It's Still MLB - And It's Frigid!
It has been absolutely frigid.
Okay, well, yeah. That’s not entirely true. I guess I should say it has felt absolutely frigid.
“But…Jordan, aren’t you in Thailand right now? Isn’t it, like, 85 degrees with super high humidity every single day?”
Yes, it is – and that’s exactly my point.
You see, during the summer, my wife and I usually keep our house (back in the good old U.S of A.) at 74 degrees during the daytime, and at 68 degrees while we sleep. Sometimes, we bump it down a bit lower than that during the daytime (we do both work from home, after all; 74 sometimes starts to feel a bit sweaty), and we may even knock it lower than 68 on occasion at night. Oh – and fans. We both sleep with fans.
Most of us are probably similar in this way – right? (Or, as Pablo Escobar would say on ‘Narcos’: “Si or no?”) Most of us probably enjoy keeping the temperature a bit cool when we sleep; it is nice, after all, to bundle up in bed. It is nice to have to wrap up tightly and feel the cold on our face as our body becomes toasty. (Heck, little-known fact about me: I sleep in a sleeping bag most nights. I kid you not – a flannel-lined, L.L. Bean sleeping bag; talk about “warm and toasty while the cold hits my face”!) Honestly, I was a bit concerned when coming to Thailand that this might be a problem. I was concerned that we might be hot at night.
It turns out, that hasn’t been an issue at all.
It turns out, the air conditioning in our villa works just fine.
It turns out, in fact, that it has been (ahem – has felt) absolutely frigid.
During our first week here, we kept the room at 20 degrees Celsius. That’s exactly 68 degrees back home – which should have been perfect. It was perfect, actually… for the first few nights.
One night, though, I was up at three in the morning (yeah – playing MLB DFS each day has put me on an interesting schedule; “three in the morning” here is “three hours before games start” back home), and I noticed that my wife had added an extra blanket to herself during the night, and was curled up like Buster Bluth about to be attacked by a bear. And I realized: I had been cold during the night as well.
That next night, we bumped the temperature in the room up to 21 Celsius.
The night after that, we bumped the temperature in the room up to 22 Celsius. We also turned off the ceiling fan.
Right now, my wife is working next to me in bed with a blanket wrapped around her legs. The ceiling fan is still off. The thermostat is set at 24. Yeah – that’s over 75 degrees back home. That’s hotter than we keep our house during the daytime in the States. That’s what we have been sleeping in the last few nights over here.
You know what’s craziest of all? Last night, the room felt absolutely frigid. I wrapped the sheet around me and put a pillow on top of me and longed for the comfort and warmth of my sleeping bag back home.
Unless a prank is being played on us, I can only surmise that our bodies have so fully adjusted to the hours by the pool and on the beach at “85 and wicked humid” that “75 with no ceiling fan” feels a whole lot colder than “75 with no ceiling fan” would feel at home.
It’s funny, also, how the humidity makes such a difference. On our flight over here, we had a 20-hour layover in Abu Dhabi. We spent the evening hanging out at a beach on the Persian Gulf in 115-degree weather that really didn’t feel too bad. Triple-digits in the desert, after all, feels quite different from “85 and wicked humid.” Temperature is not the only thing that matters, you see? Humidity matters too.
There is one other element of weather that really matters (besides precipitation, of course – but I’m aiming to avoid going outside in precipitation in the first place), and that is wind.
I remember my first time returning to Boston, a couple years after my family moved to Tulsa when I was in high school. Tulsa, si or no? Oklahoma, si or no? Those winters should be cake for someone who grew up in New England…si or no?
Um, no.
One word: Wind.
The winters last longer in New England. The winters bring more snow, and are technically colder. But that wind in Tulsa. Man, that wind! I remember walking around downtown Boston in a t-shirt and jeans and realizing it was 32 degrees outside…and realizing I really did not feel cold at all. Yes, the wind can really make that much of a difference.
Oh, hey there. You’re still reading? You’re wondering where all this is going when we are supposed to be talking about Major League Baseball and Daily Fantasy Sports? You’re wondering what temperature, humidity, and wind have to do with anything at all?
No, I guess you’re not – not anymore, not after I put it like that. After all: we all know (or should know) that temperature, humidity, and wind can sometimes make all the difference in the world in MLB DFS.
If you have read Jonathan Bales’ “Fantasy Baseball for Smart People” book (and if you are still around the MLB DFS scene this late into the season, there’s a good chance you have read that book), you know that there is a lot of great data in there regarding the effects of weather.
You know that the ball travels farther in hot weather; you know, in fact, that games played in 90-plus degree weather see a massive 38% increase in home runs over games played in 50-59 degree weather.
You also know that the ball travels farther in humid air.
Oh, and you know that wind at a pitcher’s back helps the pitcher, and wind blowing against the pitcher (and out toward the outfield) helps the hitter.
Because you probably read that book way back in April or May, however, you may not be actively thinking of those elements right now. And this is exactly why I am bringing up these elements in this article!
Over the last few weeks of the Major League Baseball season, we see some of our greatest gaps in weather impacts. Games in the upper midwest and in the northeast begin to see colder temperatures. Games in the south continue to remain warm. Furthermore, we start to see things changing in wind and in humidity around this time of year. Frankly, just in general, we start to see weather play a much greater role in the direction a slate of games is likely to go than we see at any other point in the season.
Obviously, by this point in the year, you already have your research strategy in place. This deep into the season, you know the things you like to look for and the things you are fine to ignore. We are over five months into the MLB season, and we have less than one month remaining; I understand, you are not going to suddenly overhaul what you are doing or what you are paying attention to or how you are weighing various elements in your research process.
And honestly, that’s fine.
But I want to encourage you over these last four weeks of the MLB season: Pay closer attention to weather!
As people continue to load up on hitters in those 40-degree games, check to see if there is an equally solid matchup for hitters at warmer temps.
As humidity drops in one locale, ask yourself if there is a better place where you can take advantage of the distance the ball is likely to travel somewhere else.
And as wind becomes more volatile, start paying attention! You just may be able to gain a small edge on your competition – and oftentimes, a small edge is all you need in order to chase down victory.
As always: ballpark still matters, matchup still matters, and the talent of the hitters themselves matters – but pay attention to weather. It matters, too.
Don’t believe me? Heck, just ask my wife! It’s over 75 degrees in here, and she looks like she’s about to take a trek through an Eskimo village.
Or, since you can’t really ask my wife (I mean…I guess you could – if you were so inclined, and if you happen to be one of the 75,000 people who follow her photography on Instagram at abby_tohline – and I wouldn’t mind if you did ask her, but she might be a bit confused, so let’s just say it’s really not worth the effort to ask her), you could also just look at these statistics (which come from Baseball Reference, and have been borrowed from an article on Beyond The Box Score).
Over a 20+ year sample size, this is what ISO looks like as temperatures change:
Under 40 degrees: .132
40-49 degrees: .134
50-59 degrees: .140
60-69 degrees: .143
70-79 degrees: .151
80-89 degrees: .159
90+ degrees: .169
That is a massive jump in ISO. That’s not all, though; since ISO is directly related to batting average (ISO = slugging percentage – batting average), let’s see if there is a temperature-related change in batting average as well:
Under 40 degrees: .251
40-49 degrees: .255
50-59 degrees: .255
60-69 degrees: .257
70-79 degrees: .264
80-89 degrees: .269
90+ degrees: .277
Wow! You see that? Not only do extra base hits rise with rising temperatures, but batting average rises as well. And if you wanted to keep things simple, we could even just look at “home runs per at bat.” You ready for this one?
Under 40 degrees: .023
40-49 degrees: .024
50-59 degrees: .026
60-69 degrees: .028
70-79 degrees: .030
80-89 degrees: .032
90+ degrees: .034
So, ask my wife. Or ask the numbers. Or try it and find out for yourself. But whatever way you cut it: Weather matters! And as you start paying closer attention to weather during the last month of the season than your competition is bothering to pay attention, you’ll discover this truth for yourself, and you’ll gain that small edge that may ultimately end up making all the difference in the world.