How to Project WRs for Week 13

by Cameron MacMillan (Cameron) Last Updated 2014-10-14 14:03:20

How to Project WRs for Week 13

Last week I did a piece covering How to Project RBs. This week it’s time to cover the more notoriously egotistic, offensive threat: the Wide Receiver. Most of the projecting RBs piece outlined using regularly provided NFL Stats to calculate and use a player’s POW and GLP to project their production week-by-week. While the process differs slightly for Wide Receivers, the same concepts are utilized.

Percentage of Workload – (POW = Targets Per Game/QB’s Attempts Per Game) – For Running Backs it was Attempts per game, for Wide Receivers most use receptions or targets, I use both. The NFL.com stats only include Receptions for Wide Receivers, which is accurate, but most fantasy statisticians will tell you that Attempts Per Game is the real stat to use. RotoGrinders will be providing these stats for you in the near future, but in the meantime, here is a link to easily view WRs sorted by Targets. A top RB will get many more touches per game (often around 20) than a top WR (often around 6). This makes an WR’s output much more inconsistent, in general, than RBs from week-to-week by using receptions. Also noteworthy, is that a WR can not start a game or be the #1 target and still be productive, whereas that’s rarely the case for an RB. To make it as accurate as possible, I use Targets PLUS Receptions for WRs. This will most accurately project a players opportunity to produce in their given system. A higher POW often means a player’s ceiling is higher, because they will have more opportunities to produce. You then use their QBs Attemps + Completions per game for the denominator. Below are the Top 10 WRs so far this season by Targets + Receptions Per Game (I left Andre Johnson in for fun, to see how close the projections will come).

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Red-Zone Power – This is the same measure as Goal-Line Power (GLP) for RBs, but for WRs it is more aptly named End-Zone Power since it is more difficult to estimate a WRs value in the Red-Zone since RBs tend to dominate within the when close to the goal line. Instead of calculating this as we did for RBs, we will use Red-Zone targets and TDs to estimate a WRs Red-Zone Power in the table below (RedZone Targets can be found here and you can use their QBs TDs thrown for Team’s total Rec. TDs ):

(RedZone Targets / Avg. Red Zone Targets Per WR) * (Total Rec. TDs / Team’s Total Rec. TDs)

This represents an WRs knack for finding the end-zone in their current offensive system, compared to the field. In this case, WR Average will be calculated from the pool of the top 50 WRs, which makes the RedZone Targets average 11.76. When doing this on your own, you’ll want to use the field-size from which you would readily roster players from to calculate any averages. For example, in this article I’m going to project the Top 10 WRs by Targets Per Game, from a selectable field of 50 that I would actually choose. Head over to the Forums to talk some strategy about Week 13 lineups, I’ll post my full projections there shortly. Doing the math gives us the following for POW and RZP:

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POW and RZP

• #7 ranked (in Tar+Rec. PG) Hakeem Nicks is out this week with injury, so he was omitted from projections

Defensive Matchups and Initial Projections

You don’t hear the names Darrelle Revis and Nnamdi Asomugha mentioned weekly for no reason; the secondary and linebackers of opposing teams has a huge affect on the outcome of WRs productions. Since, in the fantasy sports world, defenders come lumped in as one-unit, it’s easier to pull their stats. Each week, I like to take a look at NFL.com’s Stats to work the defensive Rushing/Passing numbers into my projections. Once we have all of the stats from defense to formulate our Passing Projections per player by:

• Use Each WRs per game average, assuming Non-PPR. If you can’t find these, you can calculate manually by using 1 pt. per 10 Yards, and 6 pt. per receiving TD (column included for per game receptions so you can adjust manually). This makes up the first score to average.

• Separately, use the yardage and TDs allowed per game by their opponent, and apply those numbers to the player’s POW and RZP factors to determine their projection based on the matchup. This step involves dividing the Pass yards Allowed per game by 10 to account for fantasy points from the NFL Defensive Stats you use, and multiplying touchdowns by 6. This makes up the second score to average.

(POW x Def. Yards Alwd / 10) + (RZP x Def. TDs Alwd x 6) = Projection

• Then evenly average the outcome of the two scores above in order to get our WR’s projections for the week.

Season Average and Factoring in Defense

Using Week 13 Opponents’ Stats found here.

Other Factors

Before making the projections final, there are ‘Other Factors’ I like to cover:

• PPR and Receiving – If you are playing a site that is PPR or 0.5 PPR, use the stat sheet to adjust accordingly, by using the above WRs Receptions Per Game Averages.

• Injuries and Adjustments – This week Brandon Marshall is questionable, and this might effect his play, so feel free to dock him a point or two if he does suit up. Also, be sure to take note of any injuries to your player’s Offensive Line/Quarterback, and adjust accordingly.

• Team’s Ability – Check the points spread on these games. If your WR’s team is favored by a lot, notch his value down, because they will likely be running the clock out by running the ball late in the game. If your WR’s team is favored to lose by a lot, notch his value up, because his team will likely be airing it out to catch up.

• Unlike Running Backs who often catch the ball, receivers rarely rush for yards, so it is generally safe to omit the rushing stats from most players. However, it is still smartest to combine your Receiving Projections and Rushing Projections together at the end to formulate the most accurate projection possible.