CBB Conference Tournaments: Horizon League, Summit League Betting Picks
College basketball’s conference tournament season is officially underway and there is a lot of money to be made over the next 7 days as we approach Selection Sunday and prepare to bet on the 2020 NCAA Tournament. Let’s start by taking a look at betting picks for the Horizon League and Summit League conference tournaments. DraftKings Sportbooks has live odds on every tournament, so we’ll use those odds for the purposes of this article.
Horizon League Tournament Betting Odds
| Team | Odds |
| Wright State | -177 |
| Northern Kentucky | +120 |
| Green Bay | +1500 |
| Illinois Chicago | +2000 |
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The Wright State Raiders -177
Top-seeded Wright State is a heavy favorite at US sports books here despite the fact that they still need to win two games. The Raiders, led by 6’8 Junior Center Loudon Love, won the Horizon League with a 15-3 conference record this year.
According to BPI, they have about an 80% chance to win tonight against UIC, a team they already lost to earlier this season. Even if they win that, they’ll see either Northern Kentucky or Green Bay in the championship game. Depending on who they see, their odds to win that game are right around 62%, so their odds to win two games comes in under 50%. There’s no way you can pay a -177 price tag for a team with a sub-50% chance to win the league.
The Northern Kentucky Norse +120
Northern Kentucky is in the same boat as Wright State; they have a decent shot to win their first game (67%) and a lesser chance to win their second game (~50%). That gives them roughly a 33% chance to win the championship. You’d need at least +200 line on them to be profitable at a 33% winning percentage, so this is a pure stay-away spot at only +120
The Longshots: Green Bay +1500 & Illinois Chicago +2000
Green Bay and UIC are the teams that Vegas expects to get bounced in the first round, and they’ve priced them accordingly at +1500 and +2000, respectively. If there’s a 50% chance Wright State wins and a 33% chance NKU wins, that means we’re looking at a 17% chance one of these two longshots win. That works out to Green Bay having a 10% chance to win and UIC having roughly a 7% shot.
You need +900 odds to pay off a team with a 10% chance of winning and +1400 odds to pay off a team with a 7% chance. Both of the DraftKings lines are bigger than those. I think you can take a flyer on both of these underdogs.
Horizon League Tournament Betting Picks
This is a similar story to a lot of future odds in that they’re trying to sucker you into picking one of the favorites. There is just absolutely no reason to consider doing that today. If you really want to bet on them, wait until the championship and you’ll get just about the same odds they’re at right now.
The value is in the longshots here, and who am I to discriminate when it comes to underdogs? I’ll sprinkle a little on both of these squads and hope somebody pulls the upset tonight.
The Picks: Green Bay +1500 and UIC +2000
Summit League Tournament Betting Odds
| Team | Odds |
| North Dakota State | +125 |
| Oral Roberts | +150 |
| North Dakota | +450 |
| Fort Wayne | +600 |
The North Dakota State Bison +125
This is a weird tournament setup this year in which the top two teams left in the conference are playing each other in the semifinals. It just happened to work out that way after North Dakota and Fort Wayne both pulled off upsets in the quarterfinals, so we need to adjust our mindset here.
This changes our betting perspective a little bit because the odds will drastically improve with a win tonight since the road gets easier as it goes for these squads. Even still, there’s not an edge here. The Bison have a 60% chance to win tonight and then will have roughly a 75% chance to win next round. That gives them a 43% chance to win it all, and they’d need at least a +127 line to pay off at that win percentage. The actual line of +125 is close, and you can take it if you want, but it is more of a gamble than a value play.
The Oral Roberts Golden Eagles +150
This is the same story but an easier decision for me. With a 40% chance to win tonight and a 70% chance to win in round two, they have a sub-30% chance to win it all. They’d need at least +250 odds to be a value play. Don’t touch Oral Roberts here.
The North Dakota Fighting Hawks +450
This is the team that caught my eye in this group. Coming off an upset of South Dakota, the Fighting Hawks find themselves as a 2-point favorite with a 67% chance to go to the championship game. If they get past Fort Wayne tonight, they’ll have about a 30% chance to win it all depending on who they play.
A 67% chance to win tonight and a 30% chance to pull an upset in the championship gives this team a 20% chance to take home the Summit League title. They’d only need +400 odds to pay that off, and they’re available here at +450. I think North Dakota is a very solid value play.
The Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodons +600
The Mastodons are fired up after upsetting South Dakota State in the quarterfinals, but BPI still only gives them a sub-9% chance to win this tournament. They’d need a much bigger line to be a value play here.
Summit League Tournament Betting Picks
The favorites will square off tonight and the most likely scenario is that the winner of that game will go on to win the championship. Even still, the odds are not good enough to bet on either of them.
The only value play here is North Dakota. Led by Senior guard Marlon Stewart (18.9 ppg), the Fighting Hawks should expect to knock off Fort Wayne tonight to get a trip to the championship game. They’ll be underdogs in that game, but at +450 they’re a solid bet to win it all.
The Pick: North Dakota +450
Check out more NCAA basketball betting tips as we get closer to March Madness.
Image Credit: USA Today Sports Images