New York Jets vs. Cleveland Browns Odds, Prediction, & Pick
Jets vs. Browns Odds
| Jets Odds | +7.5 |
| Browns Odds | -7.5 |
| Over/Under | 34.5 |
| Date | Thu, Dec. 28 |
| Time | 8:15 p.m. |
| TV | Prime Video |
This week’s edition of Thursday Night Football will feature Breece Hall and the New York Jets against Joe Flacco and the Cleveland Browns from the shores of Lake Erie. Entering play, the Jets are one of four teams in the AFC to be mathematically eliminated from playoff contention. The Browns are 10-5 and can put themselves in prime position to secure the 5-seed in the AFC playoff picture with a win this evening.
Ahead of kickoff in this matchup, oddsmakers have priced the Browns as 7-point favorites on the spread. The total for this contest is set at over/under 34.5 points.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where NFL bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
New York Jets
What to expect from Trevor Siemian
Across the last two weeks, Trevor Siemian has thrown 75 pass attempts, throwing only 1 touchdown against 3 interceptions. In those two games, he ranks 39th out of 42 quarterbacks in EPA/play (min. 10 plays), 34th in success rate, and 38th in air yards. Only Zach Wilson and Sam Howell have a worse passer rating than Siemian in that span, and only 6 signal callers have committed turnover-worthy-plays at a higher rate. Only Dorian Thompson-Robinson, Sam Howell, Zach Wilson, and Mike White have averaged fewer yards per attempt.
Simply, New York’s offense has minimal upside in this matchup, and they are far from a lock to score even 10 points on Thursday, facing a dominant Cleveland defense.
Jets defense playing at an elite level
The Jets will not be playing any postseason games this January, but that is not the fault of their defense. New York ranks 3rd in defensive DVOA for the season and they have been even better across the last month, ranking 2nd in defensive DVOA since Week 13.
During that 4-game stretch, the Jets secondary unit has held Tua Tagovailoa to 224 passing yards, CJ Stroud to 91 passing yards, Desmond Ridder to 121 passing yards, and Tua Tagovailoa to 243 passing yards. New York’s run defense has been strong as well, having allowed 102 rushing yards or fewer in each of those four contests.
Cleveland Browns
Joe Flacco hoping to continue winning ways
Joe Flacco and the Browns lost 36-19 to the Rams in Week 13, but they have not lost since – defeating the Jaguars, Bears, and Texans in the process. Flacco has played only four games for Cleveland in 2023, but he already leads the team in passing yards and passing touchdowns, with only one fewer completion than Deshaun Watson, who has appeared in six games.
Nevertheless, it has not been all sunshine and rainbows for Flacco during December, despite the fact that he has led the Browns to a 3-1 record. Even if we exclude his first start against the Rams, Flacco ranks only 17th in EPA/play and 17th in success rate among quarterbacks with at least 50 plays across the last three weeks. From Week 14 to Week 16, Flacco ranks 18th in passer rating and 20th in turnover-worthy-play rate.
He has been able to make up for his mistakes in recent weeks due to the lack of defensive talent he has faced, but Thursday will be a much tougher test for him.
Cleveland defense managing injury bug heading into Week 17
On Thursday, Cleveland will be without edge defender Ogbo Okoronkwo, linebacker Anthony Walker, safety Grant Delpit, defensive tackle Maurice Hurst, and safety Rodney McLeod on the defensive side of the ball.
Walker, one of the better coverage linebackers in the NFL, also missed last week’s action, in which the Browns allowed tight end Dalton Schultz to catch 8 passes for 61 receiving yards. Delpit has been one of the league’s best safeties in coverage this fall, ranking 20th out of 95 players at his position in coverage grade, per PFF. Hurst has been a dynamic player as a depth piece for Cleveland in 2023, ranking well above the league average as both a run defender and a pass rusher.
Still, the Browns defense projects well in Week 17, facing an extremely hobbled New York offense that is missing multiple offensive lineman and lacking talent at the skill positions outside of Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson.
Jets vs. Browns – Picks & Predictions
The Jets have one of the least healthy offensive line units in the entire NFL, with Alijah Vera-Tucker, Connor McGovern, Wes Schweitzer, and Duane Brown each on injured reserve. The Browns have their own offensive line issues, with Dawand Jones, Jedrick Wills, and Jack Conklin each on injured reserve. Both teams are on their fourth different starting quarterback this season, which only further amplifies the offensive issues that are to be expected.
On top of the offensive issues plaguing both of these teams heading into Week 17, the Jets and Browns have been playing elite defense during the last month – ranking 2nd and 3rd, respectively, in defensive DVOA since Week 13. Kevin Stefanski and the Browns like to play at a quick pace, but they might be forced to slow things down tonight against a strong defense on a short week.
Defensive scores and turnovers are always high risk factors in these situations, but both offenses are likely to struggle mightily to put points on the board on Thursday. The under is a worthwhile risk.
PICK: Under 34.5 (-115, Fanatics Sportsbook)
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