NFL DFS Showdown Lineup Optimizer Values: DraftKings Picks for Jets-Bills
NFL Showdown season continues with the Jets vs. Bills on Monday Night Football. Our expert analysts are breaking down Draftkings Showdown picks with our in-house NFL DFS lineup optimizer. Sign up for RotoGrinders Premium for full access to our NFL lineup optimizer and fantasy football projections all season long.
Monday Night Football is kicking off the season with a game full of hype, narratives, and two elite QB/WR pairings. The Jets are basically Super Bowl or bust this season as seen on the show Hard Knocks which followed them this pre-season, while the Bills continue to be favorites to make a deep run this year and just need to get over that final hump in the playoffs. Brothers James Cook and Dalvin Cook get a family reunion and both backs should be very busy as the likely RB1s, as Breece Hall is expected to be eased in coming off his knee injury. We all know the upside of the Allen/Diggs connection, and the Jets are expecting something similar between Rodgers/Wilson. Still, just for good measure, they brought over Lazard and Cobb from Green Bay for some weapons Rodgers already knows very well.
NFL DFS Showdown Picks: Jets vs. Bills Week 1
Currently this game is sitting at a 45.5 total with the Bills favored by 2 points. I could see this game going a lot of different ways, from a shootout to a defensive battle, and there a lot of x-factors on both teams that will likely decide winning GPP teams. The Bills come in with the team chemistry advantage as the Allen/Cook/Diggs/Davis/Knox core is still intact, while the Jets are returning just Hall/Carter/Wilson/Conklin as key offensive pieces from last year. Rookie Dalton Kincaid is expected to be a huge part of this Bills offense so I’m excited to see how he is used tonight, and from the Jets I’m most interested in the Cook/Hall split along with the Cobb/Hardman usage at WR3.
Quarterback
We have a pretty big price difference between Josh Allen ($17,100/$11,400) and Aaron Rodgers ($14,700/$9,800), and against two strong defenses I’m not a big fan of using either in the captain spot for cash games. Rodgers should be no problem fitting in a flex spot and even Allen’s flex salary is very doable, but if you’d rather load up on high-priced skill players and only go with one QB in your main build, Rodgers would be my pick.
Running Back
Breece Hall ($12,300/$8,200) is expected to be eased in this game and likely for a few weeks to begin the year, so as the fifth most expensive player on the board he is completely off my radar in cash games and I wouldn’t even use him much in tournaments unless you’re doing 50+ lineups.
The Cook brothers are the RB targets here, as both should see significant workloads in both the ground and passing game. The Bills did bring in Damien Harris and Latavius Murray, who will almost certainly be used in some short-yardage and goal-line spots, but both are just GPP plays for me, along with Michael Carter for the Jets. Dalvin Cook ($11,700/$7,800) is my preferred play between him and James, as he gets a slightly better matchup, has similar reception upside, and is less likely to get sniped for goal-line TDs. James Cook ($12,000/$8,000) is basically the same price as Dalvin so it’s a solid strategy to interchange them on similar lineup builds, and I like stacking each with their QBs for maximum upside if they can find the endzone on a couple short passes.
Wide Receiver
Garrett Wilson ($15,600/$10,400) is my favorite play from this game, and someone I like going overweight on in the captain spot if you’re doing MME. If the Jets end up winning this game it’s going to be because Wilson had a huge game, and outside of Diggs, there just isn’t any skill player tonight that brings the combo of big-play upside along with a large volume of targets that Wilson does. Allen Lazard ($9,600/$6,400) is too pricey to trust in cash games, while Randall Cobb ($5,100/$3,400) and Mecole Hardman ($4,500/$3,000) will likely eat into each other’s volume upside and are just GPP plays for me.
Stefon Diggs ($15,900/$10,600) is a clear top play in any game he’s in, but his matchup with Sauce Gardner and the rest of this tough Jets secondary has me a bit hesitant to use him in cash games, mainly because Wilson is my priority and using him at captain with both QBs in flex spots just doesn’t leave enough salary to fit Diggs and two more flex spots. Gabe Davis ($10,800/$7,200) is similar to Lazard as he’s too expensive for cash games but does bring some GPP upside assuming defenses focus on Diggs.
Deonte Harty ($300/$200) is someone I’m very interested in tonight, as he will compete with Sherfield and Shakir for the WR targets behind Diggs/Davis, but Harty’s 4.48 speed should give him a couple deep ball opportunities each game, and he could even emerge as an every down WR if the other two struggle. Harty’s minimum price salary also makes it much easier to fit in 5 other top plays in your lineup, and if you’re doing a bunch of lineups I like mixing in Sherfield as well since he too is minimum price.
Tight End
Dalton Kincaid ($7,500/$5,000), Tyler Conklin ($7,200/$4,800), and Dawson Knox ($6,600/$4,400) are all in a similar price range, and outside of the minimum priced Harty/Sherfield these are the cheapest skill players I’d consider for cash games. Knox is probably the safest of the three as far as a known role and good chance for a redzone TD, while Kincaid is someone with a wide range of outcomes but definitely the most exciting play of the three. Conklin is just a GPP dart throw for me along with his running mate CJ Uzomah ($1,200/$800), so if I’m ranking them for pure upside it’s easily Kincaid, Knox, Conklin, Uzomah.
Defense/Special Teams
We saw yesterday how a DST can wreck (and win) a showdown slate, as the Cowboys DST obliterated the Giants. Both DSTs tonight are in play if you’re building a ton of lineups, but for cash games I’m focusing on fitting in six offensive skill players for maximum upside. The same goes for the kickers Bass and Zuerlein, as conditions tonight could be pretty wet if forecasted rain sticks around in the early portions of the game causing the field to be sloppy all game.
Monday Night Football NFL DFS Strategy
With wet conditions in play, I like having at least one of the Cook brothers in cash games, if not both, along with one of the TEs, as short passes could be a theme tonight. The Rodgers-Wilson combo is my top play with Wilson in the captain spot, while I still like jamming in Josh Allen as his 2+ pass and 2+ rush TD upside is too high to fade in a single game contest. Minimum priced Harty is my favorite p/$ play, and using him will allow you to fit in an overall solid team with big upside.
DraftKings DFS Showdown Rankings
1. Garrett Wilson – Cheaper than Allen and Diggs, Wilson is my must-play tonight, favorite player to use in the captain spot, and is the most likely player in this game to absolutely erupt.
2. Aaron Rodgers – Pretty self-explanatory play if Wilson is my favorite overall play, as this combo has easy 2+ TD upside tonight, and I like the price discount of Rodgers compared to Allen if you only use one.
3. Deonte Harty – At $200 this is not only an excellent salary relief play, but someone who could see significant snaps, and only needs one big play to smash his salary.
4. Dalvin Cook – He’s just a bit too cheap for the likely RB1 for the Jets tonight and he should get the goal-line work, while brother James Cook has to compete with Harris, Murray, and Allen for short yardage and goal-line touches.
5. Allen/Kincaid – Allen is definitely a top target if you can fit him and like the rest of your lineup, while Kincaid is my favorite TE tonight and someone I think the Bills will look to get involved early and often with short passes in wet conditions.
NFL DFS Lineup Optimizer for Monday Night Football
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