
Romanov via KO/TKO
Charles Rosa vs Damon Jackson
Fight Odds: Charles Rosa vs Damon Jackson
Odds to finish: -105
DraftKings: Charles Rosa vs Damon Jackson
FanDuel: Charles Rosa vs Damon Jackson
Weight Class: W Bantam
TBD
Rosa via Dec
Loopy Godinez vs Sam Hughes
Fight Odds: Loopy Godinez vs Sam Hughes
Odds to finish: +100
DraftKings: Loopy Godinez vs Sam Hughes
FanDuel: Loopy Godinez vs Sam Hughes
Weight Class: Light
TBD
Hughes via Dec
Steve Garcia vs Charlie Ontiveros
Fight Odds: Steve Garcia vs Charlie Ontiveros
Odds to finish: -105
DraftKings: Steve Garcia vs Charlie Ontiveros
FanDuel: Steve Garcia vs Charlie Ontiveros
Weight Class: Light
TBD
Garcia via Dec