Jazz vs. Pelicans NBA Betting Preview: Odds, Picks, & Predictions
After 140 days the NBA makes its long-awaited return Thursday night, as the Utah Jazz and New Orleans Pelicans tip-off the restart of the season at 6:30 PM ET on TNT. Will Zion Williamson, reportedly a game-time decision, be ready to go for the Pelicans’ playoff push? More importantly, what should sports bettors make of his status when it comes to NBA odds at online sportsbooks?
NBA Odds: Utah Jazz vs. New Orleans Pelicans
The Pelicans originally opened as 1-point underdogs at online sportsbooks over a month ago but have since moved to as large as 3-points favorites. With bets on the spread split nearly 50-50 between the two teams, per Scores And Odds, the Pelicans are 2.5-point favorites as of Thursday morning. There has been significant movement on the total as 83% of bets have poured in on the Over after opening 220.5. The total reached a peak of 227 Wednesday afternoon but currently sits at 225.5.
The major storyline for bettors is the status of Zion Williamson. Williamson is a game-time decision ahead of Thursday night’s restart. It’s nothing too serious, but after the long break, the rookie was away from his team for 12 days due to a personal matter and an NBA-required four-day quarantine, leaving questions regarding whether he is in “basketball shape.”
The Pelicans were cautious with their No. 1 overall pick for much of the year, and reasonably so. Williamson didn’t make his NBA debut until January 22, and he was subsequently on a minutes restriction once he was ready to play. But even during his minutes restriction, Williamson’s presence made an immediate impact on the court.
Averaging 23.6 points per game and 7 rebounds, Williamson gained major ground in the Rookie of the Year race, though Ja Morant, the favorite, locked it up thanks to the abbreviated season.
The Pelicans started the season 6-22 but have inched their way into the NBA playoff conversation with an assist from the slightly altered format. Those who have bet on the Pelicans since Zion’s debut have fared handsomely from the rookie’s arrival, too. The Pelicans are 8-3 ATS once giving Zion the greenlight.
Is Zion’s Questionable Status a Smokescreen?
So, with all of that said, what do we make of Zion’s status for Thursday night against the Utah Jazz? Might it all be a smokescreen? I thinks that’s a plausible explanation.
First, Only 3.5 games back from the No. 8-seed Memphis Grizzlies, the Pelicans are playing to make the playoffs. Secondly, during the basketball hiatus pictures seemed to show that Zion was in as good of shape as he’s been in all season. In fact, many people, including myself, suspected the break would benefit the Pelicans by giving him some additional time to condition. Despite the issues that kept Williamson away from his team for nearly half of July, I expect him to be close to as good shape as he was the last time we saw him in a regular-season game, and the pressure and incentives to unleash him tonight will be immense.
This is certainly speculation, and our own NBA DFS analyst Andy Means, a much sharper basketball mind than I, disagrees.
Jazz Missing Bogan Bogdanovic
The current No.4-seed Utah Jazz have bigger concerns, though less urgent than the Pelicans’, when it comes to their personnel. While Rudy Gobert was able to mend his relationship with Donovan Mitchell and other teammates after carelessly spreading Covid-19 in the Jazz locker room, they will be without Bojan Bogdanovic after the big man underwent season-ending wrist surgery in May. It’s a significant loss, as Bogdanovic was second on the team in usage during the regular season (25.6%) as well as scoring (20.2 ppg).
Jazz vs. Pelicans Betting Picks and Props
I bet on the Pelicans -1 earlier this month, but if I were making a play on the spread or moneyline today, it would be Pelicans ML -130 at PointsBet with the presumption that Zion is ready to go.
When it comes to the Over/Under I like Under 225 at DraftKings. The Pelicans played at one of the fastest paces in the league pre-bubble, but I think these early games will be sloppier than oddsmakers are taking into account. The Utah Jazz have seeding to worry about but its importance has been diminished since there’s no home-court advantage at Disney World. The Jazz also need to adjust to a new starting lineup without Bogdanovic, who only missed one game up to this point.
Additonally, there’s a player prop I want to attack. Jordan Clarkson should have an increased role in this lineup. I’m betting Clarkson Over 15.5 points at FanDuel.
NBA Picks
Pelicans ML -130, risking 1.3 units to win 1 at PointsBet
Under 225, risking 1.09 units to win 1 at DraftKings
Clarkson Over 15.5 points, risking .20 units to win .20
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