NFL DFS Showdown Lineup Optimizer Values: Jets-Raiders DraftKings Picks

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NFL Showdown season continues with the Jets at Raiders on Sunday Night Football. Our expert analysts are breaking down DraftKings Showdown picks with our in-house NFL DFS lineup optimizer. Sign up for RotoGrinders Premium for full access to our NFL lineup optimizer and fantasy football projections all season long.

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The 4-4 Jets head to Vegas to face the 4-5 Raiders in an AFC battle with two teams looking to hang on to their Wild Card hopes. Both teams have clean injury reports, and we’ll see if Cobb remains a healthy inactive for the third straight week. I’m expecting the run games to be the stars tonight, as both Hall and Jacobs have fantastic matchups, and the shaky QB play for both teams has the WRs as secondary plays for me, although Garrett Wilson is the clear WR to target here looking at a huge target share.

NFL DFS Showdown Picks: Jets at Raiders Week 10

Currently, this game is sitting at a 36.5 total, with the Jets favored by 1 point. This is the lowest game total of the week, but the good news is that it’s the closest spread of the week, so we should be in for a competitive game until the final whistle.

Quarterback

It’s a rare scenario where both QBs are priced under $9,000, but it’s definitely justified, as they are facing tough pass defenses, each allowing under 200 pass yards per game. Zach Wilson ($8,600) gets the slightly better matchup and would be my preference if you’re set on using one in your main build, but neither he nor Aidan O’Connell ($8,400) are by any means must plays in cash games, and I will be looking to use my salary on elite skill players instead tonight.

Running Back

Breece Hall ($11,400) is my top play from this game, facing a Raiders defense allowing 138.7 rush yards/game. Hall has also seen 18 targets over the last three games and has done much more damage through the air during that span, so anything he does in the passing game will just be gravy to the likely huge night he’ll have as a pure rusher.

Josh Jacobs ($11,000) is very similar to Hall for me, as he too gets one of the best matchups in football for a running back. The Jets are allowing 137.3 rush yards per game but just 174.8 pass yards/game, so if the Raiders are going to move the ball tonight, it will be through Jacobs. In close games this year, Jacobs has seen around 5 targets, so I’m expecting that to be his receiving floor tonight, and like Hall, any passing work will just be an added bonus to the high floor and likely huge ceiling for Jacobs, making him a must play in cash games and someone to captain heavily in GPPs.

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Wide Receiver

Davante Adams ($11,600) is the most expensive player tonight, and against a top ranked Jets pass defense and likely Sauce Gardner shadowing him, he’s just a GPP play for me. Adams has been held under 10 FP in four of his last five games and hasn’t scored a TD since Week 3, so both RBs are much better ways to spend your salary in this game. Jakobi Meyers ($9,200) is also a bit too pricey, but I prefer him over Adams if you’re set on using a Raiders WR in cash games, and Hunter Renfrow ($1,000) is just a GPP flier likely to see under 5 targets.

Garrett Wilson ($9,600) is the WR to use in this game, as he’s $2,000 cheaper than Adams, yet he has gone for 14+ FP in all but two games this year. He’s seen 12+ targets in four of the last five games, and outside of the two RB1s, he’s by far the highest upside player in this game at way too low of a salary, so lock him into cash games and captain him in plenty of GPP teams. The other Jets WRs are pure GPP fliers at best.

Tight End

Tyler Conklin ($5,200) is the safest TE to use in this game, likely seeing 4-6 targets, but he’s about $2,000 pricier than I’d like to spend on him in cash games, so he’s a fade for me outside of tournaments. Uzomah, Mayer, and Hooper are the other TEs that will all likely see 1-3 targets each, but their extremely low floors have them off my cash game radar.

Defense / Special Teams

With such a low game total, I don’t mind using either DST or kicker in cash games if they fit the salary remaining in a final flex spot or two. The Jets DST ($4,200) would be my preference between the two defenses, while Daniel Carlson ($5,000) is my preference between the two kickers.

Sunday Night Football NFL DFS Strategy

Assuming your cash game lineup and most GPP lineups will have all of Hall, Jacobs, and Garrett Wilson with one in the captain spot, this leaves us with around $4,000 per flex spot remaining. Using Wilson in the captain spot will allow you to use both DSTs and Zuerlein for a 4-2 Jets stack, and that’s currently my favorite build tonight, as you won’t have to risk the zero floors of the secondary WRs or TEs.

DraftKings DFS Showdown Rankings

1. Breece Hall – Phenomenal matchup for a bell-cow RB with receiving upside. Cash game lock and a top captain play.

2. Josh Jacobs – Same exact reasoning as Hall.

3. Garrett Wilson – By far the highest-upside WR in this game with a likely 10-target floor, who also gets a slightly better matchup than the Raiders WRs.

4. Both Kickers – Depending on your salary available, I prefer Carlson to Zuerlein, but Zuerlein is $600 cheaper, so I don’t mind him at all if you only use one.

5. Both DSTs – Since I really don’t want to risk the zero floors of the super cheap WRs and any of the TEs, this leaves the DSTs as my final flex plays; the Jets DST ($4,200) is super cheap and my preferred play between the two.

NFL DFS Lineup Optimizer for Sunday Night Football

Check out LineupHQ for this Showdown slate! It’s your one-stop shop for all of the tools you need to build and edit multiple lineups with one click, such as excluding certain players, adjusting your ownership and stack preferences, and doing any mass late-swap edits.

Also, make sure to check out RG’s brand new SimLabs tool for creating lineups based on game simulations and your custom settings!

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About the Author

naapstermaan
Erik Wardenburg (naapstermaan)

Erik Wardenburg (aka naapstermaan) has been playing fantasy sports since 2005 and DFS since 2010. He went to UC Davis, majoring in Economics, and began working with RotoGrinders in 2015. He currently manages the lineups page for MLB, NBA, and NFL, provides Consensus Value Rankings for MLB and NBA, and manages The Situation Room for NBA. Erik has made multiple Live Finals in MLB, NBA, and NFL on a variety of sites and enjoys grinding small/medium stakes every day. Follow Naap on Twitter – @naapstermaan