5 High-Value NCAA Bracket Picks to Separate From the Pack
Editor’s Note: This guest post is from PoolGenius, whose expert bracket picks and tools have helped subscribers win over $2.5 million in prizes since 2017.
Making NCAA Tournament bracket picks is anything but an exact science. If we’re being honest, luck plays a big role in building a winning bracket. But that doesn’t mean you can’t make smarter, more informed picks to maximize your expected value and gain an edge on the competition.
Below, we’ll break down five value-driven bracket picks that can help set you apart in your pool.
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5 NCAA Bracket Picks to Separate From the Pack
All odds to advance and public pick rates are from PoolGenius as of Tuesday, March 18. These numbers may change as more brackets are submitted.
No. 12 Colorado State to the Sweet 16
Odds to advance: 35.7%
Public pick rate: 8.4%
Colorado State is a strong candidate to make it to the second weekend, but the public isn’t clued into that information. Despite checking in as a No. 12 seed, the Rams are favored over No. 5 Memphis. If they win, a second-round matchup against Maryland or Grand Canyon is also winnable.
For larger pools or ones with upset bonuses, Colorado State making the Sweet 16 is a high-upside play.
No. 11 North Carolina or San Diego State to the Sweet 16
Odds to advance: 25.6%
Public pick rate: 10%
At-large play-in teams have a history of outperforming expectations, and the winner of North Carolina vs. San Diego State could continue that trend. Whoever advances will face No. 6 Mississippi, the lowest-rated No. 6 seed in our PoolGenius models, followed by a potential matchup with Iowa State.
Our models favor North Carolina if they win the First Four game, making them the better Sweet 16 pick than if San Diego State was put in that spot.
No. 6 Illinois to the Sweet 16
Odds to advance: 34.1%
Public pick rate: 24.5%
Illinois has been inconsistent but has the talent to make a run. Their First Round matchup against the Texas/Xavier play-in winner is manageable, and in the second round, they’d likely face No. 3 Kentucky, an injury-plagued team our models rate nearly identical to Illinois.
This is a strong bracket pick for pools where you want some differentiation without taking a major risk.
No. 4 Arizona to the Sweet 16
Odds to advance: 62.9%
Public pick rate: 55.5%
Who said you need to get crazy to separate from the pack? That’s something to keep in mind, especially in smaller pools.
Arizona is a favorite to make the Sweet 16, yet the public is picking them at a lower rate than their actual odds suggest. This could be a situation where casual players are overrating Oregon, who is getting picked to advance at a 36% rate despite only having a 27.8% chance in our models.
This is one to monitor—checking pick percentages again on Wednesday could provide more clarity on whether Arizona remains undervalued.
No. 4 Purdue to the Sweet 16
Odds to advance: 51%
Public pick rate: 39.2%
This is another case where playing it safe might actually be the contrarian move. High Point has become a trendy upset pick, but Purdue is still a 7.5-point favorite in sportsbooks. If you’re in a standard or small pool, taking Purdue makes sense.
A second-round matchup would likely be against Clemson, a team that has played well but just lost Dillon Hunter to a broken hand in the ACC Tournament. Clemson struggled without him, making Purdue’s path to the Sweet 16 a bit easier than it might seem at first glance.
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