2024 MLB Home Run Derby Odds, Predictions, and Picks
MLB betting analyst Nick Galaida is back with everything you need to know to bet on the 2024 MLB Home Run Derby odds tonight — Monday, July 15. Don’t live in a state with legal sports betting? Get in on the action by making Home Run Derby fantasy pick’em predictions with our PrizePicks promo code.
2024 Home Run Derby Betting Tips
The MLB Home Run Derby will take place at Globe Life Field in Texas for the first time since the new venue was built, which should lead to an exciting event for fans. This year’s field of eight sluggers is headlined by two-time Derby champion Pete Alonso of the New York Mets. Budding stars Gunnar Henderson and Bobby Witt Jr. bring some young flavor to the mix.
Three years ago, I wrote my first Home Run Derby preview, correctly selecting Pete Alonso (+450) to win the event. Two years ago, I went a perfect 7-for-7 in this article for RotoGrinders, ending with a perfect bracket under the old rules. Last year, we had a strong opening round, but our selections weren’t able to finish the job.
Below, let’s look at the 2024 Home Run Derby odds, followed by some general statistics of interest before diving into our favorite wagers for Monday night’s Home Run Derby.
2024 Home Run Derby Odds & Field
| Player | Odds | Team |
|---|---|---|
| Pete Alonso | +310 | New York Mets |
| Marcell Ozuna | +375 | Atlanta Braves |
| Gunnar Henderson | +450 | Baltimore Orioles |
| Adolis Garcia | +500 | Texas Rangers |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | +500 | Kansas City Royals |
| Teoscar Hernandez | +1200 | Seattle Mariners |
| Jose Ramirez | +1200 | Cleveland Guardians |
| Alec Bohm | +1600 | Philadelphia Phillies |
The MLB Home Run Derby odds referenced herein are courtesy of BetMGM Sportsbook and subject to change.
Park Factors – Globe Life Field
Park factors consistently play a major role in the Home Run Derby. Two years ago in this article, we articulated how Dodger Stadium had played much more homer-friendly to right-handed batters than left-handed batters, which was largely supported throughout the event. Three years ago, both finalists in the Home Run Derby were right-handed batters in a venue that also had significant platoon splits. Similar park factors played a role in this event in Cleveland in 2019 and Petco Park in 2016 as well.
Notably, the only pure left-handed hitter in the 2024 Home Run Derby is Gunnar Henderson, with the switch-hitting Jose Ramirez yet to announce whether he will be swinging from the left or right side of the plate this evening.
It’s worth mentioning that Globe Life Field has played significantly more homer-friendly to left-handed batters this season than to right-handed batters. However, unlike some ballparks that consistently yield stark platoon splits, Globe Life Field hasn’t shown these trends year-over-year.
What have these hitters been up to lately?
Similar to last year, we have provided a look at the 30-day rolling numbers for important metrics such as exit velocity, launch angle, and bat speed for each of tonight’s contests. Said another way, we are examining how hard these hitters have been hitting the baseball and at what angle, compared to the preceding 30 days of action.
Notably, Bobby Witt Jr. has increased his average launch angle by 8.8° across the last month. Though not the end-all-be-all, it’s worth noting that players who have a strong increase in launch angle in their 30-day rolling window heading into this event have had success in the Home Run Derby. Players who are making a concerted effort to hit the ball in the air more frequently is certainly a good thing to take note of when evaluating competitors in this showcase of power.
In the last 30 days, Witt Jr. also ranks 29th out of 215 qualified hitters in bat speed, trailing only Gunnar Henderson (8th) and Pete Alonso (21st) among Derby participants during that stretch. Jose Ramirez is the only player in the field who has displayed worse than league average bat speed across the last month.
Before rushing to fade or tail anyone based on these metrics alone, it is worth mentioning that there are other important factors to consider when looking at tonight’s bracket.
Home Run Derby Opening Round Betting Lines
| Player | Round 1 HR Line |
|---|---|
| Pete Alonso | Over/Under 25.5 Home Runs |
| Marcell Ozuna | Over/Under 24.5 Home Runs |
| Gunnar Henderson | Over/Under 22.5 Home Runs |
| Adolis Garcia | Over/Under 23.5 Home Runs |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | Over/Under 22.5 Home Runs |
| Teoscar Hernandez | Over/Under 20.5 Home Runs |
| Jose Ramirez | Over/Under 19.5 Home Runs |
| Alec Bohm | Over/Under 20.5 Home Runs |
Alonso Over/Under 25.5 Home Runs
In 2019 and 2021, Pete Alonso took 46 swings in the opening round of the Home Run Derby. The new rule changes coming to the Derby in 2024 mean that the number of swings could be lower. Players will now see a maximum of 40 pitches in the timed portion of the opening round, which is likely to result in fewer overall swings, assuming a few takes and a reasonable run in the bonus portion of the round. Alonso has elite bat speed, but his launch angle and hard-hit rates are trending in the wrong direction for this event. It wouldn’t be surprising to see an underwhelming performance.
- PICK: Pete Alonso UNDER 25.5 First Round Total Home Runs (-120)
Garcia Over/Under 23.5 Home Runs
Similar to Alonso, Adolis Garcia is not trending positively at the plate heading into this event. His launch angle across the last 30 days is the 3rd-lowest of any player in this year’s competition. Garcia also doesn’t possess truly elite bat speed, which makes an event like this much easier. Last year, Garcia had only 17 home runs in the opening round in Seattle. He will have home-field advantage this year in Texas, but it probably won’t be enough to overcome a large opening-round number.
- PICK: Adolis Garcia UNDER 23.5 First Round Total Home Runs (-115)
Home Run Derby Finals Prediction
If looking for a longshot this evening, Gunnar Henderson and Bobby Witt Jr. to meet in the Finals could be worth a small stab. Henderson doesn’t have an ideal average launch angle for this contest, but he’s going to be swinging in a ballpark that has been very kind to left-handed hitters in 2024. Henderson also possesses some of the best bat speed in Major League Baseball, ranking 8th-best out of 215 qualified players since June 14.
Witt Jr. is another player with extremely good bat speed, ranking 29th across the last 30 days. Witt Jr. also has the highest launch angle and 3rd-highest barrel% of any participant during the last month. He’s not the biggest guy in the world at only 6’1’’ and185 pounds, but the new rules to make this event less tiring should help even the playing field for him.
- PICK: Bobby Witt and Gunnar Henderson to Make the Final (+1300)
2024 Home Run Derby Winner Prediction
The hometown representative is always worthy of consideration in this event, with the energy of the home ballpark having a very real impact in this contest. However, Garcia doesn’t have great metrics and doesn’t have a strong history in the Home Run Derby, making him a less worthwhile risk at +500 than some of the other players.
Bobby Witt Jr. has some of the quickest hands in all of baseball and has been elevating the ball consistently in recent weeks. His elite bat speed coupled with a bat path that can get the ball in the air will always give a player a chance in this competition. At +500, he’s likely to at least give bettors a good sweat on Monday.
Best of luck to everyone! Enjoy the event and bet responsibly!
Image Credit: Getty Images