Colts vs. Vikings Odds, Picks, and Prediction
Colts vs. Vikings Odds
| Colts Odds | +4 |
| Vikings Odds | -4 |
| Over/Under | 48.5 |
| Date | Sat, Dec. 17 |
| Time | 1:00 p.m. |
| TV | NFL Network |
In Week 15, football fans will be treated to an exciting three-game slate of action on Saturday, beginning with the Indianapolis Colts against the Minnesota Vikings at 1:00 pm on NFL Network. Entering play, Indianapolis has lost six of their last seven games and is on the verge of being mathematically eliminated from the postseason. Last weekend, Minnesota squandered an opportunity to lock-up the NFC South division title against the Detroit Lions, but they still hold a four-game lead in the division and can clinch a playoff berth with one more victory. In this matchup, oddsmakers are expecting a tight battle between these two teams, pricing the Vikings as 4-point home favorites on the spread.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where NFL bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
Indianapolis Colts
During Indianapolis’ recent seven-game slide, only the Houston Texans rank worse in offensive EPA/play overall, and no team has been worse than the Colts in Dropback EPA/play. Since Matt Ryan was reinserted as the team’s starting quarterback, Indianapolis is 1-3, and the offense enters play having scored fewer than 20 points in three consecutive contests. Incredibly, wide receiver Michael Pittman still ranks 8th among all pass-catchers in receptions this fall, despite playing in one of the worst passing offenses in the entire league. Facing an exploitable Minnesota secondary unit, he could have a major impact on the outcome of this affair.
Per James Boyd, cornerbacks Brandon Facyson and Kenny Moore II were both non-participants in Wednesday’s practice. Facyson and Moore II have both struggled in 2022, but their absence would force players who are even further down the depth chart into expanded roles – a potential problem for a secondary unit that has been the strongest component of this Indianapolis defense during their struggles since Week 7. Across their last seven games, the Colts’ defense ranks 7th in overall EPA/play, but their success has been largely driven by their ability to slow opponent’s passing attacks, ranking 8th in Dropback EPA/play in that span. During that same time period, the Colts have been mediocre against the run, ranking 13th in Rush EPA/play.
Minnesota Vikings
Though Minnesota is tied for the second-best record in the entire NFL, their advanced metrics paint a less impressive picture. Through 13 games, the Vikings rank 18th in offensive EPA/play and their offensive line ranks 24th in pass-blocking as a unit, per Pro Football Focus. In last week’s loss against the Detroit Lions, their run-blocking was also poor. In that game, the Vikings running backs averaged -0.53 yards before contact, meaning that Dalvin Cook and Alexander Mattison were frequently being hit behind the line of scrimmage by defenders. Per The Athletic, Minnesota is averaging only 3.1 yards-per-carry since Week 11, and their 22.4% success rate over that span is tied with the Denver Broncos for the worst in football. Yet, there is reason for this group to be optimistic that better days are ahead, with premier left tackle Christian Darrisaw poised to return to the field in Week 15. Per Alec Lewis, the Vikings are averaging 4.8 yards-per-carry and 1.4 yards-before-contact with Darrisaw on the field in 2022, compared to 2.9 yards-per-carry and 0.7 yards-before-contact with him on the sidelines. Expect the Vikings to perform much better offensively this Sunday than they have in Darrisaw’s absence.
Following last week’s loss, Head Coach Kevin O’Connell commented that additional blitz packages are on the table for this weekend’s game. Last year, Minnesota blitzed at the 10th-highest rate of any defense in the NFL, but they have only sent five or more pass rushers on 105 snaps this season, which ranks 22nd in the league, per Alec Lewis. Combining the fact that the Vikings will reportedly be playing tighter coverage with the fact that Matt Ryan ranks 54th among all quarterbacks this year in passing grade against the blitz, it seems extraordinarily prudent for Minnesota to make an effort to alter this area of their defensive gameplan. The Vikings certainly have the personnel to get after the quarterback, with edge rusher Za’Darius Smith leading the league in pressure rate, in addition to Danielle Hunter having accrued seven sacks this year. It is worth noting that both Hunter and cornerback Cam Dantzler have been dealing with injuries this week at practice. Defensive lineman Harrison Phillips was also limited on Wednesday with a back injury.
Colts vs. Vikings – Picks & Predictions
It is always risky business placing wagers on NFL games before seeing the final injury report, but there appears to be a clear emphasis from the Minnesota locker room on fixing a couple of obvious issues on the defensive side of the ball this weekend. Facing an Indianapolis offense that has struggled mightily with the 37 year old Matt Ryan under center this year, the Vikings are in a good position to turn in a much better defensive outing than they have delivered in recent weeks. Buy a half-point on the total to secure push-potential on the key number of 49, and take the under in this spot.
PICK: Under 49 (-115, MGM)
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