NFL DFS Showdown Lineup Optimizer Values: Jets-Chiefs DraftKings Picks
NFL Showdown season continues with the Chiefs vs. Jets on Sunday Night Football. Our expert analysts are breaking down Draftkings Showdown picks with our in-house NFL DFS lineup optimizer. Sign up for RotoGrinders Premium for full access to our NFL lineup optimizer and fantasy football projections all season long.
The 2-1 Chiefs head to the Meadowlands to face the 1-2 Jets tonight, and neither team has any new injury statuses to worry about. This is one of the those games where it doesn’t feel good clicking any name on the Jets, so most builds and the likely winning lineups will be 5-1 or 4-2 Chiefs stacks. The key tonight is getting the Chiefs players right, as they’re going to put up points some way or another, while also using the right one or two Jets players with the best shot of finding the end zone or putting up a decent stat line.
NFL DFS Showdown Picks: Jets vs. Chiefs Week 4
Currently, this game is sitting at a 41.5 total, with the Chiefs favored by 8.5 points. The Jets’ 16.5 team total is the lowest of any team this week, and I honestly think it’s a few points too high given how solid the Chiefs defense has been so far, allowing just 40 total points on the year. If the Chiefs can hold the Bears and the Jaguars to 10 points or fewer the last two weeks, I’d be shocked if the Jets found a way to 14+ points tonight, and it’s going to be a real struggle using more than one or two Jets players in cash games.
Quarterback
There’s no QB on thinner ice right now than Zach Wilson, as reports have come out that tonight could be his last game as the starter if he doesn’t show big improvement. Wilson hasn’t thrown for over 170 yards or more than 1 TD in each of his three games, and tonight’s matchup will likely continue that trend, as the Chiefs defense has allowed just 178 pass yards per game- sixth best in the league. As the fourth most expensive player from this game, I will be steering clear in cash games, and it’s even hard to see him ending up on winning GPP teams.
Patrick Mahomes is a clear cash game lock and the likely top captain play. Even with the Chiefs as big favorites, he is likely to find his way to 3+ TDs before he gets game scripted out of needing to throw, and if the Jets can miraculously keep this game respectively close, he is by far the most likely player in this game to put up the most fantasy points.
Running Back
Isiah Pacheco is another top cash game target, as he should be heavily involved regardless of the score, and with the Chiefs likely controlling this game late, Pacheco should be the guy eating clock assuming the Chiefs get a sizeable lead. He’s seeing around 3 targets per game, but I’m not counting on those much tonight, as he’s much more likely to see 17+ carries and has a great shot at 1-2 TDs. At $8,400, he is an easy flex play, and I’d even put him in the captain spot on some GPP teams. McKinnon is too pricey at $6,800 for cash game consideration, while Edwards-Helaire at $3,000 is worthy of some GPP ownership, coming off a 16-touch game, and there’s a chance he sees similar work if this game gets really out of hand.
It’s hard to see a scenario where the Jets get a lead and rely on the run game, so neither Breece Hall nor Dalvin Cook are on my cash game radar tonight. They’re still in a timeshare, they are facing the 11th-best rush defense through three games (102.7 yards per game allowed), and are very likely to be game scripted out if the Chiefs go up 2-3 TDs early. If you’re doing MME (mass multi-entry) then I’d have a few teams with Hall on them, as he actually has big play ability and just needs to break one long TD to make a big difference in tournaments at likely low ownership.
Wide Receiver
Garrett Wilson is the Jets’ only hope of staying in the game tonight, so he’s easily my favorite cash game target for them. It’s still unfathomable that he hasn’t seen 10 targets in a game yet, but if Zach Wilson really wants to keep his job, he should be peppering Garrett all night and hoping he can carry him to a solid final line. Lazard and Cobb are pure dart throw GPP plays.
Skyy Moore and Rashee Rice have emerged as the most reliable Chiefs WRs, and both are strong cash game plays. Rice is only $4,800 and coming off a 5-59 game on 7 targets, so he is my favorite p/$ skill player on KC tonight. Moore is also affordable at $6,400 and should be on plenty of Mahomes stacks in GPPs, but if you only go with one WR in cash games, Rice is my pick. MVS, Watson, Ross, and Toney are all risky plays who should only be targeted in GPPs.
Tight End
Tyler Conklin ($1,600) is super cheap and worth cash game consideration if it helps you get the Chiefs players you want. He’s seen 11 targets over his last two games, and game script should favor him seeing 5+ targets tonight. Uzomah and Ruckert are off my radar.
Travis Kelce is always a top play, and he and Mahomes should easily be the highest-owned players from this game. Kelce should be on plenty of captain spots in GPPs and possibly captain in your cash game lineup if it helps you fit in Mahomes and G. Wilson. Any lineups that don’t include Kelce should absolutely have Pacheco and / or at least one of Moore / Rice.
Defense / Special Teams
If you’re doing MME, I’d absolutely have some exposure to both defenses and both kickers, especially the Chiefs DST and Harrison Butker. It’s hard to see a scenario where Zuerlein gets many opportunities, and it’s never fun using a defense against Mahomes, but a great way to attack GPPs is to go with KC defense, Butker, and Pacheco in some lineups for max leverage against the highly-owned Mahomes-Kelce teams.
Sunday Night Football NFL DFS Strategy
I’ve pretty much spelled it out already, but almost every lineup that looks good to me is a 5-1 or 4-2 Chiefs stack, with Garrett Wilson by far my favorite Jets play. Hall would be my second favorite Jets target, followed by Conklin for extreme value, and I’d only use three Jets on a lineup if doing MME.
DraftKings DFS Showdown Rankings
1. Patrick Mahomes – No-brainer cash game lock here, and likely highest scoring captain target.
2. Rashee Rice – Best skill player target under $5,000 to help you fit in Mahomes / Kelce.
3. Travis Kelce – Highest upside skill player from this game. Some worry he gets game scripted out if Chiefs go up big early, but he’s not worth fading in cash games in my opinion.
4. Garrett Wilson – We have to use at least one Jets player in every lineup, and Garrett is the guy I want in most of them.
5. Isiah Pacheco & Chiefs DST – Great correlation play, and the best way to get an edge on the field if Mahomes / Kelce don’t produce.
NFL DFS Lineup Optimizer for Sunday Night Football
Check out LineupHQ for this Showdown slate! It’s your one-stop shop for all of the tools you need to build and edit multiple lineups with one click, such as excluding certain players, adjusting your ownership and stack preferences, and doing any mass late-swap edits.