New York Jets vs. Kansas City Chiefs Odds, Prediction & Pick
Chiefs vs. Jets Odds
| Chiefs Odds | -7.5 |
| Jets Odds | +7.5 |
| Over/Under | 41.5 |
| Date | Sun, Oct. 1 |
| Time | 8:20 p.m. |
| TV | NBC |
This week’s 14-game NFL Sunday slate will conclude with a matchup between the Kansas City Chiefs and New York Jets at MetLife Stadium. Patrick Mahomes and company have won back-to-back games and will be looking to take a stronghold on the AFC West division lead with another win. Zach Wilson is still looking for his first win as a starter in 2023.
Ahead of kickoff in this matchup, oddsmakers have priced the Chiefs as 7.5-point favorites on the spread. The total for this contest is set at over/under 41.5 points.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where NFL bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
Kansas City Chiefs
Patrick Mahomes looks to stay hot
Last weekend, Patrick Mahomes had his best game of 2023, completing 24-of-33 pass attempts for 272 passing yards and three touchdowns. After scoring 34 points in the first half, Mahomes and the rest of the starting offense were given much of the second half to rest while the second unit put the finishing touches on a win.
There are extremely strong arguments to be made that Mahomes is the best quarterback in the entire NFL, which is only further supported by the fact that he excels in all situations. Against the blitz, under pressure, on deep throws, and on short throws – Mahomes gets the job done. Even in what may seem to be a difficult matchup, this offense should have little trouble moving the football and putting points on the board.
Chris Jones making a difference
In the season opener, Chris Jones was not with the team due to an ongoing contract dispute. In Jones’ absence, the Chiefs’ defense generated only a 15.5% pressure rate in a loss against the Detroit Lions. Jones returned to the field in Week 2, and the Chiefs’ pressure rate jumped to 36.4%. Last weekend, this unit had their best week yet, pressuring the Chicago Bears on 41.2% of their dropbacks, according to PFF. Jones and this defense should have another strong performance on Sunday Night Football against a porous New York offensive line that has allowed nine sacks through three contests this fall.
New York Jets
How bad is Zach Wilson?
Entering play in Week 4, Zach Wilson ranks 33rd among qualified quarterbacks in QBR, 33rd in success rate, and 34th in EPA/play. His 7.0 air yards per attempt ranks 25th, which is a function of his physical limitations, in addition to the playbook being limited due to Wilson’s inability to throw the ball downfield with any confidence. Per PFF, Wilson has completed only 36.1% of his pass attempts for 3.7 yards per attempt when under duress so far in 2023. In 2022, Wilson had a 1-to-6 touchdown-to-interception ratio when under pressure, completing 30.1% of his pass attempts for 4.2 yards per attempt. Following back-to-back weeks with only 10 points scored, the New York offense is going to have significant issues once again in this matchup.
New York defense struggling to begin 2023
Last season, Sauce Gardner and DJ Reed led one of the league’s elite defensive units, but things have not gone according to plan to begin the new campaign. Through three games, New York ranks 20th in defensive EPA/play and 15th in success rate. This defense has been particularly poor against opposing passing attacks, ranking 25th in Dropback EPA/play and 25th in Dropback success rate. Facing Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid is not a great opportunity for a bounce back performance.
Chiefs vs. Jets – Picks & Predictions
In a matchup such as this one, it is important not to overthink things. Kansas City has one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL, a top-10 defense, and a Super Bowl winning coaching staff. New York has the worst quarterback in the league under center and has surrounded him with a poor offensive line and under-performing defense. The Jets have scored 20 points total across the last two weeks with Wilson at the helm. Kansas City has scored fewer than 20 points only once since November 2021 with Mahomes on the field. The road favorites have value here.
PICK: Chiefs -7.5 (-110, Fanatics Sportsbook)