Inside the Matchup Matrix: Week 6

Kevin Cole goes inside the numbers to identify attackable and avoidable DFS matchups. He brings a scientific approach coupled with years of NFL knowledge to the table in identifying noteworthy situations on a weekly basis.

Week 6

This is the Matchup Matrix, where I simulate every game on the main Sunday slate in order to find stacks with the highest upside. You can find last week’s results here.

Last week this article was able to highlight two of the best stacking teams, even if we didn’t have the exact receiver combinations. Packers stacks were featured across the board, and the proper WR selections with Aaron Rodgers would have been very successful.

In my Find Your Edge article from Week 1, I went through the last two years’ worth of DraftKings tournament contest results and identified a number of stacks that tournament winners (top-0.1% of entries) are using more than the field.

Three of the commonly rostered stacks with the greatest leverage, or winner usage over the field, were QB/WR, QB/WR/TE and QB/WR/WR. Those are the stacks I’m focusing on in my simulations.

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About the Author

  • Kevin Cole (colekev)

  • Kevin Cole previously worked on Wall Street as an equity and credit analyst before transitioning to data-related sports analysis. For a number of years, Kevin has specialized in creating predictive sports models that includes published work at Pro Football Focus, Rotoworld, numberFire, and RotoViz. He is now the Director of Data and Analytics at RotoGrinders.

Comments

  • gswenson0607

    Extremely helpful article as always Kevin. Im curious as to what your thoughts are/what the data says in regards to 4-man stacks. I find myself firing up 4-mans with SD and LAR due to the high red zone equity of Gordon and Gurley.

  • Awkoutroubis

    Is Darnold naked viable in GPP?

  • Wrecko

    Hey Kevin – I may have missed this bit of info in your other articles but I am trying to figure out the ceiling numbers and how they are developed. Thanks.

  • CptheBreeze

    This article is just another example of why RotoGrinders is an essential tool for DFS players to have. Thanks to you and the rest of the RG staff.

  • colekev

    @Wrecko said...

    Hey Kevin – I may have missed this bit of info in your other articles but I am trying to figure out the ceiling numbers and how they are developed. Thanks.

    I use a nearest neighbor algorithm to match the current offensive stacks to historical, grab the 100 most similar and then calculate the ceilings based on 97th percentile outcomes.

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