Jets vs. Bills Showdown NFL DFS Lineup Advice for DraftKings & FanDuel
It felt good to have a full day of NFL football back in our lives yesterday, and we end our football week with Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills traveling to New Jersey to take on the Jets. This should be an entertaining matchup between two of the premier QBs in the league, and I’m here with some quick lineup advice on how to get an edge on the field in our FanDuel and DraftKings single-game DFS entries.
The Bills are currently favored by 2 points on the road in this matchup that has a game total of 45 points, and as reluctant as I am to feel strongly about road favorites, I’m surprised this line isn’t wider in favor of the Bills. I’m not as high as most people on the Jets offense this season, and I think the Bills could run away with this game. It’s been a while since I went out of my way to target an Aaron Rodgers offense, and this Jets team reminds me of the unsuccessful Lakers teams that surround LeBron with his favorite hand-picked past-their-prime veterans.
Jets vs. Bills Showdown DFS Lineup Advice
How I Plan to Beat the Field
A critical strategic edge for single-game contests on both FanDuel and DraftKings is getting as different as we can with our lineups to avoid duplication while still playing a reasonably-projected lineup that tells a plausible game story. The most popular CPT/MVP for this game is sure to be Josh Allen, as he’s the favored QB and can put up points both through the air and on the ground, and the next highly-owned choice will be to pair Allen with his favorite WR Stefon Diggs.
If I’m starting a roster with those players, I’ll look to go a bit off the board with the remaining spots on my roster to limit the number of identical rosters and maximize my return if that roster is a winning one. There are several peripheral pieces on offense for both teams that could find their way on to a winning lineup. Pivoting from Gabriel Davis to Deonte Harty or Khalil Shakir, from James Cook to Damien Harris, or from Tyler Conklin to C.J. Uzomah could differentiate your rosters and even help leave some salary on the table.
Another edge that could be especially important in this game, where we have limited injury questions and some familiarity with both offenses, is to make sure our lineup construction makes sense for the players in our lineup. With Aaron Rodgers carrying limited rushing upside, if I’m using him in a roster at the MVP or CPT spot it makes sense to pair him with multiple receivers from the Jets. If Rodgers is having a strong enough game to elevate him to the top spot despite his higher salary, it makes sense that he’ll be throwing TDs to multiple receivers – otherwise one of his receivers would be in the MVP or CPT spot in Rodgers’ place.
There was also some uncertainty surrounding the Jets backfield when pricing was set for this contest, and that is reflected in both Jets RBs having elevated starting-level prices. The most recent word is that Dalvin Cook should lead the team in RB touches while Breece Hall continues to work back from injury, both it is difficult to see both Jets RBs on the same winning lineup at their higher prices (unless possibly in a dominant Jets win that is more likely to bring along the Jets Defense on that roster over Aaron Rodgers or his receivers).
Single-Game Rule I’m Willing to Break
Speaking of lineup construction, while we’ll want to set some rules in LineupHQ if we’re building multiple lineups, setting our rules too strictly can prevent us from getting to unique lineups. Each week I’ll aim to hit on a “rule that can be broken” for our lineups.
This week, I’m willing to go much further down the salary list to pick CPT and MVP choices than I would on the normal single-game lineup. Sometimes running optimal projections will lead to lowly-projected and low upside (but very cheap) options appearing in the CPT or MVP spots on our rosters. Most weeks, we’d be better off removing those options from our player pool due to the low chances of that being a winning roster. This week however – particularly on DraftKings – I’m willing to pick some of those much cheaper options. Deonte Harty is a field-stretching receiver lower down in the salary list that is projected for only a couple of catches – however, he has the upside to turn those long gains into the big points we’d like to see from our top spot.
Similarly on FanDuel, with no salary multiplier, I’m more reluctant to go past the first few projected players for the MVP spot. This week however, the RBs have some appeal as MVP choices that could keep the higher-projected QBs and WRs from reaching the top spot. If Damien Harris or Breece Hall surprise with multiple TDs in this game (when we’re still not exactly sure how the backfield usage will break down for each team) they would be a plausible path to a unique winning lineup.
DraftKings Strategy
The first key difference between DraftKings versus FanDuel is the salary multiplier for the Captain position. It’s not just that a Captain’s fantasy points get the 1.5x multiplier, but his salary counts 1.5x against our cap as well. The next important consideration is the difference in the scoring rules. DraftKings gives a full point per reception instead of a half point on FanDuel, making receivers and pass-catching running backs ideal for the DraftKings format.
With so many appealing (but expensive) receiver options in a full PPR format, Two players I’m likely to be heavier on for the DraftKings are Deonte Harty on the Bills and C.J. Uzomah on the Jets. With both players coming in under $1000 on DraftKings, if either has a TD reception along with some yardage they could very well be the key to fitting in the receptions of Stefon Diggs or Garrett Wilson along with their QBs on the same roster.
FanDuel Strategy
The flip side to the DraftKings scoring is the half-point awarded for receptions on FanDuel and no salary multiplier in the MVP position. This can make it very difficult to get away from the highest projected player at the MVP spot but makes it critical to have some intelligent differentiation in the AnyFLEX spots.
With the difficulty of getting different with our rosters on FanDuel, I’ll be looking to take advantage of the backfield uncertainty to get some unique lineups. The reports leading up to this game indicate that Dalvin Cook and James Cook will be leading the backfields for each team, but I’ll be aiming to get over the field on Breece Hall and Damien Harris. I’ll also look to be over the field on the RB position in general in the MVP spot when I’m not using Josh Allen or Aarond Rogers in that position.
We have one last game in our football week and it should be a good one with a matchup of Josh Allen against Aaron Rodgers. Good luck to everyone tonight!