Hester's College Football Plays: Week 13
This week, we get the biggest college football contest we have ever had, and we should thank FanDuel for taking the chance and running a tournament of this size for us.
I said this a couple of weeks ago when DraftKings ran a big tourney and I will state it again. Anybody who is reading this: please put multiple lineups into this tournament – we are the ones they are running these tournaments for, and the sites are just hoping to break even in these tournaments and keep us niche sport geeks happy.
I am going to focus all my early plays on FanDuel pricing, and the late plays will reflect DraftKings. I think with the big tourney this week, that is the best way to approach our game plan. This is a week that if you want to get various lineups into play with the tournament, I would find that variance in your lineups through the RB and WR position. I think paying top dollar for one or two QBs and finding value at the other positions is the way to go.
With the groundwork of the game-plan now in place, here are the main guys I will be targeting in most of my lineups.
Quarterback
J.T. Barrett (Ohio St) E – Barrett and Mariota are basically the same price and are the two best options by a long shot in the early games. I like Barrett a little better in the tournament, simply because I think he has more upside. Ohio St just doesn’t have nearly the weapons that Oregon does, and the Buckeyes exclusively rely on Barrett. Barrett has back-to-back 40-point performances and has hit that total in three of the last five games. Ohio St has no problem running the score up on anybody and has extra incentive now that they are trying to impress the committee for that last playoff spot.
Marcus Mariota (Oregon) E – Mariota might not have quite the upside that Barrett does, but he is more consistent. If you are looking for 35 points from your QB, Mariota is your man. He has scored over 35 points in six of the last eight games but hasn’t hit 40 in any one of them. That is basically the definition of consistent. If I were to guess, I think Mariota has about a 25-point first half, but I worry about Oregon blowing out Colorado, meaning he’d only have a 5- to 10-point second half. If for some reason you think Colorado can score on the Oregon defense, this is probably the week he finally breaks the 40-point barrier. This guy is a no-brainer pick if you are building cash game lineups.
Joshua Dobbs (Tennessee) L – Dobbs is starting to get expensive, but that is for a good reason. He has given the Volunteer fans something to be hopeful about. The Vols were 0-5 against legitimate opponents this year, but now have won the last two since giving Dobbs the starting job, and they also played Alabama tough in the one game he relieved Nathan Peterman. He has been a true dual-threat QB in the two games he has started, averaging 300 yards passing and 100 yards rushing with nine total TDs. I don’t think we can expect those numbers every week, but he has another favorable matchup coming up against Missouri. He makes a great GPP play and a very good cash game play.
Other Options: Luke Falk (Wahington St), Justin Holman (Central Florida), Dak Prescott (Mississippi St)
Running Back
Melvin Gordon (Wisconsin) E – I really don’t think I need to say much about this guy. If you are reading this article, you obviously know how good Gordon is. Last week he showed us what his upside is with a 400-yard, 4-TD performance. If you are playing multiple lineups, you simply can’t afford to completely fade this guy. He can take you out of having a chance to win any big money if you don’t have some exposure to him. Gordon is expensive, but I have made multiple lineups with him and one of the “big two” QBs in it. You will need to find value if you play him, but there is some out there if you look hard enough.
Nick Wilson (Arizona) E – Wilson should be the lead back this week for Arizona, but you might want to find an update on the status of Jones-Grigsby before you play Wilson in too many of your lineups. His price is simply too cheap if Jones-Grigsby sits this one out completely. Wilson has only been the starter in four games this year but has run for over 100 yards in each game and over 150 yards three times. He also has 29 or more carries in three of those four games. Those factors are just too good to ignore. Wilson brings 30-point upside and a 15-point floor for a reasonable salary.
Javorius Allen (USC) L – Allen has been in a little bit of a slump lately, but that is simply because he hasn’t been getting into the end zone. He was having a great season for the first two months, and I will take the discounted price he has this week and expect the numbers we were seeing at the beginning of the year. USC has been passing the ball more lately, but I think they will lean on their best player this week in a rivalry game against UCLA. Allen doesn’t have a game yet this year with under 100 total yards and has over 40 catches on the year. Those are stats that guarantee a decent game and make him great for cash games.
Other Options: James Conner (Pitt), Justin Jackson (Northwestern), Jay Ajayi (Boise St), Don Jackson (Nevada)
Wide Receiver
Remember, I am spending heavy on QB and RB, so these are plays that I think offer great value, not necessarily the players I think will score the most points
Cayleb Jones (Arizona) E – If we could have gotten Jones for $5700 a couple of weeks ago, we would have jumped all over it. With a couple of bad games from the whole Arizona passing game, his price has dropped significantly. I still believe Arizona has a decent passing offense and Jones is still the #1 guy in that offense. This guy brings some serious upside to the table, but his floor is also pretty low. I love this guy in my GPP lineups, but you may want to think twice about playing him in your cash games.
Tyler Baker (Washington St) E – Baker is a must play if we find out Cracraft is out again this week. He has back-to-back games with nine receptions. Washington St will throw the ball around 60 times again this week, and you always want a guy from this offense, especially if you can get a discount. The Huskies haven’t been good about giving out injury updates the past couple of weeks on Cracraft, so you might have to play him with no update. If we do hear that Cracraft is out and you are playing multiple lineups, I strongly suggest pairing Baker with Falk, as you get a high-upside combo that will allow you the salary relief to get a stud RB.
Victor Bolden (Oregon St) L – Bolden has been getting some serious volume the last three weeks and is horribly underpriced. On a full PPR site, I cannot see any reason not to play this guy in most, if not all, of your lineups. He has not been able to find the end zone much this year and that is what is keeping his salary down. On full PPR sites, I don’t like chasing TDs and will always take the high-volume players over the big-play receivers.
Other Options: Tommy Shuler (Marshall), Cam Worthy (East Carolina), Bud Sasser (Missouri), JuJu Smith (USC)
Tight End
Hunter Henry (Arkansas) E – Henry was supposed to be a good tight end coming into the season. That was until Arkansas did nothing but run the ball the first half of the season. The second half of the season, they have opened up the passing game a little more, and Henry is the #1 threat in the passing offense. He has been averaging about 5 catches for 75 yards for the last four games. He is a nice cash game play, as he has three or more catches in six straight games.
Clive Walford (Miami) L – I usually don’t mention anything but cheap TEs in these columns, but I have noticed a trend in my lineups the last month or so. My highest scoring lineups have come when I paid up at the tight end position. Walford has been putting up decent numbers for a WR lately and he is a TE. The price is still cheap when you compare the output to other positions – we are just so set on value at TE that we overlook the expensive guys. Even if you choose not to go this route in your cash game lineups, I want you just to put one lineup together using an expensive TE and find out if you get the same results I have been getting.
Other Options: Jimmay Mundine (Kansas), Steven Scheu (Vanderbilt)